Brexit effect

It’s all over now. Seems we have all been had by the lot of them. Biggest farce ever in political history so far. I’d sooner vote for and trust Roy Chubby Brown.

Over? I wish. How you interpret that is a mystery since you didn't explain in your post.

An extension to the Brexit deadline this month does not mean Brexit is done with. Revoking might but May has ruled that out, so on the UK goes. Forward to where exactly is anyones guess. The loss of political prestige in the world is transparent that's about the single achievement thus far of Brexit. That and the loss of £1.2 trillion of City investment now in Europe.

Micky you’ve won and got your way. Everyone can now see this is boot the can down the road until it’s dead. Have your moment of glory and stop arguing blacks white.

Just a few thoughts.....

If Brexit were to fail and we were to stay in don’t underestimate the threat of Mr F to decimate the Conservative party going forward with his “ prepared” campaign let alone the threat to disrupt the EU with an influx of MEPs who will be voted in by disillusioned and angry voters.

Might this latter point be enough for the EU to seek out a last minute sensible compromise and reword the deal to pass through Parliament?

Not sure the word ‘’sensible’’ has ever entered the head of any politician in the whole scenario. But lies, deceit and what’s in it for me maybe familiar to them.

OK I’ll reword that to “ mutually beneficial”  🤨

I agree with ads. Good politics is about the art of the compromise. The EU should move on the backstop if only to get this leave agreement done. Whatever your opinion on Brexit a smooth transition is in everyone's best interests. Expect a deal at a minute to midnight with an extension until June.

Eire will never allow the EU to compromise on the backstop.

It is there because Eire look towards a united Ireland and because when the EU and Olly decided on it. May never had the political nonce to say 'no way' in the first place.

She should have counter suggested that the border be down the English channel and out into the Atlantic. ie Eire to align with NI (to save the NI agreement) not the reverse.

The EU may still say no to an extension. Why say yes if they are not able to make the changes necessary to get 'the deal' through?

"If Brexit were to fail and we were to stay in don’t underestimate the threat of Mr F to decimate the Conservative party"

Not just the conservative party. There are a lot of Labour MP's sitting on big leave majorities who have been steadily voting against the deal. Some of these may also have sizable minorities worried about Corbin, Momentum and antisemitism.

It will cetainly lead to a very intresting election.

If the Labour opposition and the ERG come to their senses and supports the only method of a reasonable transition for the UK to leave the EU, stability both economic and political may just return to that country.

The alternative of a no deal exit is a worse case scenario. The government has set aside £4.2 billion to cope. In practice it will need triple that amount to offset the potential damage. The BOE will slash rates spend billions propping up Sterling and shortages of stables will be common place.

Given the potential for real civil unrest Mrs May deal seems like a walk in the park. Just get it done for gwards sake is my plea. 

No Mickyfinn despite your wisdom having no bounds the labour opposition have only one purpose in life and that’s to bring the government down at any costs. The welfare of the country and obligations to their constituents’ are irrelevant.   

Having read the article by Martin Howe ( chairman of lawyers for Britain) in the Sunday Telegraph this last weekend titled “Why we’ll never escape backstop in Mays deal”   it’s important to look in great detail at the fallback scenario of no deal.

https://lawyersforbritain.org/leaving-the-eu-on-wto-terms-pulling-down-the-barriers-to-world-trade

This paints a completely different picture than many have been led to believe in the media and parliament for that matter. 

So...trying to make sense of this Martin Howe’s conclusion results in the following.

If Theresa Mays deal is approved in Parliament then for at least 21 months of transition...extendable up to 4 years, we will have to obey EU laws and rules and be under the Commission and the ECJ. The big difference is that we will no longer have a vote or voice in the institutions. And during that time there will be turmoil of negotiations about our future relationship. If we do not submit to the terms offered by the EU we will automatically fall into the backstop protocol. This will put huge negotiating power into the EUs hands, since the backstop locks us out of having an independent trade policy and puts the Union at risk. This is like a game of chess...our current leadership has sacrificed all the major pieces in positions where checkmate is inevitable. The most competent and Brexit committed future prime minister could never get us out of that.The upshot is that if we agree the deal we will be locked into the backstop and there will be no way out that is under our control.

If TMs deal is defeated the actual consequences would be much less damaging than the May deal. We would have the same transition period, but would still have a vote and a voice. We would not be locked into the backstop at the end of 2020 or into the other very damaging parts of the deal -such as paying the money after 2020- and we could negotiate on an equal basis.

P.s. And now the EU president of the European council says a short extension to the Brexit process is possible ON THE CONDITION THAT TM GETS HER DEAL PASSED THROUGH PARLIAMENT!

This message was last edited by ads on 20/03/2019.

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If TMs deal is defeated the actual consequences would be much less damaging than the May deal. We would have the same transition period, but would still have a vote and a voice. We would not be locked into the backstop at the end of 2020 

Sorry, where did the above come from? The EU has already said that without an agreement there will be no transition period. If UK leaves next week without a deal then there will be no transition period.

The Irish Times

If there is no withdrawal agreement then there is no transition period either. This means the UK leaves the EU on March 29 2019 and new trading and regulatory rules come into play overnight, a potentially chaotic scenario. 

Reuters

The European Union has been clear Britain cannot have a post-Brexit transition period without it being part of a broader exit deal, Prime Minister Theresa May said on Wednesday.

And loads more in a similar so I can't say how a non transition period would be less damagin.

Mariedav,

That detail came from the article that Martin Howe QC wrote in the Sunday Telegraph on 17 th March.

The exact words at the end of his article were as follows 

“What if Mrs Mays deal is defeated for a third time?

If an extension is agreed - and there are big obstacles against a long article 50 extension actually happening - it would be an appalling betrayal of the referendum result. But the actual legal consequences would be much less damaging than the May deal. We would have effectively the same transition period, but would still have a vote and voice. We would not be locked into the backstop at the end of 2020 or into the other very damaging parts of the deal - such as paying the money after 2020 - and we could negotiate on an equal basis.”

But his earlier point was that if the deal was approved the UK would lose its negotiating power.

Also the lawyers for Britain have described the detail associated with leaving on wto rules which appears very different to what is being discussed on the media and in Parliament.

Who should we believe?

Just rescind article 50 at the election hour.  People will get over it.  Nothing will change and people like things not changing.  

If we have learned anything in this drawn-out process its an unassailable fact that Mrs May will deliver the referendum result. Even if it ruins the country divides her party and wrecks constitutional and parliamentary procedures. The woman is fixated on it with religious-like zeal. Many on here agree with that stance, I believe greater things than honouring a small majority referendum result are at play here. 

The countries actual future and the lives of its people are on the line. Make no mistake leaving the EU without a deal will impact every single person living in the UK and in Europe for a generation. The Irish conflict will return, Scotland undoubtedly will leave the UK. The economy will sink along with Sterling.

It must be right after almost 3 years to ask the British people again if they still want to leave the EU. All the knowledge and information gained in those years provides a better background for understanding the implications. If the result is still leave most remainers will I believe accept the result and political peace will reign in the country again. The deal to leave can then be adopted and accepted by almost everyone, even the Labour opposition

I keep hearing and reading about the ‘minority’ referendum vote, 48% to 52%.  I checked the numbers.   The majority was 1.2 million votes.  If that number of people turned out to demonstrate about anything I think it would be considered as ‘significant.’  The last general election was decided on I believe around 800,000.   Seems that was not a problem !

The government spent a considerable amount of taxpayers money putting a leaflet through e wry door on U.K. explaining why U.K. should vote to stay   If most people did not read it, could not understand it or decided because of it to vote as they did, why do one side of tthe argument think that if asked again they will be better informed, or more able to make a more informed decision?

I may be biased, but I have never believed that most people who vote have any logical reason for the choice they make.

Well said John.

The people who want a "peoples vote" will never accept the result of the referendum. This rubbish about being more informed is just an excuse. Unless every single person reads word for word the withdrawal agreement and fully understands it they are no better informed.

Some people’s attitude on here only demonstrate why MPs are in deadlock with the public. It’s a case of my way or teddy out of the pram. The public are not fit and proper people to decide anything.

The problem is that MPs foolishly asked the public to decide and got a shock, now they want to get out of it.

That's an excellent summary MickyFinn.  It's becoming a desperate situation and some simple pragmatism is now vital. 

For me this must start with the departure of Teresa May who has been completely blinkered from the start.  Sadly though there is no obvious replacement and we urgently need some statesmanship from somewhere.