Is the EU responsible for Brexit chaos

 'The big red bus was a lie.'

Oh no not the big red bus again!

This was debated ad nausium during the campaign and that was three years ago. But it is still the thing that remoaners come up with

£350m was the gross sum, they should have used the net sum, a bit naughty but not out of line with most political claims.

The bus did not claim that all of this should go to the NHS.

Against this:

Where is the reduction in Old Age Pensions promised by the then chancellor?

Where is the immediate economic depression?

Where was the emergency budjet?

Where are the 3m job losses (many more jobs were in fact created and unemployment is the lowest for decades)?

Where is the reduction of funding for universities (The chancellor has said that all EU funding will be duplicated).

These lies went on ad nausem but still you can only talk about the red bus.

BTW: Anyone know how much per week we will be paying next year if we stay in?

This message was last edited by tteedd on 13/04/2019.

Ads, don't forget to add a link to your sources, so we can read the full text in it's context if we want to.

Your quote makes it sound rather like the EU is doomed. On the other hand:

"Eurosceptic political entrepreneurs ....no longer want to leave, but instead mold the EU into something they can work with....Public support for remaining in the EU rose across Europe after the referendum."

Sounds a bit more positive! (From the same article: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/politics-in-the-eu-since-article-50-was-triggered/)

Speaking of buses I like this one.

I am sick of Remoaners ... consistently demanding a new referendum ....why  on earth would a DEMOCRATIC country want another vote ...you have had 3 recounts of the original vote ...how does anyone know that leaving the EU is not going to be good for the UK untill we have tried it ...if it was the other way round ..the people like myself that voted out would have respected the outcome ...this is democracy ....after all if it doesn't work out we can have another Democratic Referendum and if the Remainers win then we will do the Democratic thing and Become a member again....But it is certainly not Democratic to have another Vote just because the minority did not like the outcome of the first vote...the majority of the voting that goes on in the House of commons often only gets through  on one vote a we the public have got to live with this.

I want a replay of Man U v Wolves in the FA cup because I was not happy with the result. 

tteed "BTW: Anyone know how much per week we will be paying next year if we stay in?"

The problem with that question is that a lot of the ones on EOS who are clamouring to stay in, don't live in the UK so their contributions are less than those of us who do.

Re ‘the bus’

i thought it said AFTER WE LEAVE.   Have we left ? 

Javi-The problem with that question is that a lot of the ones on EOS who are clamouring to stay in, don't live in the UK so their contributions are less than those of us who do.

Using that logic then your comments on anything related to Spain or Europe should be considered equally.

Mucky

As I own a place in Spain my comments are as valid as yours...You got it wrong yet again...

It really is a tad infantile to suggest people don't have a right to express an opinion. After all, a public forum is just that. ** EDITED - Against forum rules ** During the referendum, campaign claims were made on both sides that were given the benefits of hindsight perhaps over the top. Political campaigns always usually do that. I doubt most people took the claims seriously anyway or if they did it was with a large pinch of salt.

However, the cost and the consequences of the result are very real. That cannot be ignored. Nor can the incompetence of the current miserable government. Britain deserves better. The only successful route to solving the impasse is a second vote on the deal with an option to remain. I suspect sadly leave would win it marginally again and vote for the deal.. If that happens Parliament I believe would leave the EU within weeks, with the deal passed. A change of leadership would then take place and Britain could try to move on from this disaster and try to salvage something from the situation for the future.  At least the people and markets would have some clarity. Sterling may not collapse so far if a transition period results and the negative consequence sequence can be avoided. 

Why the politicos can't agree with this solution that is staring them in the face is unacceptable. 

Divide and rule is running riot here!

Seriously though it makes sense for those who for instance care about gaining trusted economic data, for us all to pull together to get the best for UK citizens in Spain and the UK, and the best way to achieve that is to make our politicians far more transparent about the actual economic detail they are using to further their arguments associated with leaving. 

This article goes some way to explain the differences in forecasting

https://fullfact.org/economy/leaving-eu-why-do-economic-forecasts-differ/?utm_source=content_page&utm_medium=related_content

My point relating to the economists for free trade was that their forecasts, using a different modelling method, proved far more accurate, following which the treasury altered their own modelling system.

The question then arose how realistic is the ongoing detail that is now being used to evaluate a no deal scenario.

So I wrote to a group of MEPS about this and only heard back from one to date ( a labour MEP) who identified 

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“The Bank of England and London School of Economics suggest that the UK's growth would have been stronger had the UK not voted to leave the EU. This research is based on forecasts of what growth may have been, and I have found this blog useful in understanding this economic modelling:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/04/02/voting-for-brexit-has-already-made-the-uk-poorer/

I have also read research that suggests that salaries are currently much lower than they were expected to be based on estimated growth since 2016.

The Labour party is concerned by any risk to growth due to the disproportionate burden this would place on the poorest in society. The TUC for instance point out that wages have fallen in real terms since 2008, with workers on average being £18 per week poorer. There are also real concerns that any economic risks would exacerbate the problem in the UK of working families living in poverty.

Finally, for interest, I have noted that while the most drastic pre-referendum forecasts were not accurate before Brexit, many of the more moderate forecasts regarding the referendum result have been shown to be accurate:

https://fullfact.org/economy/how-accurate-have-brexit-forecasts-been-referendum/

I hope this information is of some use”

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But the LSE analysis begs the question if this was based on what GROWTH might have been, have again the wrong forecasting methods been used to establish this? Have they used the original methods that were found to be in error. 

For those interested in passing on the detail to MPs and MEPs,  the following was produced in January 2019 by the economists for free trade

https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/The-Effects-of-Brexit-on-the-UK-Economy-World-Economy-Jan-2019.pdf

So when we read about specific economic data that appears questionable, perhaps best that those sufficiently concerned by this put these questions to their own MP or MEP ( via http://www.writetothem.com) and ask them for detailed clarification. If more were willing to do this then politicians would soon have to sit up and take note that they ( from all political persuasions) can’t just blithely quote figures without further detailed assessment and clarification.

Only when people take the time to do this will they see that we are all not so stupid to believe generalisations, rhetoric, etc, that we want what’s best for our country and citizens, and that depends upon trusted economic data and forecast modelling methods.

If there is some form of political misinformation occurring or holding back of relevant data or purposeful misinterpretation for political gain as opposed to what’s best for our country and its citizens, then the only way to identify that is to make them openly debate this level of detail. All too often people look to what they want to hear rather than be willing to seek out the detailed realities. Therein lies much of the problems that we see on forums such as this.

This message was last edited by ads on 14/04/2019.

Nice links ads. Thank you for posting them. They beg the question. Is economic decline a cost worth paying for the UK to leave the EU? Perhaps leavers consider it is until they experience the actuality. I lived through pre EU economic decline earlier in my life so my generation can speak from experience. Many leavers believe their current economic wealth will sustain any hardships. That belief skews their thought process.

I think if Britain could achieve economic union with the EU without the political element most people would be content. The Norway model seems to suggest that's possible the EU would likely accept it. However under the current political leadership in Britain sadly all compromise or inventive thought is cast aside.

I think if Britain could achieve economic union with the EU without the political element most people would be content.

And that is almost certainly what would have happened if Edward Heath had not been so determined to get us in at any price.

He sold EFTA, the commonwealth, industry and our fishermen out. He ageed to pay too much and should never have agreed to the CAP.

If he had negociated with a bit of backbone instead of trying to get in at any cost his negociations may well have failed. But negotiations between EFTA and the EEC would have continued. As indeed they did after we left.

Is the EU responsible for Brexit chaos? 

Apparently not, blame Ted a man who has been dead years. Whoever next?

Ted Heath (and a compliant parliament) was certainly responsible for the terms on which we joined the EEC.

Mrs May would have been responsible for the terms on which we left if she had not been so inept and if she had had a compliant parliament (she cooked her goose when she call an unnecessary election).

But see previous posts including mine of the 11th and Jarvi's of the 12th for the answer to 'who is responsible for the Brexit chaos'.

The EU was created from a series of treaties the most important being the Maastricht treaty in 1992 which essentially began the development of the EU as we know it today from an economic union to a political process. Margaret Thatcher took part in those negotiations and agreed it's intentions. John Major signed up for Britain later and led the ratification through the UK parliament with great difficulties.

The Lisbon Treat in 2007 amended further previous treaties and created the modern EU we have today. Gordon Brown signed and ratified it easily since the Labour Party has a sizable majority.

Ted Heath only began the process of joining the common market. However, he did say privately that he was fully aware that Britain was going to be fully involved in the political evolvement of Europe.

The referendum has undone over fifty years of positive British political negotiation and involvement in the community of European nations. I am sure British people who supported leave have no real grasp of the future negative ramifications this will cause their country. Only time will make that clear to future generations. That is the price we pay for democracy and freedom.

In the immortal words of Delmore Schwartz "Time is the school in which we learn. Time is the fire in which we burn."

Tteedd

As a brexiteer, and from the detail identified to date, is no deal your preferred option now or would you prefer the deal as currently stated in the EU’s withdrawal agreement ( Theresa Mays deal ). Or are you hoping that another deal is reached with the EU by finding a solution to the Irish backstop/ bespoke customs agreement? Is your understanding on this that the current talks between TM and Corbyn are aimed at getting a bespoke customs agreement with Ireland to present to the EU?

Or perhaps you see the only solution to gaining Brexit now dependent on gaining a Parliamenatary majority via a general election by choosing a party committed to exiting the EU in their manifesto?

Or do you seek an interim solution by selecting pro Brexit MEPs in the upcoming EU elections, which would place pressure on the EU Commission to find a solution to the Irish backstop/ customs agreement prior to the first sitting of the EU Parliament, as they would not want a growing influence from anti EU Parliamentarians?

In essence how do you see the Brexit you want being accomplished going forward? 

P.S. Mickeyfinn

You observed " Is economic decline a cost worth paying for the UK to leave the EU? " On what specific economic data are you basing this, and has this data been acquired by a forecasting modelling system that has now been found to have been inaccurate?

This message was last edited by ads on 15/04/2019.

Hi Ads

Difficult question.

I can give you the answer from the old joke - 'I would not have started from here'.

I would have preferred that May had put someone competant (or better still Cameron had) and with experience in charge of the negociations while preparing for leaving with as little disruption as possible if the talks failed.

The actions of the moaning remainer (not allowed to call them remoaners - I get lavatorial insults) MP's is despicable. They voted for article 50, were elected on a manifesto of leaving and in most cases spouted on about how they were going to observe the democratic will but have all the time tried to frustrate the process. If we do end up in an economic mess the fault will be thiers.

'No Deal' is used as a perjorative term. I, like most leave voters just wanted to leave the EU and all it's works. There was only leave or remain on the voting slip. This does not mean that we do not want to work together with the EU on policing security, research, education,defence and all other co-operation beneficial to both sides. (I get thoughly fed up of the 'little englander', 'racist', 'did not know what they were doing insults').

When we failed to get an acceptable agreement we should have left on the 29 March. But this was prevented by the same MP's. We should not however have assumed world trade terms unless forced.. The EU has no interest in world trade terms. I'm sure a quick interim solution could have been agreed if we did not have a PM fixed to her failed deal (or said capable negociator).

And that is the route we should take now, having first told the EU that we would sign up to the deal if the backstop is removed. ie Put it in the EU''s court.

When the term's 'no deal' and 'crash out' are used the media does litte to make the spokesmen explain. And ideed when they do try to explain why this should be they use examples that are often plain wrong and which show little understanding. They do not know for instance;

Air travel is regulated by ICAO under the Chicargo agreement.

That we were founder members of Eurocontrol before we ever joined the EU.

That trucks with TIR notices from the EU used to roll off freely at Dover before we ever joined the EU.

The correct WTO tarrifs and the fact that there is little sanction for not observing them (The trump adminstration is demonstrating that at the moment). If we did not impose tarriffs on EU goods they would have no incentive to put tarriffs on ours (we might however need to take action to stop third parties using us as a backdoor into the EU),

That we do not have a free market in services with the EU at the moment.

.....................................

One other option at the moment, as the talks do not seem to be going anywhere, is for Mrs May to propose that the government will not start the negociation on the next phase before a general election if Labour agrees to support the withdrawl agreement. That way Labour get thier general election and can negociate the future relationship themselves if they win.

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Sorry I did not see your post earlier Ads

By the way, I'm not a brexiteer, I'm a member of the electorate who voted leave. I was an ardent European in 1972 and voted 'in' in 1975 despite the indications then that joining the EEC was a mistake. I have believed since 1993 that we should leave, partly because events over the years have shown that the EU is bad for us (or not run in our interests) but mainly because of the loss of democracy. The EU could change, but we have given it 47 years and made the correct decision. The implementation has been buggered up by poor negociation and MP's who do not wish to leave.

The next few elections will be very interesting.

The British government has tried to satisfy the referendum result. They have negotiated the least damaging method of leaving the EU. The impasse currently holding Brexit up is the fact that a section of the Tory party right prefers to leave in a more damaging way because of their ideological prejudice against compromise. The EU has given all the ground they can.

That compromise is to allow Britain to remain in a customs union with the EU. They want a total no conditional separation so the UK can make deals with America, China and everyone else and not be restricted in EU trade arrangements, standards, and regulation.

Sensibly in my view, Mrs. May has been attempting to forge a leave arrangement that protects the UK from the negative aspects of WTO trading terms and the alienation of the UK closest political partners. Sadly I fear things are deteriorating badly and Britain is heading towards a self-destructive end to this entire sorry process. At least that's an end and most people want to see it done now and have ceased to care of the consequences. Until of course they impact their lives.

Someone said recently I think it was the Liverpool football manager Klopp that when people come together as partners they stay friends. When they separate they fight. Simplistic perhaps but so true. 

If the Uk leaves the EU without any deal whatever then relations with the rest of Europe in the future will become very difficult. That is not in anyone's best interests. Except of course Britains enemies.