Upturn in Spanish property sales?

The urbanisation we're invested in had several years of either poor, or no sales. There was a sales office on site, which was closed down for a few years, but recently opened up again. I speak with the people there every few months or so, and have been told that there have now been sales and resales recently, however the prices are still about 30% below the peak (this is just outside Benahavis).

The guy there tells me that prices were around 50% below at their worst, so I guess this means an improvement of sorts. Without a crystal ball, no one knows how long it will be, if ever, we get back to peak prices. But it sure wont be any time soon.

I've read about the glut of unsold property, and would suggest that there may be quite a few of these that will never get sold. But that doesnt mean that the overall market will be held back solely due to that. So, I guess I'm optimistic, in as much as, prices will recover given enough time. Probably one of those "no shit Sherlock" comments, but I think while I like to think of myself as an optimist, a degree of reality might not go astray?

All evidence is anecodtal of course, but jkust my personal observation here.

There is a development of new houses not far from where I am in El Campello. I visited the site back in 2012. I'm not sure when these houses were built but they weren't exactly new then but had obviously never been inhabited. There was still builder's rubbish in the gardens, all the shutters were down and cables sticking out of the walls showed nobody had bought any of the houses, or if they had, they hadn't done anything with them. There were also general signs of decay including a chain-link fence that had fallen over (or been pushed?), kitchen tiles that had fallen off the wall, smaller cracks in walls, evidence of light vandalism to the exterior.

The location was unnattractive. It was right by a busy and noisy road (but had no direct access to that road), and was far away from the beach or any shops. There were no interesting view, and the gradens were smal. 

My thought at the time was that those houses would never be sold. The developer would have to write off the loss and the houses would just rot until somebody took pity and flattened them.

But just by accident we passed through that area last week and decided to take a look and see what condition they werer in now. We were expecting to see a ruin. Instead, most of the houses were inhabited. Gardens had been planted, children were playing. Only about two of the about 10 houses appeared to be still uninhabited (and were looking quite a bit worse for it).

Now I don't know how far the price had to drop or what special deals they offered those buyers. But if those houses could find a buyer, the many many far nicer ones all along the coast should be able to find one too.

Sorry Roly only just picked up your message. Maybe you should have sent a pm if you wanted me to read it?

Well, I don't know, Duncan, but I wish you would stop sending me private messages to tell me how stupid I am, or how I am 'letting myself down'.    No idea what is in  the FOUR latest I have not opened - that is in less than 24 hours, but I would ask again that you stop doing it.  I have no intention of looking at them. 

If you actually did look at them you would have seen that they were actually the same message posted 4 times and not an unsolicited message but a response to one that you sent to me.

I hope that your property does increase x3 and reaches your desired 120000 euros by your date of 2025.    It would mean my property too was achieving similar rises.    But being pragmatic, I would have to point out that to achieve this, it would mean an astonishing 20% annual rise (or even a bit more, my maths is not great).   And this in two areas of Spain (yours and mine - Murcia and Almeria) which still have the highest percentage of 'glut' or unsold properties.

You are right roly2, your maths is not great. For my property to go from purchase price of 60000 in 2015 to a value of 120000 by 2025 would require an average increase of 7.2% per annum. The historical average return on Spanish property prices over the last 30 years has been around 6%. If you look at the Spanish property price index from 1987 to 2016 you cans see that prices have returned to that long term 6% per annum trend following the bubble that started in the early noughties and popped towards the end of the noughties. It's therefore not unrealistic to expect the value to be around 107,500 in 10 years or even more considering the 10 year correction in prices that has just occured. Yes, there may be a lot of excess properties around at present, but the predictions are that the backlog will disappear by 2018.

Although this thread is about Spanish prices in general, the old Polaris world property portfolio owned by Sareb is now being split up and sold to developers like properties and hotel on La Torre which was sold to the Chilean Phoenix Group who own La Quinta in Marbella. The Niklaus Golf Trail courses and properties stil remain attractive to developers and investors at the right price. If the developers start to build the infrastructure that Polaris World failed to complete, the value of these properties will rise accordingly and prices seen at the top of the market i.e. 180,000 for my apartment are not impossible over a 10-20 year period.

Just my view and I know you like to hold it up to ridicule. The truth probably lies somewhere in between and I would be fairly relaxed if my property value kept line with bank base rates which it is far exceeding at present.

Spanish friends and colleagues are amazed and quite amused with the regimentation of the Brits and their determination to dot every I and cross every T. They are used to the way Spain works and have weathered many storms that Britain has never experienced, so take your English heads off, find some Spanish company, then listen and learn – you will be surprised to learn just how Spain really works.

I have absolutely no idea what relevance your comment has here, Woodbug (have I missed something?). Never mind.

I actually agree with Windtalker's last comment (wonders never cease!) 

@Duncan the Optimist: " I would be fairly relaxed if my property value kept line with bank base rates...." - which are to all intents and purposes zero, so you'd be happy if it didn't increase in value? "... which it is far exceeding at present." How do you know? Are you sure you could sell it now for 0.25% more than you paid for it? Even if you could, by the time you factor in all the taxes and fees etc., you will still have gone into negative territory. Can you explain what you mean?

I saw a report today (Sur in English I think) saying Spanish property prices (average, generalised, cloud "ko ko" nonsense as usual) increased by 7.5% between April & June and are now back to 2004 levels. Strange, because a neighbour of mine who bought in 2004 just sold his place - for around 33% less than he paid. Guess he's a one percenter?!

Duncan - never in my life sent you a private message apart from a response to your rude one.   Then there is the plethora of unopened ones.   Why on earth you would lie about that is a mystery to me.   And it was not the maths out - I would not have believed anyone had paid 60000 euros for a Polaris World property in 2015 - I thought you had paid around 40000 euros.........   so actually nearer to 15%?     Might as well be in the billions anyway.....2025 - the magic year, is not so far away so we shall see.

Sorry  - just picking myself up from the floor - I had not seen the 180000 euros for your (2 bed 1 bathroom?) property on Las Terrazas.   That is a big jump up from the 12000 you mentioned before.

First private contact from Duncan:   

But I don't want to make myself look like a dick in public

Cheers

Second private contact from Duncan:   

2 bed apartment on Las Terrazas for 41,000€. You wouldn't even get a 1 bed apartment for that.

You are showing yourself up again ;)

People can judge for themselves about why I stopped opening your private messages. 

Yes it think there is evidence of movement in the Spain market for resales with at lot of new developments seling like the preverbial hot cakes. We bought early this year on a small developement of  houses. 3 sold last year and we had been looking for 4 years at these properties. Our old hus sold within 1 week of going on the market. O.K prices were less than price paid in 2007.

Going back to Britain and people who sold up etc. Outside London there are many areas of the U.K where property, like in Spain, is still priced at levels well below the 2007 level. For exampletting Cardiff, Sheffield etc. SWINDON is just getting back to those levels. So once again is suggest one cannot generalise and again in the words of Kirsty and Phil it's location, location location

Hi roly2, I am glad that I am keeping you amused. The 180,000 euros was the price that apartments like mine were selling for in 2006/7. Some people actually paid this.

Love your selective quotes from our pms. Amusing that you are admitting it wasn't only one way. Love the selective editing, but surprised you chose to quote from a message that you claimed you didn't read.

"2 bed apartment on Las Terrazas for 41,000€. You wouldn't even get a 1 bed apartment for that."

If you can show me a real sale on las terrazas for a 2 bed apartment for €41k, it would be most interesting. I actually enquired about the link that you provided but unsurprisingly there was no response. Like I said to you privately if you can point me at a 2 bed apartment on Las Terrazas for under €41k I would be amazed.

If you want to continue this conversation then fair enough. Like I said, "But I don't want to make myself look like a dick in public" but you obviously have no such reservations.

;)

Roberto.

"@Duncan the Optimist: " I would be fairly relaxed if my property value kept line with bank base rates...." - which are to all intents and purposes zero, so you'd be happy if it didn't increase in value? "... which it is far exceeding at present." How do you know? Are you sure you could sell it now for 0.25% more than you paid for it? Even if you could, by the time you factor in all the taxes and fees etc., you will still have gone into negative territory. Can you explain what you mean?"

Sure Roberto, more than happy to explain. I am not investing in Spanish property for short term gain. I am 54 and could retire with a comfortable pension in two weeks time. However, I am not looking to retire for at least 10 years. My purchase is putting my extra cash in in a property that I can enjoy in the short term with the view that capital appreciation in Spanish property will exceed the value if I just left the cash in the bank earning 0.25% interest.

Even after taking into account property purchase costs and sale costs and taxes, I still believe that my cash is better invested in Spanish property than in a UK bank. I might be wrong but to be honest it is of little importance. The €60k that I have invested in a Spanish property will be easily repaid over the next 10 years.

If I take into account revenue costs plus capital costs over a 10 year period it works out at around €90,000 or around €9,000 per annum. From this I will have at least 4 weeks holiday per year with only cheap air fare to factor in rather than rental costs etc.

At the end of the 10 years i will have an apartment worth somewhere between €60k and €120k and possibly more for my nephews and nieces to inherit.

With respect to the question re how do I know that my property has increased in value over 1 year compared to the price I paid, I only have to look at the sales. Properties like mine have increased over 5% in the last year but really that is not important. My timeframe isn't 1 year it is 10-20 years.

The OECD reckon that the Spain property market is the least overvalued of the top 100 property markets.

A holiday home can never make any financial sense. It is not an investment it's an indulgence like a boat or any leisure activity which requires large capital cost. I have always considered holidays as a complete change of lifestyle. I have never understood the principal of 'home from home'. If you want a home stay in the one you already have.

Over a decade value will fall and rise but in the current climate that rise is likely to be very small and will not cover your costs. In Spain property ownership is very expensive. Neither will your costs be covered by renting unless you rent long term meaning many years or the property is in a desirable location and will let easily in the summer months. Holiday letting in Spain now requires a licence, a manager and taxation.

Property is for living in, a home. Holiday homes were a gift only to developers and the Spanish taxman and a burden for anyone else.

Good hotels around the world provide holiday accommodation and a different choice of venue every year. If you multiply the costs of that over 10 years and account for maintenance overheads and hassle as a cost you will never justify the capital expenditure of buying a holiday home.

Capital of €90k invested in blue chip stocks via a good fund manager over ten years should give you an average yield of 10% annually. Enough to pay for your holidays without the grief of holiday home ownership.

I want to start by declaring my interest upfront as somebody who makes a living from selling properties, in the Costa Blanca and Costa Calida and could be considered as being bias, but I will say that certainly everything in the garden isn't rosy

It is very difficult to generalise as the market varies dramatically bt area but certainly in my area, prior to the Brexit vote, we were seeing an upturn in sales and a STEADY increase in prices, from what are low prices, compared to the original prices that the resale stock of properties were sold at

This forum really is foucsed on the UK market but the majority of buyers of the new off plan properties are not from the UK but Belgium, Holland, Spanish, and scandanavian countries, which is pushin up the prices, on many developments as fast as they are released they are sold, for example around Punta Prima

There are very few modern, key ready properties available, typically one year build off plan and around Lo Pagan, Villamartin and Mar Menor areas prices have increased between phases, phase 1, verses now phase 5 prices, by over 10% with a return to some investors fliipping properties, moving the contract to another buyer, before completion, avoiding the completion costs

Completion costs remain the biggest issue in my view, to buy a property, without a mortgage you have to add 13% to the property price of which 10% is government ttax either VAT or purchase tax, nearer 16% if have a mortgage. If the government , if we had one in Spain wanted to get the market moving one thing that would help would be the reduction of this tax, perhaps no tax on resales

Mortgages rates are good and banks are lending again, we have 1.9% fixed rates but banks will loan a higher percentage to non-british clients, 60% - 70% for British, 80%-90% for scandanavian and of course this does not include the 13% fees

Rentals, correct don't rely on income to fund a property but if you buy sensibly there is an opportunity to at least cover the costs of a Spanish property, I have clients doing that, even some showing a 9% plus yiels because certainly around Villamartin they are screaming out for 3 bedroom rental properties

So prices are increasing, demand for new off plan modern properties is high but Brexit has kicked it in the crutch for the moment as far as the UK is concerned, but very dependant on area

This message was last edited by inspectahomespain on 04/09/2016.

A good post Inspectahome, an interesting perspective.  

As you imply the Spanish government have always been extraordinarily greedy with their stamp duty and despite all the denials it is a fact that the Spanish still try to avoid paying the both the purchase tax and CGT.  

Of course, a tighter system would allow the government to reduce the tax but ensure it's actually fully enforced to avoid any loss of income.  But this seems a remarkably long time coming, even for Spain.

Two good posts from inspectahomespain, and Mickyfinn.  I also agree with Mickyfinn that a holiday home very rarely makes sense - though that did not stop me purchasing in both France and Florida, just for holiday homes.   For interest - in France, I broke even on the sale, and in Florida back in 2006 - I made enough money to buy my place in Spain.   So I can afford to be a bit more pragmatic.  

Duncan, I stand by what I said, in that I have never sent you an unsolicited message only replying to your abuse.  I leave others to judge who is the biggest dick.  

La Vida Spain are currently offering properties on Las Terrezas for 55000 euros for a two bed.   Kyero has a range at much lower prices though I do understand your reluctance to find them.   Many of us on this forum, including myself, know exactly what property was being sold for because we were already here and in the market.   It is not a foregone conclusion that properties will ever reach those values again.    

I was really pleased to see you move  from your 2025 to 10 -20 year investment plan - that makes much more sense and goodness only knows where we will be in 2035.   I do understand that the people who are buying property today at between 40000 and 60000 generally speaking do not have a lot of money to throw around, and it is important for them to believe that Spanish property will return to its 10% growth years.   But I agree with Micky - if you are only going to use a property for 4 weeks a year, taking in all the running costs, then taxes on sale (maybe even inheritance tax for the kids) you are unlikely to compete with the stockmarket.  Having had holliday homes in France and the US - I was always fortunate enough to be able to holiday elsewhere as well.  If you are only going to a home away from home year after year, I think it will quickly become a bit of a bore - and a drain on finances, as those running costs and flights become more expensive. 

Duncan, thanks for your explanation, although I still don't quite follow. You seem to be saying that you're happy to pay €9,000 for 4 weeks holiday (excluding air fares) in the same place every year for the next 10 years - and I'm very much in Micky's camp when it comes to holiday home ownership anyway. But each to their own. As long as you're happy with it. I just hope your nephews & nieces won't resent you one day for burdening them with the expense and hassle of desposing of it, as the chances of them actually wanting to keep it and holiday in the same place forever are rather slim. My brother in law owns a place slap bang inthe centre of Benidorm. Since his kids were old enough to go on holiday without their parents, they have never returned to Spain. At least you didn't go for a time-share!

Interesting article in the Telegraph that you linked to, presumably to support your optimistic view. Did you read all of it though?

""“In some Spanish cities there’s a lack of infrastructure and no demand for property,” said Tom Walker, a property fund manager......

“Before you buy, ask yourself: can you travel around, is there local healthcare and education, like a university?” He points out that without this supporting infrastructure properties will be almost solely used as holiday homes, which could dampen future capital growth.

“If you buy property in a 'ghost city’ that area won’t have the ingredients for long-term value – only buy purely as a holiday home, and not an investment,” Mr Walker added."

I agree totally with Roy & Acer regarding property purchase/sale taxes (I mentioned this in my post on the 27th). I take onboard what you tell us, Roy, about your area, but as you say yourself, it's very difficult to generalise due to regional vartiations. I'm amazed that new developments are going up at all, never mind selling. Around here, I think there's ONE crane in use! I don't profess to know much about the areas being discussed here, but as Roly says, "Many of us on this forum....know exactly what property was being sold for because we were already here and in the market." I do know that even when prices were at their peak, you could still buy a 2 bedroom home in places like Torrevieja for less than you can buy a similar place where I am right now, at the bottom of the market. I've no idea what Las Terrazas is like, but a 2 bed home for €55K? That wouldn't buy you a run down studio here that you'd be happy to let a stray dog live in. And yet (according to estate agents I talk to) people are still coming in saying they have a budget of 40 or 60 grand. Basically, nothing over 100k is selling - which means in reality virtually nothing is selling.

But that's just here!

n this area we literaly have hundreds of cranes, for example Oasis Beach in Punta Prima, sold out 8 phases in .less than 18 months, closing price or last 2 bed top floor apartments €160k original price at start €107k

Grupo Uno Lo Paga apartments now on phase 5, 15 months wait, now €133k originally launch €107k

But it is all about the right area for example anything close to the new La Zenia Boulivard shopping centre has a premium, the properties opposite have increased in value by 60% but there are none for sale

TM one of the largets in the area have announced 3 new projects, each with more than 300 homes

Funny on places like Terrazes they found it much easier to sell the new apartments at €89k rather then the bank properties, might be partly due to the commissions to the agents

I agree that holiday homes are often not a good investment. The amount I am spending on the house per year right now is quite high and I know the same money could buy me some good holidays elsewhere. However, the house was in pretty poor shape when I bought it which explains the low purchase price. The previous owner hadn't done very much in decades and it showed badly with especially the plumbing and the roof being in a dire state. I am assuming that as I bring the bigger repairs behind me, annual costs will drop. There is a rule of thumb that says you need to spend 2 percent of the value of the building (discounting value of the land) ever year in maintenance just to mainatin the status quo. I'm spending several times that now but assume that in the longer term it will average to this.

However in my case I am also likely to retire into this house and as such what I'm spending is in part a long term investment. I hope to retire free of any debt or mortgage in a house in good condition.

As for the inheritance thing, I agree. I do not intend to leave the house to anyon who doesn't want it. If anybody among my nephews or nieces show especial interest and pleasure towards the house, it's theirs. If none of them like it especially, I'll leave it to a charitable foundation. Nobody should be punished with the chore and trouble of selling something they never wanted to have. I generally believe in giving stuff to those who need and want it. Equality and fairness is only a secondary consideration.

Even during the peak of the crisis, I remember some property sellers were talking up the market. A property agent/seller who says the market is depressed and likely to stay that way is as rare as the Dodo bird.

I think the property market has improved a little since then, so technically they may be correct. However it's all just meaningless waffle. Markets by their very nature, particularly the second home market in Spain go up and down in small measures, stagnate, go sideways and boom for short periods then crash. 

Sellers should debate about fair value because everything has one. Of course if they seek to shift something the price is always fair. That's not what I mean. Fair value means a rational and unbiased estimate of the potential market price of a good, service, or asset. It takes into account such objective factors as: acquisition/production/distribution costs, replacement costs, or costs of close substitutes.

Fair Value for coastal Spanish holiday property should not be compared with residential property in the major towns or cities. Firstly they are not built or designed in the same way; incomes of the population are much lower in coastal regions. Means of employment for over half the year is difficult. There are cost factors such as travel for access, risks leaving it empty or employing a property manager. All these factors produce an actual fair value market estimate.  

Of course the market moves when demand surges but in holiday homes that demand is fickle; so when someone says prices are rising take it with a large pinch of salt. It’s a huge generalization; for example. They might be in Catalonia for a certain type of property but not in Murcia for a concrete box.

If you must buy a holiday home work out its fair value for yourself, given many different factors in the locality. Fix your price you are prepared to pay and can afford given the annual overheads without renting and walk away when it's not accepted.

That way if it goes pear shaped you only have yourself to beat up.