BREXIT

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11 Jun 2016 7:53 PM by ads Star rating. 4124 posts Send private message

Not willing to read and analyse the contents other than one sentence then???? Not exactly an intellectual approach to critique is it, especially considering both camps have been using the language of "fear".

http://static1.squarespace.com/static/570a10a460b5e93378a26ac5/t/5722f8f6a3360ce7508c2acd/1461909779956/Economists+for+Brexit+-+The+Economy+after+Brexit.pdf


This message was last edited by ads on 11/06/2016.



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11 Jun 2016 7:40 PM by perrypower1 Star rating in Derbyshire/Fuerteven.... 647 posts Send private message

perrypower1´s avatar

Open minded my ar@@.  When a group starts off by saying all you have heard so far is from Project Fear I know that there views are slanted and not worth reading.  If you have some non biased, non political economists then by all means bring them forward, but please no more of Farage's cronies.





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11 Jun 2016 6:28 PM by ads Star rating. 4124 posts Send private message

For those wanting more information and willing to retain an open mind ( whether or not you agree with this) here's  more details from several economists who have provided an analysis on post Brexit.

http://www.economistsforbrexit.co.uk

It includes a PDF file you can download or view online.





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11 Jun 2016 4:52 PM by Mickyfinn Star rating in Spain and France. 1833 posts Send private message

The political right and a vision of Britain.

If Cameron loses IDS and Johnson together with their Tory chums on the hard right of politics will take over the parliamentary party.

This is something that they seek to come to pass. Many also seek to remove the social welfare model altogether.

Brexit will have many unseen consequences. That is because the support for Brexit principally comes from the right of UK politics. Not the centre ground where most people inhabit. They are being led astray and will regret it.

 

The Tory leader says it is 'futile' to continue to pour billions of pounds into a system that is crying out for reform.

In a landmark document setting out an alternative vision for the health service, Mr Duncan Smith says Labour's tax rises have made little difference.

'The problems of the NHS are not just a matter of money, it is the system that is failing,' he says. 'Despite increasing taxes by £100billion since they came to office, they have failed to deliver any significant improvement.'

The Tory report says that overall UK spending on health still lags behind Europe.

Although spending in Northern Ireland and Wales is 9.2 per cent and 9.1 per cent of gross domestic product, putting them almost on a par with France, the UK as a whole reaches only 6.8 per cent.

But waiting lists are even worse in Northern Ireland and Wales than they are in England, says the report, which shows that performance depends not on money but on how systems work.

'We could spend as much as France or the Netherlands and still not enjoy the quality of care they provide, because this Government refuses to change the way the NHS is run,' Mr Duncan Smith says.

'Britain is stuck with a 1940s solution to 21st century problems.'

Labour's targets of matching European spending were doomed to failure if they were not accompanied by reform of the system, argues Mr Duncan Smith.

He adds: 'We must have a system based on need, not on the ability to pay. But that need should be defined by patients working with doctors, not by politicians.

'Above all, we owe it to the most vulnerable - the elderly, the sick and the poor - to renew the promise of the NHS and to make it fit for the century we live in.'

Labour claims that the Tories are planning a two-tier health service, based on ability to pay.

But this is dismissed in the report, called Alternative Prescriptions, which hints at a possible switch to a social insurance system similar to those used in France, Belgium and Germany.

It says these are fairer than Britain's fully tax-funded system, which forces people stuck on waiting lists to pay extra to go private.

Social insurance involves contributions from employers and workers funding health insurance. It is usually compulsory, and paid at a flat rate regardless of an individual's health.

The report says a move towards this would not necessarily create a two-tier system.

Mr Duncan Smith insists that he believes in a system that is 'available to all on the basis of need'. He says: 'Our goal is to make the NHS the best health service in the world.'

But the Conservative vision marks a move away from the post-war consensus on health. It clears the way for a radical Tory system involving a mixture of state funding, social and private insurance and voluntary provision.

The report says the nearest equivalents to Britain's NHS were the systems in the former communist countries of Eastern Europe.

Like us, their health services were funded 100 per cent by tax. But now even Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have moved successfully to mixed health care economies.

In preparing the report, shadow health secretary Dr Liam Fox travelled the world talking to doctors, nurses and hospital managers.

It says that survival rates in Britain for certain illnesses are among the worst in the civilised world. For ovarian cancer, for example, survival rates across Europe are 20 per cent better than in Britain and 50 per cent better in America.

For prostate cancer, the rate is 33 per cent better in Europe and over 100 per cent better in America.

People in the UK are also among the least happy with their health system. More than 40 per cent are 'very or fairly dissatisfied'.

In Austria, Belgium, Denmark and Finland, by contrast, less than ten per cent of people are dissatisfied.

Mr Duncan Smith says: 'In Germany, for example, the idea of national waiting lists is unheard of.

'In Denmark, people have a legal right to treatment within four weeks from their first GP appointment.

'Compare this with a 15-month "target" in Britain, counted from the time patients finally manage to see a consultant.'

Shadow chancellor Michael Howard says the Tories were learning from other countries but had not yet decided on whether to back a social insurance-based system.



 



_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn Time is the fire in which we burn. Delmore Schwartz.



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11 Jun 2016 2:20 PM by Jontym Star rating. 17 posts Send private message

I'm a remain voter, I believe for me the advantages to stay and alter the EU within, is a better option, to vote out and then solve all our problems by closing the boarders, though this will not include Ireland's open boarder, because of the agreement there, then ban fishing by other countries within our waters, oh then try and sell 80% of what we then catch to  the EU countries, stop farming Inports to protect our meat, grain and milk growers as they loose £6b in handouts, the U.K. Had fought against these for years so they would not replace them, though I believe that that is a fight we should have inside the EU.

the first £30b saved would have to be spent on one nuclear power plant in Hinckley, as I don't think the French government will provide EDF the money for there bit, but I think Japan and mainly China would help with that! Maybe not both but we could ask China to buy up our aging power stations, 

oh by then Scotland will be independent and we will have to spend billions securing that boarder, oh a few more ships to patrol our seas, for another! COD war!

But after all that we could negotiate access to the economic union, as a partner, who hates all the others, and get a tariff free access, without open boarders just like ? No other country has yet done.

im sure we will be able to sort tourism out and emergration as that is benifit to some EU countries so they will do individual deals, within there membership regulations, and that would help millions of pounds to be earned in the UK and be spent overseas! Great sense that!

but that will not cause a problem for me at my age, I hope it will not be a problem for my kids.

i hope all those people who are registered to vote, do, I believe in democracy and will love my birth country always, though I may have to leave the GB.

 

 





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11 Jun 2016 1:58 PM by MANXMONKEY Star rating in Channel Islands. 81 posts Send private message

MANXMONKEY´s avatar

Tteedd...your idea of even letting the kids with better academic achievement go to university is considered incredibly incorrect..probably racist and definitely non pc.  The arguments on the BBC today were how to get poor kids a degree whatever their ability.  The universities are fighting to get 7.6% of 2.8% into 1% of nothing. They are so far up their jaxies ticking boxes they seem in total confusion.  Please don't make it worse by saying the clever kids should go to University too...oh the other thing was that some vip representing the lower tier universities accused top tier unis of expecting applicants to speak English. The elitist swines.





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11 Jun 2016 12:43 PM by perrypower1 Star rating in Derbyshire/Fuerteven.... 647 posts Send private message

perrypower1´s avatar

Brexit lost the economic argument before they even started.  That is why they argue bogus numbers and then try to justify it when caught out.  I can't think of anyone who starts a monthly budget off on the basis of gross income rather than net.  

But Boris Johnson and Nigel Farge have never concerned themselves with detail before now so why change.

leave has one argument and that is playing the immigration card.  They can't spell out how they would get migration down other than sealing borders.  So what is that going to cost us?   £1,500,000,000 per year just in salaries for yet more government employees.  And then infrastructure costs?   Ten times that to get it up and running.  





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11 Jun 2016 12:10 PM by tteedd Star rating in Hertfordshire & Punt.... 990 posts Send private message

You are right M M the economic argument has not realy even been started.

The government knew the elections are mainly won on the economy so fired off, undemocratically, using pubilc money, a broadside of hastily produced reports from all the bodies it could call in before the three week purdah period started.

Perhaps the most believable of these was the one from the treasury but even that was covered in the chancellors fingerprints.

So, even if we take the treasury short term dip as gospel, we can compare this with the well documented long term underperformance of the EU. The answer even on this comparison is clear. The economic choice is leave.

But there are people, economists, who have spent the whole of their life studiying the problem. I would suggest if you want a clear picture you should find out which of these has been sucessful in past predictions and take most notice of these.

Nobody of course can really know the future, if they did they would be multi-millionaires. But it is easy to make a more informed guess, that is more likely to be accurate, than the 'in' propaganda and scare stories.





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11 Jun 2016 12:02 PM by ads Star rating. 4124 posts Send private message

Although I appreciate your aims  to limit student debt Ttedd, don't  forget the latest analysis which suggests that white working class boys in the UK are apparently now the worst educated... if funding be directed to those who come from a relatively  privileged background  for whom the debt can be repaid at a quicker rate ( at present the majority of high achievers in the NHS come from such a background ) at the expense of those less privileged in our society then the divide, discontent and  under achievement in the country  would only widen would it not? 

 

 


This message was last edited by ads on 11/06/2016.



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11 Jun 2016 11:44 AM by perrypower1 Star rating in Derbyshire/Fuerteven.... 647 posts Send private message

perrypower1´s avatar

Just the facts ma’am.  What do non-politicians with real knowledge and expertise say.

“I would say on balance of probability; it is more likely we’ll have less money in our pockets if we vote to leave.” Martin Lewis, Consumer Champion

“Staying in is better for the NHS, it is better for women and it is better for midwives.” Cathy Warwick, Chief Executive, Royal College of Midwives

“Leaving the EU is the biggest domestic risk to financial stability.” Mark Carney, Governor of Bank of England

“UK business can create more jobs in Europe than out on our own.” Karren Brady

“Leaving the EU would be very, very damaging for GB.” Richard Branson

“Brexit would have massive implications for jobs, rights and the very fabric of the UK.  If you take that floor away, workers will be worse off.” Frances O’Grady, TUC General Secretary

“Leaving the EU would be a disaster for science.” Stephen Hawking

House building companies and housing associations, including Barratt Developments and Wates Group, say a vote for Brexit would cause economic uncertainty and damage investment which would make the housing crisis worse.

"What any developer requires is confidence and continued support from their financial investors - and those investors need certainty over wider market conditions."

"Leaving the EU would also have an impact on the UK's housing supply chain companies, which employ millions of people across the UK. This could disrupt the production and import of the supplies needed for building such as bricks and blocks. This will further delay and add costs on Britain's house builders."

Leaving the EU poses a "key risk" to British science, a group of 13 Nobel prize-winning scientists have warned.

"Inside the EU, Britain helps steer the biggest scientific powerhouse in the world.  EU decisions about scientific policy, funding and regulatory frameworks affect science the world over, and are influenced by British scientists. On the inside, Britain has access to people and funding and wields global scientific influence, far greater than we have alone."

On the other hand, James Dyson, who no longer manufactures any of his products in the UK (it all went to Malaysia where labour is cheap) would prefer to Brexit.  He claims, the single market did not work because exporters had to adapt products like his to cater for different languages and different types of plugs and the EU wanted electrical goods to be efficient.  However, he also said it would be "suicidal" for Britain not to join the single currency. In 2014 he had called for the free movement of people within the EU to be retained.  He is worth £3,000,000,000. 





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11 Jun 2016 11:30 AM by tteedd Star rating in Hertfordshire & Punt.... 990 posts Send private message

How to spend our EU subscription if we leave.

I have other ideas on how we should fund the NHS so have been giving this some thought.

I beleive, in the long term, it should be spent on giving the top 25%, by ability, of students a free university education.

I could not beleive it when a Labour government introduced Fees and loans after promising not to. Nor could I beleive it when the Liberal partners in the coalition abandoned their promise (and electoral chances).

The country would have the most to gain from well educated youngsters who are not saddled by debt.

I have long had ideas on who and how many university places should be funded but that ought to be on a different thread (or even a different notice-board, as it does not relate much to Spain).





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11 Jun 2016 11:20 AM by MANXMONKEY Star rating in Channel Islands. 81 posts Send private message

MANXMONKEY´s avatar

I keep hearing reference to "Economists" like Goldman Sachs (the cheating liars who scammed Greece's membership of the EU / Euro) stating dire consequences should Britain leave.  I am stunned because I read most investment and economy magazines and they are all stating the argument for Leaving.  Here's this mornings Money Week bit...

"As the EU referendum looms, there has been a great deal of chatter about how the Remain campaign has already “won the economic argument”. But Dominic Frisby isn’t convinced. He delved into the EU’s economic record. Exactly how good, or bad, has it been?

First he looked at GDP. Back in 1973, the countires that now make up the EU produced 38% of global GDP. When the EU formally began in 1993 it generated just under 25%. Today this figure stands at 17%. That’s a 55% drop.


Next up, wealth. Here, using GDP per capita as our measure, the UK has inched up from 29th on the list of wealthiest countries in 1973, up to 18th in 1993, and 13th today. That’s not a bad performance. But, interestingly, nations that border the EU but are not actually members – the likes of Switzerland, Norway and Iceland – have done even better. In 1973, just one of them made the top ten richest countries. Today, all three make the grade.

Finally, Dominic considered the overall size of EU countries’ economies. In 1973, there were four EU member states in the world’s largest ten economics – the UK stood in fifth place. In 1993 there were five EU nations in the top ten. And today there are just four again, including the UK which has risen from sixth to fifth.


 





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11 Jun 2016 11:16 AM by Hephaestus Star rating in The Peak District Na.... 1230 posts Send private message

Knighthoods for inner supporters, what next 20 lashes for outers? 



_______________________

I'm Spartacus, well why not?




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11 Jun 2016 11:11 AM by OMARELL Star rating in Baldock Hertfordshir.... 47 posts Send private message

I am coming to the conclusion that we Europeans are better without the winging Poms UkK get out of Europe Now!



_______________________
Omarell



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11 Jun 2016 9:30 AM by bobaol Star rating. 2253 posts Send private message

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@murray09

Please explain where the EHIC isn't valid? Unless you're talking about the hysteria whipped up a couple of years ago by some of the so-called popular press when people went to private medical centres instead of Spanish NHS ones.

The blue EHIC is valid at all NHS establishments and always has been. However, it doesn't cost the Spanish that much as costs are recouped from UK. It's also only valid for urgent and emergency treatment on short stays, unlike many who actually live here and abuse the system.

 

 





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11 Jun 2016 9:19 AM by Hephaestus Star rating in The Peak District Na.... 1230 posts Send private message

Briando55,

I couldn't agree more re England (so called) football supporters, as a SWFC supporter I realise that even though we were blameless for the 96 deaths that occurred during the FA Cup semi final, we must show an example to others. The French police are very nervous following the terror attacks, if some dick heads start throwing bottles at them they might just return to the UK in body bags. 

 


This message was last edited by Hephaestus on 11/06/2016.

_______________________

I'm Spartacus, well why not?




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11 Jun 2016 8:17 AM by murray09 Star rating. 1 posts Send private message

you say that we cost spain so much money for healthcare,so how come that the blue health card we hold for europe is no longer valid in spain,and has not been recognised by so many hospitals in spain for some time now, the majority of hospitals do not recognise this and ask you to pay. so no i dont think we cost spain that amount.Like a lot of politicians numbers are grabbed out of thin air.still enjoy spain though,people are lovely.





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11 Jun 2016 8:03 AM by briando55 Star rating in Yorkshire. 1982 posts Send private message

Yes the Andrew Neil interviews have been very informative, he is a journalist I trust (and that's something I don't say often).  

I agree Ads, the politicians don't fully understand the complexities, which is why information is polarised, and why we are ever more confused.  I think it's dangerous to try and be exact about any financial forecasts, it's more a gut feeling of the overall picture we probably should focus on. 

I saw the question time panel with Eddie izzard Thursday evening, he accused the out team of bringing up immigration too much.   He then brought it up so many times the audience had to shout at him to shut up.   

The out team are accusing the government about extending the vote enrolment time (vote rigging) while at the same time saying leaving the EU will give us powers to make our own laws in the  name of democracy. 

Another classical greek word is hypocrisy and it applies in equal measures to democracy in this campaign IMHO.

Still not made my mind up yet!!!!



_______________________

Best wishes, Brian

 




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11 Jun 2016 2:03 AM by tteedd Star rating in Hertfordshire & Punt.... 990 posts Send private message

I recommend the Andrew Neil interviews. You can find them on Iplayer.

He has done two 'in' and one 'out' so far. The second 'out' is next Friday.

He does his level best to nail the participants on their exaggerations and inconsistancies.

There is much to ponder for both sides of the argument.

I wish I could have fed him a few questions, but then I suppose so do you!





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11 Jun 2016 1:30 AM by ads Star rating. 4124 posts Send private message

I completely relate to what you have just commented briando55, but these hidden complexities associated with EU economics appear to have major implications on member states, but they are never fully explained in language that citizens can comprehend. For instance the EU stability and growth pact is mind blowing in its complexity see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stability_and_Growth_Pact

There were hidden complex financial arrangements associated with the last financial crisis from which we are all now paying the price in terms of austerity measures. Therefore isn't it essential that awareness needs to be heightened and lessons learned from risks associated with hidden financial complexities?

With this in mind therefore perhaps the question to ask is, are the warnings of a eurozone crisis realistic and will this inevitably cause a downward spiral for all eurozone countries, but in that "inevitable process" will this place us at risk also if we remain in the European Union, even though we are not part of the eurozone?

Don't our politicians from all political persuasions owe us truthful explanations in this regard? Why would they deny or attempt to hide such important facts from us? Do they fully comprehend the complexities themselves?





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