Cranes back in the Skyline...I was amazed

Graeme - pedantic doesn't suit you... of course it's not JUST the Brits - but I feel it as I am a Brit, but that doesn't permit me to talk for anyone else now does it..?

I am not diminishing anything that other partner Europeans or anyone esle for that matter pouts into the Spanish economy - just ticks me it's having to be done - (which it will).

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 @honeywater "Experience shows that the bottom of any market is impossible to call"

This is  true in a liquid market where price discovery is immediate, such as a large stock exchange,  commodities exchange or foreign exchange market....where countless billions of dollars are available at a mouse click. (the foreign exchange market in 2010 turned over $4 trillion a day, so good luck to anyone trying to out-think a market that size)

But the Spanish property market is illiquid, sluggish, moribund.  It's not as if you are going to go away for a long weekend and return on the Tuesday, and find Spanish house prices have risen noticeably, as can easily happen with the markets mentioned above.

If I wanted to buy I would earmark a selection of houses, or communities....watch the selling prices...and establish beyond all doubt that prices were trending higher over a period of at least a year -  that the number of sales was greatly increasing, and most importantly establishing that inventory of unsold properties was down to a few months at most. At present the inventory must be infinite, or decades at least. 

Far better to pay 10% extra because you were cautious and bought  late than jump in with both feet in the hope of a bargain and find out that you were.....mistaken. Meanwhile, rent and cash in on someone else's problem.

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look it is very simple 12 Months ago there was not a crane to be seen, this Week I counted 9 all working and buzzing, I went into see one of the new blocks they were building and they were all sold out the lady said, 3 bed 2 bath state of the art apartmnet €160,000, so it's true the place is really taking off, and Spain is back with a bang.........

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 There are still thousands of unsold properties from the boom years, these are now starting to look very tired and dirty. They are going to be blots on many older developements as new buyers will want to buy on shiny new developements. On mine we have 7 properties unsold since 2002. When i see cranes i'm horrified. The last thing (Orihuela costa) my area needs is more houses. Now with the opening of the Boulavard, many business's are going to the wall or closing down. The headlines read 1000's of new jobs created, but this is isolation as thousands of jobs are going as all these smaller enterprizes are closing down, leaving more and more smaller commercial premises empty, making these area's look awful. The Spainish just don't get it and frankly i don't think they ever will. There will only be so many Russians that can buy, just as there were only so many Brits, Germans, Scandinavians etc. As air travel gets more expensive, will the Russians be able to travel so often, it's a long flight from Russia. Flights from the Uk are on the rise, this means whereas someone might have gone out 3 or 4 times a year, now it will be 2 or 3 or less, having a knock on effect on bars, restaurants and shops. When I go out to Spain, the last thing I want to do is go to a shopping mall, queing on the N332 for hours to get there.

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Guy's comments below make total sense ie no one ever picks the bottom & always better to buy into an uptrend !! Also share the view that whilst recovery is certainly not on the horizon - any current flickers of activity can only be positive !!

Harry

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 I was in Orihuela Costa last week and was surprised to see that the part finished development, which has stood for years following the demise of the Developer Technoligia Urbanistica, across the road from the new la Zenia Boulevard was actually being demolished.

There was a team of men working on it wioth the help of a Bulldozer.

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 Brickie

 I was in Orihuela Costa last week and was surprised to see that the part finished development, which has stood for years following the demise of the Developer Technoligia Urbanistica, across the road from the new la Zenia Boulevard was actually being demolished.

There was a team of men working on it wioth the help of a Bulldozer.

And about time.  TU started building these properties with money they "stole" from people buying elsewhere.  They mortgaged the land people had bought houses on and used that money to buy this land.  Atlas were even charging people for these properties saying that they had been built when they patently weren't.  

However, I believe this land is going to have phase 2 of Zenia Boulevard built on it.  Supposedly (but never listen to rumours) with a cinema and bowling alley complex.  

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GuyT, I've experienced other markets, such as Panama. I put down deposits for oceanfront apartments 6 and 7 years ago. The Panamanian economy has grown at an average of 8.5% (forecast 10.6% this year) since. Many pundits "in the know" predicted a significant deep in the market over this period. Admittedly, the market went sideways from 2008 to 2010, but some of the so called "gurus" have come out to admit that they got it wrong, which they were only able to realise with the benefit of hindsight. Prices are holding up and rental demand is very strong.

I received the first of the two apartments 7 months ago and two months later rented it out for $1800 per monts (the total purchase cost was $247000). The second one is due to be delivered in 18 months' time. It is a long timesince I paid the deposits, but I'm talking about a 48 and 80-sotry skyscrapers (if you can be bothered about any more details, please check allurepanama.com and yoo panama).

I wouldn't be surprised if something similar happened in some parts of Spain, at least. Suddenly people may realise that the most sought after areas have got too expensive. "When did this happen?" - some may wonder.

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Hi Honeywater – it’s good to see that you got it right and your investment has paid off in Panama -the only difference here is we are dealing with Spain. If an investor has got a bank-load that he wants to invest, the first thing is a period of  ‘due diligence’ and the following matters would become evident:

Off-Plan Schemes………………….                   Huge Investors losses

Dodgy Developers…………………                   Millions of Homes Never Completed.

Iffy Agents…………………………..                       Disappearing back to Blighty with your money.

Dishonest Banks……………….                       Failing to meet their obligations for compensation.

Corrupt Politicians…………….                       Trousering  ‘favour’ money because they can.

Plunging Property prices……….                   It’s unlikely that you will make money for many years to come.

Deceitful Councils………………                      Issuing Illegal permits for money.

Unpredictable Juntas…………                      May issue fines/demolition against (legal) licenses.

Unreliable Judiciary…………….                     Granting Demolition orders against totally honest people.

Unclear regulations…………….                     What appears to be legal may not be.

3^rd World Construction Methods…….        Poor quality materials with very low build quality.

Now Banco Malo……………………..                                Ready to dump millions of sub-standard properties in unwanted areas on the market at massive ‘discounts’.  Surely there can’t be any positive effect on the general property market that would persuade investors to part with their hard-earned.

 

If you thought that even one of the above issues would affect your investment and put your money at risk – no matter how small that exposure  may be,  be honest now, would you stick a quarter of  a million quid into a couple of off-plan apartments?

Woodbug.

 

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Can I ask a really daft question here.

OB123 - You say that the lady told you they were all sold. Are they really? We signed up for an off-plan property 8 years ago and the developers were insistent that all were sold. We knew they weren't of course. It's a ploy to make you want to buy - if you are daft enough to believe the sales pitch as miraculously some will come back on the market.

By the time we moved in in 2007 about 25% were still in the developers name and undold.

Upturn? Forget it. Another apartment block has recently been completed in a small Spanish town near us and it is totally empty. Not a single person has moved in. Why have they built it???

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 Yes they are all sold,i am an agent that sells them and they have no reason the tell me this if they are not.....it would defeat the object.

I mentioned the rate the new builds are selling a few weeks back but the usual suspects shot me down.....now Harry is cooing and nodding when it is on here again from someone else.

To be honest i am suprised at the rate they are going all over the area!!

 

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 I certainly did not shoot you down, nor can I remember anyone else doing so.   I simply expressed the opinion that a handful of sales does not mean a recovery.  I have seen nothing this week to suggest this is incorrect.

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 I didn't mention you Roly did i?

I notice you are in Almeria,i doubt you will see much movement down there,it was the quietest and cheapest area in the boom so i think it will be one of the last to recover,maybe thats why you are not noticing it??

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 I am praying it does not start again.   We have been saved from the overdevelopment of elsewhere - but I spend quite a bit of time around Murcia, and in Madrid - and I have not, in truth, noticed any movement there either.   In fact, most of the mailings I continue to get are about continuing falling prices around Murcia.  Going back to my early post on this topic, I stand by it - the cranes never went away.   Developers who went under have had whole communities finished off (badly largely) by the banks who were stuck with them - in Almeria certainly.  Where developments are sold out - it is because they have been built to order.   And again, no need to be so touchey - I simply said I could not really remember you being shot down.   There is a difference between being shot down and having people disagree with you - in  a discussion forum.

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Pommers.... I went around to some of the apartments that were in one of the new buildings near us, and they were people after moving in I spoke to them and they said that  what the bought was a real bargain, so the Lady was telling the truth I think, now is the time to buy in spain a lot of guys with  big fat cheque books are taking advantage of distressed sales buying up all these bargains and they will make a fortune in a few Years,.....

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Woodbug, it would be foolish to argue with your analyses of the state of the Spanish housing market. What that tells me, though, is that things can only get better (forgive the cliche), as even Armageddon seems priced in. Anyone considering investing in property in Spain faces a very simple choice: Doing their due diligence ( this should include wise area selection, right type of property and so on), or doing nothing because they've managed to convince themselves that the world is about to go off a cliff edge- again!!). I'm in the former camp and will not hesitate to put my money where my mouth is once I've raised the funds for a decent deposit.

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In addition to recent Honeywater post.

 

2 crucial things when "investing or buying",

 

use an established estate agent and a independent lawyer

 

 

If any buyer remembers that then they should be okay.

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Well said Honeywater. I've been beginning to wonder if this forum is entirely populated by INVESTORS rather than people wanting to LIVE in their Spanish home! Someone suggested choosing your area then waiting a YEAR to ensure the market is definitely rising. My own perception is different. The market is currently acceptably low, which meant that when l found the perfect home, l bought it. Maybe in a years's time it might have been €5000 cheaper - who knows? Maybe in a year it might have been €5000 more - who knows? Maybe in a year it might not have been available - who knows? The only undisputable fact is that l bought at a price acceptable both to me and to the vendor, and in a year's time ....... I will have lived in it for a year!

The time to buy is the day that you walk into the house that feels like your future home.

Nothing l write is of any relevance to investors. They do things differently.

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Absolutely Tamara and Honeywater.  I, on the other hand, would also see myself as an investor, but not one that pussyfoots around.  I've said before that sitting around, postponing your 'dream' because you're terrified of not getting the best possible deal is what losers in this world in do.  I've seen people um and ah for a year to make absolutely sure, in their own minds, that they are doing the right thing and then they regret their decision! 

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Tammaressex....totally agree

if it feels right dont delay

its good to listen to others but you should know when you see a good thing.

 

I had clients the other day...they had seen something with the bank(needs tlc) but i could not match this price with similar property...and told them....."go and buy it , if you dont someone else will".....and they made offer and it was accepted...They will look back in years to come knowing financially its a decision they will never regret...

 

 

 

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