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Really, windtalker? There are, indeed, hundreds of sites out there and lots of them say the pound is overvalued.
Finance Mentor for one. IMF a broker? They've been saying it for years and are still saying it. You posted a load of rubbish and there are as many saying the pound is overvalued as saying undevalued, if not more. Taking 3 links and calling it 3% is stupidity of the highest order. At least I put links in rather than a bland statement that every country in the world is saying it is undervalued which is, quite clearly, a lie.
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It's a bit like which side of the fence you put your bias. Like some papers saying UK exports at a record high whilst totally ignoring that the record level of imports far outweighs this. You could say its good for British exporters as their goods are now cheaper but not even mentioning that the amount of imports will push prices up for the ordinary joe who doesn't actually export goods.
One paper firmly on the Brexit side says its good for exporters and the low value of the pound is pushing UK forward. A paper on the Remain side will point out that the cost of imports is getting more expensive and that inflation is rising higher than wages.
Horses for courses. Until the talks start (next week?) no-one knows what the outcome will be but just searching for things that bear out what some actually want to hear whilst sticking their fingers in their ears and ignoring what they don't does no good at all.
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Bobaol you say papers are claiming exports are at a record high, while at the same time ignoring the record level of imports far outweighing this? Get real, the record level of imports is because raw materials for the exports at a record high have to come from somewhere. We all know the UK is a MANUFACTURER of goods, and that raw materials have to come from somewhere.
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Really? So we need all those tomatoes and oranges to produce goods for export, do we? As I said, depends on which way your bias lies.
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Bobaol you should be in politics, you certainly try for the spin. Tomatoes and oranges are only a small part of a much bigger picture that should also be considered in your claims. It seems you are trying to make statistics fit like a square peg in a round hole. Oh, and a square peg will fit a round hole if you make the hole big enough.
This message was last edited by robertt8696 on 11/03/2017.
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Oh, another thing Bobaol, Tomotoes are a base ingredient in Tomato sauce, and soup, and Oranges make Marmalade. I suggest you contact firms that make such goods, and ask where they EXPORT to
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Micky
In many respects I like Richard Dawkins. He is an authority on evolution and tells it as it is when it comes to religion.
But labeling people 'ignorant' when they have a different view from him puts him in the same PC wishy-washy group that he normally attacks.
I have great sympathy for his views on referenda for constitutional issues and feel that in many situations. A 2/3 of the votes cast (or better still) more than 50% of the total electorate is the correct way to go. But not in the case of Brexit, for the simple reason that we were railroaded into the EU without a proper plebisite in the first place. ie we should never have been in so it would be deeply unfair to stop the majority from taking us out.
As I have said elsewhere we need some sort of constitutional comission to decide the correct way forwards for deciding constitutional matters. If the Monarch will not take part then it is left to politicians and we will get solutions like the shambles we have with the H o L. The separatists in Scotland are pressing for another referendum. Eventually the rachet will fall their way, but we are talking about the break up of our Nation and the vast majority of us have never had an input.
We should not consider breaking up the UK without at least a vote of 50% of all those entitled to vote in Scotland or a majority of the whole of the UK. And in the same way if wew were to wish to return to the EU we should apply the same standards.
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"financial analysis only exists to give astrology a good name."
I like that!
Astrologists, by chance, get it right 50% of the time.
Financial analysists, by bias, get it wrong most of the time!
Money is the same as any other commodity, worth what people will pay for it. The GBP can only be over or undervalued when politicains rig the markets (exchange controls etc).
BTW the GBP has fallen against the Euro and the US dollar because we have printed money. The E bank also printed a small amount so it is to be expected that we would have a greater fall against the dollar than the Euro. All those that keep banging on about the fall being totally due to Brexit need to expain why they beleive it would not have fallen to some extent anyway (as it was doing between Oct 15 and May 16).
This message was last edited by tteedd on 11/03/2017.
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Yes, robertt8696. €38.5 billion worth of food and drink a year from the EU is only a small part of the bigger picture. Now, about the size of this square hole?........
And just as an aside, from the people who really know (ONS) the value of exports fell in Jan 2017 to £28.3 billion pounds and the amount of imports increased to £31.8 billion compared with the previous month.
Now, I'm not saying UK is not an important trading partner, I also think it will continue to be so after Brexit (maybe not straight away but once it all settles down) but I do object to the amount of, quite frankly, BS that gets trotted out whether its the value of this or value of that or number of migrants to UK which are grossly inflated by some posters.
Nissan UK is doing marvellously well and exports most of its production. Unfortunately, it imports most of its components which, at the moment, attract no tariffs. Who knows what the price will be if (big IF) those kick in?
Hopefully some more enlightened people will be doing the Brexit negotiations on both sides rather than people who pluck figures out of the air to prove their point. And, hopefully, it will all work out well for the UK and the EU together. The last thing we need is animosity.
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Bobaol your spin knows no bounds, you yourself say, " I do object to the amount of, quite frankly, BS that gets trotted out whether its the value of this or value of that." What is the value of imports and exports, of which you so happily spout about? talk about hypocracy.You then finish with, " The last thing we need is animosity." What is your complaining about import and export if it is not animosity?
You seriously need to get a reality check.
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Oh, furthermore, what is a square hole? I stated it was a SQUARE peg in a ROUND hole. You cannot even get this fact right.
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tteedd -All those that keep banging on about the fall being totally due to Brexit need to expain why they beleive it would not have fallen to some extent anyway (as it was doing between Oct 15 and May 16).
Sterling since 2008 has recovered along with the UK economy after the great recession. Before the vote it was stable against all currency baskets. The market did not believe the vote to leave would succeed.
On 24th June Sterling fell and since the second round of QE prompted by the Brexit vote it has declined slowly toward article 50 being triggered. The current low value of Sterling is entirely due to Brexit. Normally with inflation heading towards 2% and beyond and GDP growth of 2% Sterling should be performing far better than it is.
All financial experts I have read and my own judgement agree that Brexit is the cause for the depressed currency. I don't see Sterling starting to perform again for many a year.
What would lift it is a favorable trade deal with the EU but you bet on that at your peril. The risks of a disaster in the negotiations are far greater and entirely predictable
This message was last edited by Mickyfinn on 11/03/2017.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Micky
This is specially for you
The pound was as low as 1.04 in 2008,1.13 in 2009, 1.12 in 2010, 1.14 in 2011, 1.14 in 2013, did we have a brexit in all those years?
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No you and the rest of us had the greatest recession since the thirties.
Of course for the British economy a low currency is a positive apart from the inflationary effects it causes. Many people in market investment see that as a positive as well.
So unless you are a poor pensioner living in Spain a rubbish Sterling value suits the narrative well.
This message was last edited by Mickyfinn on 11/03/2017.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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MICKEY you are insulting 90% of the folk on here WHEN you mention poor PENSIONERS in SPAIN
YOUR POST has ruined this SITE in my OPINION
ITS got people's back up and ALOT OF effort has been lost in OTHER areas on the SITE because of its DOMINANCE
I SHALL BE GLAD TO SEE THE BACK of it NEXT WEEK when TM pulls that TRIGGER
Hugh
This message was last edited by hughjardon on 11/03/2017.
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Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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"Before the vote it was stable against all currency baskets."
Micky
For the Euro that has not been the case.
That is the period that I have been very interested (2002+) in the exchange rate, simply because I have been buying and selling properties in Spain. It has been up and down like a Yo-yo.
I got 1.64 when I first took money to Spain and is has been nearly to parity twice to my knowledge (before Brexit) as well as back up in the 1.40s!
I repeat, when a country prints money the value of the currency inevitably goes down. As you suggest this normally leads to inflation later. So far we are bucking the trend but it will not last for ever and it would have happened Brexit or no Brexit, but I know what you will blame it on if it happens.
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oh I thought the pound being low was entirely due to brexit
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The Bof E asset purchase programme started after the recession had ended long before the referendum vote. It began again in August 2016 as a direct result of the Brexit vote. Had the Uk voted to remain QE would not have begun again. The eonomy did not and actually does not in my view warrant it.
Panic set in at Threadneedle Street and they are still scratching their backsides wondering what to do about Brexit. So they do the simplest thing in their power and trash the currency making asset values rise through the roof.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Mickey, " So they do the simplest thing in their power and trash the currency making asset values rise through the roof." My opinion of that statement is the oft stated quote accompanying Mortgage adverts some years ago, and that is, "the value of your mortgage may go down as well as up". This resulted from the somewhat erratic pound during the late 80's and nineties. The value of any currency will rise and fall dependent on market conditions, and at the moment it is directly related to the triggering of Article 50, and what might ensue afterwards. Everyone needs to wait and see how the pound recovers, rather than claim that all the pound is going to do is devalue.
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"It began again in August 2016 "
"So they do the simplest thing in their power and trash the currency making asset values rise through the roof."
So it is not all due to Brexit then? Wow
You have made me look at he BoE history. It (and Wiki) seem to report as you say but I seem to remember and read about purchases in July Sept 2015. I think I actually quoted an article on this early in this thread.
However we have yet to suffer the inflationary consequences of 2009/14 and those purchases have inevitably depressed the value of Sterling long term whatever the market jitters through the Brexit period.
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