Are property prices really on the up in Spain?

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11 Sep 2015 11:13 by mac75 Star rating in Valencia. 407 posts Send private message

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An article in El Pais the other day stated that Spanish house prices surged 4.2% in the second quarter of the year compared with the previous three-month period, according to figures released by the National Statistics Institute (INE).

Year-on-year, the recent numbers represent a 4% rise in real estate prices. This is the biggest increase since 2007, right before the beginning of the global economic crisis and the subsequent property crash in Spain.

This significant increase in price tags, comparable only to the days of the real estate bubble, affects both new and existing homes and points to a nationwide housing recovery on the back of improved forecasts for the Spanish economy as a whole.

The article explains that one of the keys to this expansion was the surge in existing house prices, which rose 4.6% in the second quarter of 2015. New homes appreciated 1.5% from the first quarter.

The property crash sent prices tumbling more than 36%. There was a modest uptick last year, but it varied greatly by region. This time, every Spanish region has recorded price hikes, a fact that is accelerating the pace of expansion.

All of Spain’s regions registered quarterly rises, according to the INE data. The biggest year-on-year price hikes are taking place in areas where the real estate sector is detecting the greatest demand and concentrating its housing starts: the Balearic Islands (7.3%), Catalonia (5.5%), Madrid (6.4%) and Cantabria (5.1%). Prices appreciated the least in Asturias, Extremadura and Galicia, with rises of under one percent.

 

Is this just more non-significant data or are people really noticing that prices are on the up?



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11 Sep 2015 11:27 by baz1946 Star rating. 2179 posts Send private message

Amazing how these figures are worked out, presumably the 1st quarter was the winter months so would house prices stayed as they were, the 2nd quarter was getting to be spring so maybe buyers were on the look out and if ten houses..(Of course more across Spain).. Were sold perhaps this reflects a rise in some eyes.

And to remember this news is newspapers, just like in the UK papers only last week..."House prices are dropping"...The Daily Mail today..."House prices jumped £6,000 a month"...Wont even go to the percentages of it all.





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11 Sep 2015 11:45 by johnzx Star rating in Spain. 5241 posts Send private message

Mac   The article explains that one of the keys to this expansion was the surge in existing house prices, which rose 4.6% in the second quarter of 2015. New homes appreciated 1.5% from the first quarter.

Firstly one needs to know on what criteria the info is based.  For example 4.6% up, but on what, maybe the lowest ever sales figues, so that really means nothing.   

Like 50% increase. If last year 10 properties were sold (in Spain) then that means 15 were sold this year, hardly something to be excited about.

The figures I would like to see is that more properties have been sold this year than any year  since 2007 and that selling prices compared with 2007 are    x%   higher this year.

Alas I suspect I may not live long enough to see that info.

 


This message was last edited by johnzx on 11/09/2015.



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11 Sep 2015 12:44 by fonziedas Star rating. 55 posts Send private message

something is moving in Spain, and houseprices are going up as are sales, but it's moving very slowly, 

http://murciatoday.com/positive-news-for-the-murcia-property-market-during-second-quarter_27117-a.html





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11 Sep 2015 13:05 by windtalker Star rating. 1670 posts Send private message

Don't think property Price's are rising ,but they have bottomed out with plenty of sold signs up on Camposol that alone will lead to property Price's rising so if you are one of the  JUST THINKING brigade that frequently gets on hear you better act quickly before you miss the boat.

 


This message was last edited by windtalker on 11/09/2015.



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11 Sep 2015 22:55 by Mrsubby Star rating. 75 posts Send private message

I personally think some of these price rises account for new builds.

same old story, phase two always a little more expensive than phase one.

Also the pound against the euro reads better than it has for a while so has brought more interest in purchases, even though it's dropped from its peak a little.

Still bargains out there, but are these in desirable locations? Probably not,  Or are people buying because of the depressed prices that is also due to poor location.

 

 





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11 Sep 2015 22:55 by DuncanMcG Star rating in Manchester, UK. 377 posts Send private message

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If you look at the long term Spanish House Price Index, prices have just about dropped back to the long term trend.


source: tradingeconomics.com

All the indicators are that property sales in most areas are increasing and prices have just about bottomed.

My guess is that we will have a couple more flat years before prices start to rise again and it will be 10-15 years before we see prices back to the same level they were at the peak of the bubble in 2007/8.


This message was last edited by DuncanMcG on 11/09/2015.

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12 Sep 2015 09:57 by GuyT Star rating. 487 posts Send private message

There are so many differences to pre-2007. Property prices in those days were fueled by the huge amount of credit in the world, which is now gone and will never come back. And in Spain we now have what looks like will be a generation of unemployed youth who will never be able to buy property in the way that their parents did. In the UK property prices are held up by low interest debt, which is a govt tool to make the population feel good. I don't see many Brits risking the inevitable rise in interest rates and buying abroad like the old days. We have all undergone a "waking up to reality" moment. Like in the USA in 1929 when every cab driver and house maid were playing the stock exchange - on borrowed money. lol.





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12 Sep 2015 13:53 by Hephaestus Star rating in The Peak District Na.... 1237 posts Send private message

If firms such as Rightmove showed a property's previous selling prices, as they do in the UK, then we would all know the answer.

 


This message was last edited by Hephaestus on 12/09/2015.

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12 Sep 2015 14:07 by baz1946 Star rating. 2179 posts Send private message

If firms such as Rightmove showed a property's previous selling prices, as they do in the UK, then we would all know the answer.

Your solicitor, if any good will tell you what the seller paid for the house.





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12 Sep 2015 14:58 by Woodbug Star rating. 371 posts Send private message

According to various experts, house prices have been increasing for the last two years – however these experts usually have a vested or fiscal interest in property and will always be able to spout a few percentages to us in defence of their prognosis  – but rarely are figures mentioned.

At the other end of the scale the Guardian puts the number of empty properties in Spain at 3.4 million with more than 2,900 complete abandoned villages for sale, along with repossessions still adding to the numbers.

Until employment in Spain and the banking system allow the indigenous population to afford a home, figures are not going anywhere. The property market is driven by the law of supply and demand and at the moment there is no demand – don’t believe for one minute that the Brits have saved the day by buying is Spain. We are told that across the board, Town Halls have  recorded a 23% (sorry another percentage) drop in ex-pat registrations since 2013 and there are an estimated 100,000 more who want to get back to UK but are unable to sell their homes. Let the agents talk the job up and let the government and banks massage figures - at the end of the day its still a buyers market and will remain so for quite some time.





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12 Sep 2015 16:04 by johnzx Star rating in Spain. 5241 posts Send private message

Your solicitor, if any good will tell you what the seller paid for the house.

Or you could just look at the copy of the Escritura which the person you are buying from must produce.  

I believe it will also be shown on the Nota Simple, which is the property registry office record,  which you probably should have obtained before to agreed to buy. If you buy, the notary will get a an up-to-date copy no more than 24 hours before you sign,  to ensure it is safe for you to buy. and that there are no debts outstanding against the property..

Of course if it was some time ago that the person you are buying from bought, the declared figure may be,  possibly will be, very different from what was actually paid.





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12 Sep 2015 16:24 by Hephaestus Star rating in The Peak District Na.... 1237 posts Send private message

If someone in the UK is looking at property in a particular area all they have to do is to log into Rightmove's site to find out the sales patterns over the last 10/15 years. This of course does not take into account the costs involved in respect of renovated property, but does give a prospective buyer some idea of which direction the the area is heading.  



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12 Sep 2015 16:33 by baz1946 Star rating. 2179 posts Send private message

f someone in the UK is looking at property in a particular area all they have to do is to log into Rightmove's site to find out the sales patterns over the last 10/15 years. This of course does not take into account the costs involved in respect of renovated property, but does give a prospective buyer some idea of which direction the the area is heading.  

For Spain or the UK?





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12 Sep 2015 16:41 by Hephaestus Star rating in The Peak District Na.... 1237 posts Send private message

My original post regarding Rightmove's differing policy between Spain and UK property explains all. I wouldn't expect a Spanish agency to mirror the policies of UK agents, however I can't understand why Rightmove have differing policies for different countries.



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12 Sep 2015 16:55 by baz1946 Star rating. 2179 posts Send private message

f someone in the UK is looking at property in a particular area all they have to do is to log into Rightmove's site to find out the sales patterns over the last 10/15 years. This of course does not take into account the costs involved in respect of renovated property, but does give a prospective buyer some idea of which direction the the area is heading. 

Strange I cant seem to find the section on Rightmove that gives out the sales patterns for the last 10/15 years in Spain, must be looking in the wrong place.





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12 Sep 2015 17:29 by GuyT Star rating. 487 posts Send private message

@Hephaestus. I doubt whether the Spanish would be capable of putting together a timely database such as could be used by Rightmove's software. For example, on the UK website I just put in a postal code of a rural area I'm familiar with. Already it shows the land registry prices for July 2015. (9 sales in an area of under a hundred households. Expand the search to a mile radius and there are 704 properties recently sold.)

Compare this with my wife and I trying to get an update from the cadastra showing a piece of land we bought three years ago, so that we can include this new piece of land in a planning application.  We are told it might take years. And when we ask various intelligent Spanish friends how to check up on anything relating to property, planning permission, rights of way, etc....they just shrug and suggest one visits the junta 200 km away, where the chap one needs to speak to is always on holiday.

Useless people when it comes to law, administration, etc but very friendly & pleasant. With the most wonderful food, architecture, art, joie de vivre, etc. 





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12 Sep 2015 17:31 by ads Star rating. 4012 posts Send private message

An interesting recent article from Spanish Property insight re the glut of unsold properties in differing regions of Spain implies that foreign buyers are now looking for very different criteria in terms of their choice of property since the boom days, which begs the question where does this leave the Spanish real estate industry if these properties are few and far between but monies to fund developers is hard to come by? 

Has this however resulted in more affordable homes for the Spanish? In other words has the market shifted towards more lower priced domestic sales? Will this glut be gradually eroded by domestic uptake or are the Spanish also turning their backs on these unsold properties for whatever reason?





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12 Sep 2015 17:36 by Hephaestus Star rating in The Peak District Na.... 1237 posts Send private message

Thanks GuyT, I'm sure that you are correct, Spain appear to be happy remaining in the 20th century, or is it the 19th? laugh 



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12 Sep 2015 21:28 by midasgold Star rating in Mijas.. 91 posts Send private message

We just had the first house sale on our urb since 2007.

The 2007 sale made 330,000 euros.

Identical villa sold to-day 2015 made 140,000.

Things must be booming in the estate agents mind !



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