Downturn in price

Iwas just going to say - but its in Wales!!!

We will start to see treu reductions when the sales figures from notaries are produced. Now no black money involved.

I class a buyer as a person qualified financially to look at property. I dont just take any wally that knocks on my door to look at stuff - its why I dont have a shop window and am hard to find. Only serious persons.

Yesterday was a couple who live here, are keeping their current apartment and will rent it out but are looking at a larger property to live in. He has a business back in Scotland and commutes. They are financially sound, have money to put into the deal but are looking for the right proeprty. Yesterdays wasnt it.

Today I showed a couple in their late forties a penthouse in Elviria. They sold their holiday home in may and have the cash in the bank to buy the right property, but are taking their time. They sent an online bid of 260k agains a guide of 355k! Wasnt accepted but the owner did drop to a price that made it interesting enough for the people to make the appointment to view.

Tomorrow I have clients with a bidget of around 200k, they have the costs money but want full valuation. I have 3 units to show them

On the other end of the scale are the owners calling me daily to reduce their prices - many are now for what the mortgage is outstanding - and even then the buyers arent hammering the door down!!!

ie one is a large olive finca near granada - a 5 bed place. Classed as rustic. The groves give a yearly revenue of around 10,000 euros and the owner rents the place out for 1100 per week in the summer. Live in the ukm hubby kust lost job there and their cash is tied up in the place.

I started talking to her in october, the price/valuation for the 42,000 sqmetres was 475k. I now have it at 250k.

And there are loads more - I just cant keep up with it! Even the supposed great developer deals at 58% of bank valautions are being turned down by large investor groups - theyre waiting to get these direct from the banks when they get repod!

Oh fun and games!!

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I have heard that Zapatero is desperate to prevent a big bank or developer from going bust before march 11th. I'm guessing it will happen soon after that.

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I've got a buyer for the shack

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Im with you TJ - I think its being kept quiet by both sides so whoever inherits the sackfull of dung will either complain its the last lot wot dun it, or not be bothered when it all falls apart as they are back in for a few years!

Sad isnt it that life is like this - what happened to all lookng for the good of everyone else and not their own necks!

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Sad isn't it Rixxy.

If you watch the US candidates ( which I wouldn't recomend) they are all busy promising the electorate goodies while the real economy crumbles. I saw an article the other day that was noteing how wealthy some of the M.E countries are and what they are going to do with their Sovereign Wealth Funds. Apparently Abu Dhabi has a wealth fund so large if you divided it amoungst the population there would be 1.5million dollars for each person. Compare this to America and the sum is negative $33k per person.

By the time Bush leaves office the US will have squandered nearly 1trillion dollars on the iraq war - just imagine the good that could have been done with that money.

The US total gold holdings in Fort Knox is around 350Bn US$. Last month they approved a stimulus ( read giveaway ) package that totalled 150bn US$. So for the average American to squander a one off payment of 600$ the US has given away around 1/2 of its total gold holdings, ie the gold that backs the currency.

Of course the governement does not have any money to give away and the US is already nearly 8trillion in debt, so they just print it up in the hope of buying some time and some votes.

Yet not one political candidate has mentioned the complete and utter folly of these moves. Moves that guarantee to increase the debt and do nothing to help anyone as its all just inflation.

The real problem lies with Joe Sixpack of course, who is so dumbed down that he is more interested in Britney Spears or who has won the baseball, than what is going on with the economy. The media spins everything cos they are owned by the elite, meanwhile the average American gets poorer and poorer and the Politicians are free to do pretty much what they like.

Fortunatley the average US citizen does not travel outside the US so that they don't realise how little the dollar is worth and how badly their real standard of living has fallen.

Americans are now reduced to useing their credit cards to buy food and raiding their pensions as they can no longer raid their houses. Credit card companies are busy taking cards away from low credit customers as they fear the next subprime with cards.

The really sad bit is that since the UK and Spain has followed the same model, ie consumer spending based on debt and houseing boom, we are inevitably going to go the same way. Their is no such thing as a consumer based economy its a complete fallacy, you simply cannot consume yourself rich, altho it hasn't stopped many people trying.

This period will go down in history as a time of great madness, similar to the US in 1929.

 

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The Middle East Sovreign wealth Funds are scaring the Americans to death. The US are trying to apply restrictions as to what can be legally purchased with such financial might. They fear the Arabs will take over large corporations in the US, just like US private equity funds have done in the UK. It´s all about Oil & Gas. Every nation in the world has an insatiable growing apetite for it and only a few can supply it. Those few just happen to be the very worst. Arab Countries, Russia, China and a few more who all hate the American way! But they DO like the American dollar. It may soon be a case that the US does allow the Sovreign Wealth Funds to buy large chunks of Wall Street stocks, just to keep cash flowing inwards. But worse, the US will not be able to hang onto it, because they have to give it back to the Arabs to purchase more oil. Who was it that coined the phrase "Lucky Arab" - They were very profound.

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Back a few weeks from Garrucha and Mojacar in Almeria and I have not seen much reduction in prices. Sellers and agents not willing to take reasonable lower offers, despite asking crazy prices for very ordinary properties. Some of the properties have been on sale for over 6 months.
wrixon

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Dont worry Wrixon - sit back for 18 months and watch how it is then.

Mind you - better off buying an oil field by the sound of it!

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I nearly forgot - I have to spare this gem. On friday I was at the hairdressers (yes, I go for a sheep dip and trim every 2-3 months) and 2 chairs to my left was a sharp suited chap having his sharp cut trimmed further.

As usual the hairdresser asks how's work (funnily enough they dont ask where you are going on your hols in Spain - wonder why!) and he says well, bit quiet, reckons it will be a quiet year but take off again big style next year.

I almost managed to stifle a laugh (he was talking about the property market) and pretended to look at my paper in case he realised I was laughing at him.

When he had gone, I was told he was a director at MRI.

Darent tell you what I called him!

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What downturn in price?

According to Euro Anglo Sur prime building land is at  premium and prices are going UP !

They say Barclays and Nat west Spanish mortgage enquiries are up by 40%

Obviously they are pushing off plan properties.

As we are looking to buy later this year we have obviously been watching prices.It would seem to me that whilst the more expensive ones have come down a bit the mid price range has not moved and in fact,due to the exchange rate, are more expensive thanthey were 6 months ago.On the other hand we hear that  properties are taking longer to sell !!

All a bit confusing for this CBwannabe.

 

 

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Acapulco

A serious seller of a re sale who gets a sensible offer of say 10/15 % below the asking price from a serious buyer, like yourself, will more often than not take it 'very seriously'!

Just as a seller would now in UK

Buit we are talking about good re sales not those below a good spec

Even ' new ready now' by which I mean in general the last few remaining in a development are open to offers

I am an agent for Polaris World and most of their prices are fixed but I think I could find you a ' ready now' on a completed development at a ' competitive price' to anything you can find elswhere...and there are the odd 'special First Release offers'

So all is not doom and gloom for getting a good buy in 2008.......in fact 2008 may prove to be the best year to buy in!!!

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Median Price Check: How Much House Does $201,100 Buy?

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USA is a long way to go for a weekend if you are buying a holiday home and flights expensive

If you are buying for part/ time or full time living Spain has everything and you can get back to see the kids or gran kids very quickly and cheaply  

USA is great for some but for us mere mortals, Spain is within reach!........even more so in 2008 

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Ask yourself for little more than 100,000 pounds why you can buy so much home in the US, the richest and most sophisticated country in the world?

The answer is thats what homes are worth, and the reason it seems cheap is because our prices are still in bubble land. Its not that US houseing is cheap, its that ours is stupidly expensive.

Ask yourself again in the long long term (decades) what drives home prices, and the answer is local wages. Wages (thru mortgages)buy houses, its as simple as that.

Then look at the long term growth in wages and you will see its around the official rate of inflation which is typically 3-4% (if you are lucky)

So when you have houseing inflating in price at double digit rates for a decade, while wages lag at 3% you know long term its not sustainable.

Look at house price data in relation to wages and you see that the relationship always snaps back ie if you have 10yrs of outperformance you then get a decade of underperformance.

This has to be the case because otherwise eventually noone would ever be able to afford to buy a house, its just common sense.

The reason the situation in Spain is so dangerous for houseing is that it has been distorted by foreign money and wages during the boom years. However there is now no longer the numbers of foreign buyers required to distort the market. Without this distortion, prices in Spain will have to revert to levels where Spainish young people can afford to buy. With local wages 1300 euros a month its not too hard to see where prices are going.

This is not a great time to buy a house in Spain, its a terrible time as the market is just at the start ot adjusting, sellers holding out in denial, hopeing that things improve next year. Asking prices may not been down much, but as Rixxy says, selling prices are well down. Give it time.

The guy in the hairdressers has no clue about property. Property cycles typically last a decade, so it will likely be 5 yrs before there is any releif. The boom is over and so is the dream, now we are back to reality with a bump. The over supply in Spain will take decades to clear and in the meantime the western world is plunging into recession.

To the starter of this thread - do yourself a big favour and rent in Spain for atleast the next year, unless you can negotiate atleast 50% off.

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Interesting post, TJ. A lot of what you've posted goes way over my (slightly thick) head, but this one, as you said makes very good common sense (wages/house prices relationship etc.)

Not sure I understand though why prices in the US then are not also "stupidly expensive", since wages there are surely better than in Spain? (Maybe not on average? Don't know)

Interestingly, by the way, there was an ad in the Sur in English last week for property investments in Rochester NY. Houses with tennants for as little as $15,000! It got me Googling, and it's true there are some very attractive offers available there. If I could line myself up a nice job with Kodak.....(I did once sell their x-ray film for a living, so maybe.....)

I think I understand what you say about Spain's property market being distorted by foreign money, and about the oversupply of new builds, but does this really mean that buying in Spain is so "dangerous"? I can see it having a seriously detrimental effect on the many new urbanisations that were built and marketed with foreign buyers in mind, but I'm not sure about more mature, traditional (Spanish) areas seeing huge price drops. Spaniards seem to be great property hoarders, and I just can't imagine them ever selling a property for less than they bought it for. They'd rather hang on to it for another 10 years (with a "se vende" sign in the window perhaps!)

You say it's a terrible time to buy in Spain, but there seem to be as many headlines about UK house prices falling. Maybe the US is better value right now, but as Roland said, it's not a practical alternative for most Brits. As for renting, surely if someone is looking for a long term investment, there's never a bad time to buy? If you rent, that money is gone forever. If you buy now, and prices fall, so what? You said yourself property is cyclical, so in time prices will rise again.

And if you can negotiate a 50% discount on a property, it probably isn't worth it in my opinion. If you're looking at Roland's "good resale, good spec" etc., and most importantly, good location, I think you'll be very lucky to get even the 10-15% he suggests.

 

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Roberto

You raise some good points which I will try and answer:

"Not sure I understand though why prices in the US then are not also "stupidly expensive", since wages there are surely better than in Spain? (Maybe not on average? Don't know) "

Prices were stupidly expensive, the market is now undergoing a terrible crash as home prices unwind to levels perhaps 5-10 yrs ago. In some of the hotspots like Florida and Miami prices for 2 bed apartments are down 50% and in California some houses are down 50% and still lacking a buyer.

You are right in saying wages are much higher than here in Spain, average wages are similar if not slightly higher than the UK, and prices are still dropping through the floor. This makes Spain look so so vulnerable.

Economists and history generally agree that houseing cost (mortgage insurance repaymnent of principle etc) should not exceed 30% of household income. If it does then households tend to go into debt or lose their  homes. If you do the figures for Spain then 30% of household income is quite small and the corresponding affordable house price is much much lower. This matches exactly with typical rents in Spain, which are running at around half what it costs just to finance a property, let alone pay back the principle. As a result of the distortions here in Spain many 30 somethings are still living with their parents and in fact Spain has appointed a houseing minister who's main job seems to be to sort this problem out before there is too much unrest.

You mention renting and dead money - let me finaly put this one to bed, cos its a load of rubbish invented by the property industry and sucked in by the naive punters.

Lets use me as an example. As I have said before I am renting a lovely apartement  right on the sea for 750euros a month. To buy it would cost me nearly double this and this would be interest only, ie not capital repayment.

When you buy useing interest only you are effectively "renting from the bank" ie the bank owns the property and after a year all you have done is repaid the interest. So in my example you will have paid twice as much to live in the property as I have, since I am renting from the owner and you are renting from the bank.

In a static or falling market it gets much much worse. All I have paid is the rent to enjoy living in the property. You have paid double the rent I have, you have not repaid any capital and now your house is worth say 15% less - ie lets say 300000*0.15 = 45k loss.

Unfortunatley many people are now discovering the folly of buying in a falling market. They have paid way over the odds to rent a property from the bank and now they are faced with a huge capital loss.

Of course in the longer term it makes sense to buy property BUT AT THE RIGHT PRICE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ie rent until the ratios I have been talking about indicate property is fair value again.

You say if property is cyclical then why worry about the price. Well there are lots of good reason to worry.

Firstly if you overpay for property you will be lumbered with monthly interest payments that are over the odds and will spoil your lifestyle by effectively reduceing your income. Over a period of years this could add up to a lot of money.

Secondly if for 1001 reasons that maybe you don't know about yet you may have to move and sell the property. (incidently why is it that all these poeple that bought property in Spain are now trying to sell?) You may then find having overpaid for your property you cannot find someone to overpay for it and buy it from you. The internet is chock full of Spainish property owners that cannot sell and cannot move and are lumped wit their house. Others are discovering after paying high monthly payments they are now forced to accept a huge capital loss for their home because they simply must sell.

The answer is simple. Property is great to own and if you are wise can be good financially. But buying now is like buying at the end of a 10yr bull run in the stockmarket, you are bound to get clobbered. Brits are obsessed with ownership, partly because most people over the last few decades have done very well buying and mostly we have all been living thru boom times. But that itself should ring alarm bells.

There are many measure that are factual and unemotional that suggest that property in Spain is massively overvalued. Unlike shares property is a slowish market and a lot of the mkt is currently in denial, but fall it will and once it gets really going it will drop like a rock. The US is ahead of us, but where it goes we follow.

Of course all that I am talking about is generalisations and there will be some areas that for special reasons will do better than others, just as there are some properties that will do better than others. Two bed apartments are likely to do the worst, history has shown this and in Spain they are in massive massive oversupply.

 

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Hi Acupulco,

For Euro Anglo sur to say prices are going up is quite unbeleivable,they are not!

Land is not at a premium and the only reason it is expensive is that the boom created a false price scramble and now the builders are suffering with parcelas that they bought at top dollar,paid for the permissions and are now left holding the proverbial Baby!!!!

If any agent told me that prices were rising at this moment anywhere i would question their integrity.

As for mortgage increases,the banks have stricter lending criteria than this time last year and you would struggle to find any bank director to show figures to prove an increase,the only Barclays branch that i know that are doing better than they did last year is Guardamar,thats because they only opened a couple of months ago!!!!!!!!!!

Agents that push this drivvle are painting a picture of illusion and telling you what you want to here,the market has levelled and is adjusting by 5% to !)% at best IN THIS AREA.

I say in this area because i consider myself to be quite knowledgable spending a good deal of my time here through the boom and now a period of uncertainty.

What memebers have to appreciate is that Spain is a huge country and what is happening in Marbella is not nescesarily affecting us on the Costa Blanca on such a huge scale.

Where people would have paid 300,000-4000,000 + for an apartment because Rod stewart moored his yacht within walking distance once last summer will not affect the everyday prices on the CB,you can still get a decent apartment for 120,000€ here and it is because the hype did not run away with prices it is easier to stabilise and there is less margin for a huge fall. 

Be very careful of what you are lead to beleive from some of the larger guys that do not really care what they tell you,if someone told me the prices were on the rise here i would not stop laughing for months...........

 

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On the other hand, if you try and buy a new house now on the CB, the prices are more expensive than 2 years ago.  Look at any of the developers websites and you will see prices are still going up.  For example, we have bought ours off plan and will soon be ready.  Cost 18 months ago was 204K (euros) advertised price is now 228k (euros).  Staggeringly, one across the road was for sale 280K which we thought too expensive, now up for sale at 338K.  Resales, however, are going for less than the buying price of 3 years ago.  One in Quesada bought new at 185K in 2005 now up for sale at 160K. If that price includes the agents commission, the seller will be seriously out of pocket.

And I 've said it before, the reason property in the US is so attractive is because of the rate to the pound so it looks good to us.  If you bought a house for a quarter of a million dollars 5 years ago, it would have cost you around £185,000 which was quite expensive.  The same house today, at the same price, will cost you around £126,000 so it looks like the market is at rock bottom but the price is still the same in dollars.  Same as pay in the States.  The average wage in the US in 2005 (according to the US Social Security website) was $36,448 which was £26,200.  Earning the same pay today and you would only get £18,400 a year.  Back in 70s, I was getting $35K a year but that was only about £14,000 a year.  So, even if you worked in the States and had no pay rises since the 70s, your pay would fluctuate from 14K to 26K if you measured it in pounds.  This is another reason property is starting to look expensive in Spain.  For example, my new place would have been £127,000 if you use the exchange rate of 5 years ago, £140,000 at the rate when I bought it 18 months ago and £155,000 if you bought it now even though the price in euros doesn't change.

By the way, average non skilled pay in the USA is $7.93 and skilled pay average is $16.34.  Thats around £4 an hour non-skilled and £8.25 skilled.  Again, poor rates due to the exchange rates at the moment. (source: US Today and US Social Security websites - non skilled worker relates to check out staff, service staff etc skilled refers to motor mechanics, draftsmen (sic) etc)

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TJ, it's clear to me from your posts that you know your stuff and I bow to your undoubtedly superior understanding of this subject. But my pea-size brain is still struggling with a couple of points

OK, so some US property prices have crashed by as much as 50%, so this is why we should expect similar falls in Spain. But the article you posted yesterday stated that the average US home price fell by just 4.6% over the last 12 months. A year ago in Torremolinos you couldn't buy anything for under €70k, but this week, I saw an 18m2 (!) studio advertised in a cafe window for €35k. There's your 50% drop, QED. But this one case is no more indicative of the whole of Spain than a 2 bed condo with views of Gloria Estefan's back yard in Miami is representative of the whole of the USA. As Georgia says, Spain is a big country, and surely any generalisations can be dangerous? (I acknowledge that you acknowledge that you are "talking generalisations"!)

The renting thing, I follow your point, but of course this only applies to those who would need to finance their purchase. If you are in a position to buy outright, would I be right in assuming that all this reasoning is obsolete? I have no evidence of this, but I suspect that there is a higher percentage of cash buyers in the Spanish property market than many others. Would this not skew the figures a bit?

I have no doubt that most young Spaniards struggle to pay a mortgage on their meagre salaries, and I can understand perfectly what you say about this eventually having a major effect on the market. Makes perfect sense and is all very logical - I'm just not convinced that the property market is as logical. And since most mortgages are taken out over 25 or even 30 years, you'd have to "do the math" to convince me that over such a period, it's not better to buy.

Another thing, you mention the 1001 reasons that you maybe don't know about yet, why you may need to sell. Of course there's always the possibility that circumstances will mean you have to get out of an investment at the wrong time, but I presume this is the same whether you've invested in property or gold bullion. And if you need to sell your property because you unexpectedly have to relocate or move to larger premises, for example, then if the property you are selling has dropped in value, doesn't it follow that the property you are buying probably also has? (unless of course you are moving between two relatively unconnected markets) In which case, will you have lost out, in real terms?

Another thing (!) you say "there are many measure that are factual and unemotional that suggest that property in Spain is massively overvalued", and compare property and shares. Isn't it possible that, unlike buying shares, many property purchases are emotional? If you are lucky enough to find your dream home, should you really wait a year just to see what the market does? Next year a similar property may be available for less, but will you be as happy with it? I can't imagine anybody feeling gutted at missing out on a really nice bunch of paper shares and having to settle for a different bunch of another company's shares. But property is different.

Finally, a curious little example for you to ponder. I'm not suggesting this is typical at all, in fact it's quite the contrary, but it does illustrate the point that generalisations or random stats taken out of context can be misleading. A year ago I bought a property, what Roland I think would term "good resale, good spec", where most agents would describe as "sought after"! In short, an older property in a very popular location (La Carihuela, for those who are interested.) Today I saw an identical property for sale in the same complex, (albeit on a lower floor than mine so not with quite as spectacular views!) so I called the agent to enquire - naturally. The asking  price is around 40% more than I paid. I asked if this was negotiable, The agent told me frankly that the seller has an outstanding mortgage on the property - for around 30% more than I paid for mine. Perhaps I got a cracking bargian. Perhaps the vendor of this other one will end up as yet another sorry statistic, and if I wait a year I'll be able to buy it for 50% less from the bank. Who knows?

I await with interest your reply!

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Roberto

Once again you raise some good points and I think you are correct on some of your assumptions. I must restate that I myself have done very well from property investing in the last decade and that generally I am an optomist by nature. The views I hold now are simply because I have the experience to see what is coming and even if I wanted to I can't change the facts. I'm sure that sometime in the future i will be bullish on property again, but not now and certainly not now in Spain. I say it as I see it and if that upsets some people i suggest they stop reading about it.

The US market is so diverse that its impossible or misleading to generalise. However its generally recognised if you listen to the news that the market is in free fall with no bottom in sight. Millions of people have either defaulted already or have missed payments on their mortgages and this is adding to supply in a market that is saturated. Losses have been so bad for banks that buyers now need to put down as standard a 25% deposit and have excelent credit rating. You can imagine what this is doing to demand. Suddenly a whole tranche of buyers is completely excluded from the market.

Generally speaking markets that experienced the most exuberance on the way up are experiencing the highest falls. California seems to one of the hardest hit areas as well as Florida and Miami. These were all former hotspots that experienced flipping and huge leverage from investors. I think form memory there is an area around NY where house prices are still riseing.

However the US is experiencing a terrible houseing crisis and its knock on effects are disasterous, Homeowners no longer able to  tap their houses for debt are reigning in consumption and the economy is slowing dramatically. So dramatically that the FED have had to make the largest interest rate cuts in recent history, and a stimulus package has been put into operation.

The reason that people look to the US as a bellweather is that history has shown that we in europe are highly dependent. US consumption makes up a staggering 25-30% of worldwide GDP, so its not possible for Europe to operate in isolation or to avoid the effects of a US slowdown.

Re renting and putting down cash, if you pay with cash you still need to time your purchase correctly, otherwise you simply use up more of your cash than you need to if you overpay, which will restrict your spending later. Also i think that those that operate with cash are such a small percentage as to be a drop in the ocean as far as stats go, but I accept your point.

Over a 25 year period I would always want to buy, in this time period I'm sure you could find a period when property was good value, since cycles are usually a decade long, so 5yrs say from end of boom to bottom of bust.

When I said unemotional I meant in regard to property valuation. I hear so many people say property is good value or property is cheap, but usually this is a result of a comparison which can be very misleading. For instance if you overpaid as many have done for a 2 bed apartment at say 350k and now you are offering it at a reduced bargain of 300k, is this really a bargain. Sure it has dropped 50k which sounds a lot, but if it was 150k overvalued in the first place its hardly a bargain at 300k.

After many many years of booming property its hard to get a handle on value, so the time honoured measures of rental yield and price to wages is a good unemotional guide. Talk to a professional and they will always use these figures only.

Of course buying a home is always an emotional decision, but it needs to be tempered with a certain amount of logic. I agree if the perfect home turns up at the wrong time then this can be a difficult decision. However if there was only one home that would ever do for us, like if there was only one perfect partner in life - we would never find them in all the millions - so this cnnot be the case really.

If people bought on fixed rate mortgages i would be more comfortable, because then you would know that you could allways affrord your home. Unfortunately home prices are usually the most expensive when rates are the lowest, which leaves a very dangerous situatiuon when rate inevitably rise.

Of course property is very different to shares, but they are the same in that if you buy shares after a long bull run then you are likely to lose money.

I am glad that you appear to have done well on your purchase and it probably goes to prove that if you do your homework and buy well ( location, views, limited supply, good price etc) then you can probably do well in most markets. However I feel that the situation faceing Spain over the next couple of years is very dire and the recession brewing in Europe is likely to be very painful and much worse than most people predict. The last decade has seen the largest and longest credit and debt binge the world has ever experienced and history shows that the longer they last the more damaging they end, and that they always always end badly.

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