BREXIT

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05 Feb 2016 10:35 by Mickyfinn Star rating. 1334 posts Send private message

Goldman Sachs the US investment bank today predicted a 20% fall in the value of Sterling if Britain leaves the EU. That of course could be just scaremongering since they are part funding the campaign for Britain to stay in. However I do believe Sterling will be adversely affected if the referendum vote is to leave.

That fall in the UK currency will adversely impact most expats living in Spain and elsewhere. It will also devalue your overseas property in Sterling terms. Many of us will remember the dark days of 2009 when Sterling crashed to parity with the Euro. There was then a mass exodus of British pensioners back to Britain.

Now I read in the Guardian:-

Other negative effects could also include Pensioners discovering that their pensions are no longer increased every year at the same rate as those of people living in the UK - as happens now.

EU countries could ban UK citizens from buying second homes in their countries after Brexit, and existing homes could be taxed more heavily because EU rules on free movement of capital would no longer apply to Britons.

British visitors to mainland Europe would no longer be “fast-tracked” through the EU lines at passport control, unless the UK was willing to agree that there would still be full free movement of people between the UK and EU. It is unlikely that the EU would require British citizens to have visas to visit the EU - as long as the UK, in return, didn’t demand that the citizens of any EU country (such as Romania) needed a visa to visit Britain.

Of course one of the main reasons British voters would go for Brixit is to free up the government to restrict EU migration. Retalitation by other EU states is inevitable.

The truth is that if the UK exits the EU all existing treaty arrangements will cease and new ones will be required to be negotiated. That includes the right to reside and receive free health care in the EU for retired Brits. New negotiations will be long and protracted and the existing status of British expats will come under question.

I think every expat retired Brit. currently living in the EU needs to start planning now their own Brixit or at least have some contingency plan in mind. The vote is likely to be in June this year and the outcome is far from certain.

 

 


This message was last edited by Mickyfinn on 05/02/2016.



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05 Feb 2016 10:48 by Team GB Star rating. 1233 posts Send private message

Team GB´s avatar

That fall in the UK currency will adversely impact most expats living in Spain and elsewhere. It will also devalue your overseas property in Sterling terms.

I don't wish to be pedantic Micky but the more the pound falls against the Euro the more pounds you will have when transfering the sales proceeds back to the UK - Thats the only good news re BRIXIT



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05 Feb 2016 10:59 by randolph Star rating. 168 posts Send private message

You missed one out Mickyfinn,

Taking back van loads of wine/beer will also be a thing of the past.

 

 





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05 Feb 2016 11:37 by Mickyfinn Star rating. 1334 posts Send private message

I agree GB selling in Euros to take back to UK on the face of it looks a good prospect. Until you consider the potential market collapse a Brexit will almost certainly cause. If we learn from history from the recent recession it's that without the British the Spanish property market dies.

Those wanting to take a risk would be better off trying to sell now before the vote depresses the market.





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05 Feb 2016 11:46 by juandos Star rating. 26 posts Send private message

"The truth is that if the UK exits the EU all existing treaty arrangements will cease and new ones will be required to be negotiated."

Frozen State Pension

Pay for private health care (prescriptions etc) - added cost for pre-existing conditions 

Possible double taxation if that treaty goes.

Time to burn my passport and head for Calais via any immigrant friendly route.





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05 Feb 2016 11:50 by baz1946 Star rating. 1838 posts Send private message

Not worth the worry as if everything goes according to plan we wont leave. The governments of the day have a really excellent way of "Fiddling" the figures to make it look as if most, if not all of England voted to stay in.

Goldman Sachs is the bank that helped Greece to fiddle the amount of its deficit so it could meet EU conditions, this is also the bank that backed dodgy house mortgage's in the US, like driving by a beetle infested wooden house and lending thousands on it, along with many other thousands of same like homes, which helped start the US housing crash. This also the same bank that said 8 years ago the price of oil would hit $200 a barrel. This is the same bank thats been fined £3.5 billion over the mortgage scam and massive housing crash they helped to add fuel to. The list of dodgey dealings they are involved in goes on and on....Hardly a bank to take much notice of.

It's not like we even do great business within the EU, we actually sell more to the outside then the inside.

Brits were buying house's in Spain before the EU and the so called free movement, granted not on the scale as of past, if this got stopped it would make the last housing crash look like a kid falling of a bike.

In reality no one knows what would happen so how on earth can the likes of Cameron keep shouting the bad news for leaving, he wants in for one reason and one reason only, like Neil Kinnock did, the whole family got on the EU gravy train. Heaven alone knows who else gets a wage from being in the EU.

If Cameron cared one bit about the UK we wouldn't have anything like the mess we have now, the man is in my book a bigger lier then blair, with less backbone as well. What kind of man is it that wants Turkey and its people to join up?

The Brits that are already in, or going to Spain are being penalised anyway with the UK government wanting to stop many extras they get as it is, fuel payments, out for more then one month, etc etc just two for the moment, with more to come.

But as we wont be leaving it matters not.





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05 Feb 2016 12:13 by Mickyfinn Star rating. 1334 posts Send private message

The migration crisis has come at a truly awful time for the referendum vote. It is turning the British off the EU big time. Had that not happened I would not be as concerned that Brexit would succeed. As it is now the vote is on a knife edge. The last few polls have it fifty fifty with 17% undecided. I know opinion polls have an unreliable reputation but the issue of EU migration, not just refugees will influence many in voting to leave.

Syrian refugees under current EU law can become nationalised within 3 years. They will be then free to legally live anywhere within the EU. UKIP is exploiting that fact in their exit campaign and unfortunately it’s succeeding.





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05 Feb 2016 13:07 by windtalker Star rating. 1200 posts Send private message

What the EU needs is a universal benefits system this is the biggest problem we have in the UK with all the scrongers within the EU including Spain coming over to the UK and straight on the dole full NHS care with out paying a penny in to the system so what does a UK citizens get on the dole in Spain when they have not paid a cent in to the spanish nothing they are not even eligible for care under the Spanish NHS system .





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05 Feb 2016 13:22 by baz1946 Star rating. 1838 posts Send private message

 so what does a UK citizens get on the dole in Spain when they have not paid a cent in to the spanish nothing they are not even eligible for care under the Spanish NHS system .

Considering supposedly as we are all in it together, and pretty much the same thing should happen in the UK, as we have been told on many occasions in the past...Why isn't it then?

When the UK even mentions a hint of doing this the EU says "Oh no you wont"

 

 





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05 Feb 2016 13:31 by ads Star rating. 3067 posts Send private message

Given all the insecurities associated with Brexit would it not make sense to write a clear list of questions relating to your specific concerns and pose them to British MEPs requesting speedy replies, and then inform everyone on this forum of their responses. How can anyone, hand on heart, have full knowledge of all the ramifications and implications without full clarification of the facts, which is surely essential before drawing any conclusions. 





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05 Feb 2016 13:33 by bobaol Star rating. 2262 posts Send private message

bobaol´s avatar

The EU does have universal rules on benefits, residency, healthcare and so on. Read their directive on residency rules for living in another EU country. It's only UK that ignores them. They don't even have a residents register (well, they do but it's voluntary).

And saying "It's not as if we do great business within the EU" ignores the fact that about 45% of exports go to those 27 countries, a bit over £200 billion a year. Two thirds of that figure is in goods, not services. If that's not "great" business then please explain your definition.

That UK exports account for 55% to the other 170 ish countries in the world puts the percentages firmly in the EU bloc favour. It also ignores the fact that trading to other large nations, like China for example, has generally come about by EU negotiations.

And it's a shame most of the argument comes down to immigration. Loads of press and social media comment seems to suggest immigration would stop overnight which is patently rubbish. The comments also seem to suggest UK could get rid of EU migrants but the EU would keep UK migrants because "they are worth more". Just how arrogant is that?

 

 

 





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05 Feb 2016 13:53 by Tadd1966 Star rating in Los Montesinos. 1773 posts Send private message

I agree we need a common EU policy on welfare so all EU citizens get the same help when they need it where ever they live and whatever nationality they have (I would do the same for health care, education, taxes and pensions) but one step at a time

Another way to stop non British EU citizens getting over generous UK benefits is to overhaul the UK benefits system and stop paying the Brit benefit scroungers and the multiple generations who live on benefits maybe adopt a system similar to what they have in Spain and use the money saved to pay off the deficit or education, job creation etc.

If the UK exit there are a lot of companies who will move out of the UK, close businesses down and transfer major contracts to EU countries same as many threatened during Scotland's vote

 

 



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05 Feb 2016 14:36 by BigAl2015 Star rating. 187 posts Send private message

Given all the insecurities associated with Brexit would it not make sense to write a clear list of questions relating to your specific concerns and pose them to British MEPs requesting speedy replies, and then inform everyone on this forum of their responses. How can anyone, hand on heart, have full knowledge of all the ramifications and implications without full clarification of the facts, which is surely essential before drawing any conclusions. 

Asking politicians / MEP's questions in the hope of a clear and truthful answer, GOOD LUCK WITH THAT ONE (lol)

 





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05 Feb 2016 14:44 by baz1946 Star rating. 1838 posts Send private message

And saying "It's not as if we do great business within the EU" ignores the fact that about 45% of exports go to those 27 countries, a bit over £200 billion a year. Two thirds of that figure is in goods, not services. If that's not "great" business then please explain your definition.

As you are aware you can read a thousand different facts about leaving or staying but the true fact is the EU sells more to the UK then we sell to it, fact is about a 50 billion deficit running at currently about 100 billion, if the UK left the EU would they want to destroy that?

The Lisbon Treaty stipulates that any country leaving the EU still has to trade with that country, it's words as we know, would it happen?

The EU is not a growing business fact is that in 2025 it will be about 22% down from now, which is from about 37% in 1973.

70% of the UK GDP is home grown yet is still subject to EU laws.

The largest investor in the UK is not from within the EU, it's the US of A.

Norway deals with the EU and pays roughly 340 million €'s a year to do so, the UK pays roughly 51€ a day.

Not so much negotiation went on with China thanks to the EU, more to do with the undercutting of almost everything made is from China, and they have by the same undercutting destroyed many countries manufacturing outlets, and if any country told China we are not going to deal with you anymore China would say "Fine go buy it somewhere else then".

As for immigration and the lack of its control thats not the main issue for leaving, the main issue is the way the EU has treated the UK over the many years with it's regulations and stupid rules it imposed on a totally different culture, plus of course the cost, which also as you know it hasn't and wont account for.

Who is being arrogant in not wanting more to come to the UK, we hardly have the work or money for the Brits as it is, forget the media and government telling you how unemployment is going down while in the same breath another 4,000 plus here their and everywhere get the sack, why does a person decide to live in Spain as opposed to the country they were born in, is it the weather, the cheap living, the lack of no-go areas, or is it the fact they don't want to be a stranger in their home country, or to be warned that the UK will be taken over by such and such rubbish, arrogance is fine talk when for the most part all you see are the faces of the native Spanish people as neighbours, forgetting that the UK people have to put up with faces of thousands from everywhere.

 





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05 Feb 2016 15:12 by Jarvi Star rating in Halifax UK. 454 posts Send private message

Well said Baz

The eu is rotten to the core and the sooner we get out of this over-inflated bureaucracy the better. I missed out on the last vote because of my age, this time I wont. All the scaremongers will try to persuade ppl to stay in. The bottom line is that they need us more than we need them and the only way to change anything is for the British public to vote to leave. They cannot be trusted ..As crazy as it sounds just look at the Eurovision song contest ..you can guess the votes before it even starts, all the pals vote together leaving Britain and the few honest countries on the sideleines.

Any brake on benefits will be voted down, as will anything else (very little) that has been asked for





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05 Feb 2016 15:32 by hughjardon Star rating in Jaywick Sands. 397 posts Send private message

hughjardon´s avatar

Baz you are begining to sound like Enoch Poweel mate

Calm down youll have a heart attack

Love Hugh xx

And micky you must be Irish as parity better if your selling your Slaughpanish Home and moving back to UK

 


This message was last edited by hughjardon on 05/02/2016.

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05 Feb 2016 15:51 by baz1946 Star rating. 1838 posts Send private message

Good ole Enoch who they told "Nothing like what you are saying will ever happen"...Leave you to judge on that one.

Be hard for me to have a heart attack, as my staff have told me on many occasions " B*****d you have no heart at all , not true or perhaps it's because I send a car around to pick them up when sick, give no time of for family funerals, nothing given for hospital operations, I employ them as they are, if bits are removed that breaches my rules and means a pay cut.

I have no stress, no worries, after all I deal with the great British Public....The W****rs.





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05 Feb 2016 16:11 by Mickyfinn Star rating. 1334 posts Send private message

Javi's post is an example of why I worry about the referendum. Long on emotion and short of accurate facts. I suspect that 90% UKIP voters feel as Javi does.

BRIXIT will seriously impact different people. Pensioners beyond retirement age living within the EU will be hurt the most. I simply don’t believe EU states will allow their free universal healthcare to continue if it's then not reciprocated in the UK. Will the British government allow EU migrants free healthcare if they move outside the EU? I don’t think so.

That form of quid pro quo will be followed right across the EU. If the Brits make it difficult for EU migrants then it follows the Spanish et al will.

For British tourists it matters not because most take out travel insurance. Private medicare for pensioners is impossible since the over 65’s and existing conditions are barred and the costs unaffordable.  The drop in Sterling will hurt all Brits and likely make holidays in Europe expensive. Property in Europe will be 25% more expensive.

I don’t think the ordinary expat Joe or Jane has yet considered the personal impact of Brexit. It’s a slow train coming and nobody is really prepared.

European Parliament president Martin Schulz says in London today: 'Many of my colleagues say behind closed doors: 'Don't stop a rolling stone. If the Brits want to leave, let them leave'

 


This message was last edited by Mickyfinn on 05/02/2016.



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05 Feb 2016 16:51 by Tadd1966 Star rating in Los Montesinos. 1773 posts Send private message

Ok UK leaves EU and then all the bad things predicted actually happen and UK economy is a disaster.

Cap in hand and realising our mistake we vote to go back and rejoin EU, we have to take on Euro and lose all vetos we currently have and we will be worse off than we are now

If the UK is succesful once departted how long before the richer areas of the UK decide to leave the UK and go as they are fed up wth propping up the poorer areas and want their own taxes, laws, health care, benefits etc

We need change in the EU but I want to be part of that change and pray for a more united EU with the same rights for every citizen.

Devolution is NOT the answer and growth together is



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05 Feb 2016 17:06 by baz1946 Star rating. 1838 posts Send private message

 The drop in Sterling will hurt all Brits and likely make holidays in Europe expensive. Property in Europe will be 25% more expensive.

Well, Mickyfinn I can see your points raised, but do you foresee a world where the pound has such a bad exchange rate that for the most Brits wont travel, the US Dollar once nearly went one to one yet plenty still went to the US, the Euro didn't do so well a year or so back, still people used it and bought with it.

The travel companies might, and could drop prices (Do we doubt they would) from the UK as it would seem airports not under EU regulations might be able to drop items like landing fee's and the such, also if folk didn't travel in the thousands as they do now airlines would have to do something to get them back.  

As it seems that for the most part we are talking Spain if all these extras caused more expensive houses and as it would appear that mostly brits buy in the bulk could they afford to lose house deals, or would everything sort itself out.

You are spot on about the average Joe and Jane not knowing the full impact of the UK leaving, then again these same people didn't expect...What was it the EEC to turn into the EU as we now know it and cause so many problems, mostly rules and costs.

I honestly do believe that many are sitting on the sidelines waiting for one country to leave to see the outcome before they decide, it would appear that no one wants to be the first.

But then I am one who believes we wont get the chance to leave.





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