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Destry,
I'm well aware of that. I'm talking about a falling birthrate in the UK and the rest of EU, which is why Frau Merckl wants all these immigrants. Some countries are looking at a decreasing population, (not good). Why don't we limit child benefit to, say 3.
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tenerife,
You have obviously never driven through a UK sink council estate, how do you think that the residents manage to claim over £30K p/a in benefits for a couple? They keep on knocking out another child to replace the ones that attain the age of 16, a late mate of mine who was a headteacher at one of their schools told me of an ex pupil of his who was now the grandmother of a current pupil, she was 32 years of age.
The system can always justify funding serial benefits claimants because the people who rubber stamp these payments are usually the well meaning, well brought up kids of well paid, well housed, left wing parents. University is the finishing school for these guys, the current system looks at a liberal as being right wing, the benefits system pays many millions to the folk who authorise the payments, hail to the gravy train.
This message was last edited by Destry on 14/10/2016.
_______________________ IF YOU WISH TO QUOTE ANY OF MY POSTS PLEASE DO SO IN THEIR ENTIRETY AND NOT JUST A FEW SELECTED WORDS TOTALLY OUT OF CONTEXT.
THANK YOU.
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As a country we are really struggling with BREXIT.
Economically, we have not fallen off a cliff after the vote, but we seem to be in a slow freefall to something unknown.
There is a lot of rhetoric at the moment. My favourites are, "The EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU" and "The UK will negotiate a trade deal with the EU which is better than we have now without free movement of people".
Triggering Article.50 is now the subject of a court case. No matter the outcome it will move to the Appeal Court and no matter the outcome of that it will move to the EU Courts. The UK Government either has a plan or it does not. They refuse to let Parliament have a say on Article.50 based on a Constitutional loophole. The basis for the refusal is the majority have spoken and if BREXIT does not happen there will be civil outrage. The problem is, there will be civil outrage if Parliament does not get a say because that is what the electorate expects and anything less is dictatorial. Parliament is not just the domain of those who voted Tory or Labour or UKIP etc or BREXIT. It is there for everyone who voted. In the normal course of politics, the Governing Party can have their way by virtue of their majority. It is clear that a majority does not exist in the case of BREXIT within Parliament.
If Article.50 is triggered by the PM and not Parliament can and will the EU even recognise it?
This message was last edited by perrypower1 on 14/10/2016.
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One way out of this demographic problem is for Europeans to have more children; so less need for immigration. That could lead to another problem: overpopulation, which is why China introduced the 1 child policy, which again has led to problems. We are living longer and healthier, so maybe the only way out is for increasing the retirement even more. This of course is the opposite of what we were told not so many years ago: that with improved automation/technology we would be retiring earlier and enjoying ourselves!
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BigAl2015
This thread is titled Brexit (from the EU). In the context of this thread, the balance of trade and payments I'm referring to, is consistent with the thread title, ie trade between the UK and the EU. As such, it refers to exports, not entire GDP. I thought that was clear.
Your link is fine, but you'll notice it talks about a time line that is some way into the future. As we've seen in just a few short months, dramatic things can change. This may mean it gets better, alternatively, and its hard to see how, but it may mean things get even worse. I'll come to that in a response to Ads in a moment.
Immigration - To quote the Australian Prime Minister "We shall decide who comes into the country, and the conditions under which they come". This is great as a starting point. I would still point out the exact same points I made previously regarding the greying demographic. As more and more people move out of work and into retirement, this means a few things happen; less tax receipts from these people, more expenses towards their aged care, and a smaller proportion of people IN work to pay for this, due to decreased tax receipts. Where will the funds come from to look after our elderly? I can talk at length about this, but this is a problem that has a lagged outcome, and short term thinking won't solve this problem. If I can just give you a parallel argument, look at China; there, there is a situation now where 1 man is supporting 7 people (husband, wife, child, and 4 elderly retired grandparents). The family unit is breaking down because 1 person cant realistically support 7, and these able bodied men are leaving their families behind. If you look at this problem, you may recognise that we are heading towards this outcome, where a small pool of resources is looking after an increasingly large group, as our medicine and nutrition allows people to live longer.
In short, if you have a solution to the greying demographic problem, please provide it. I will nail my flag to the mast right now, and tell you that immigrants who come, are of working economically productive age, and who can begin contributing to tax receipts, are something to be viewed positively. Again, look at the what the immigrants managed in the US. An enourmous rise of capability, in a very short space of time, which was enough to defeat the old empire.
Finally, your point about "goading" Windtalker. I am very sorry you feel this way. However, WT has made a number of points regarding input costs which, if I am completely honest with you, make no sense whatsoever. Please re-read what was said. I take a lot of time to write my thoughts, and try to be balanced. I'm not here to deliberately upset people, but in saying that, when I see someone writing things along those lines, I feel compelled to call them out. And in the same vein, I hope you will see that when I write things, I try to cite a source where it may be appropriate. I have stated in the past 44% as a statistic. You have backed up exactly what I have said with your own article pasted here, so it would seem to suggest I am posting things with some degree of evidence. Unlike some (WT)?
Ads
Trade disagreement and consequences? You mentioned purchasing power. I wonder if you mean that in the sense of a block of people grouping together (thinking Tesco, Morrisons, Aldi, Waitrose, etc), or whether you mean this in the sense of purely the economic sense, being currency purchasing power.
Assuming the former, no agreement would mean WTO rules kick in, and tarriffs apply. In the short term, many firms would go out of business, on both sides (The UK and the EU). What is at risk? 44% for the UK, and 9% for the EU. It wont be that the entire segment would disappear though; there will still be sales, just at much higher prices due to tarriffs.
Assuming the latter, the UKs purchasing power has actually DECREASED, due to the devalued sterling.
Neither of the above is a good outcome.
This message was last edited by rob_j1 on 14/10/2016.
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Is it correct to say that if the EU refuse to negotiate on trade through a dogmatic approach that leaves no room for compromise, that the UK ( and consumers with their purchasing power) will ultimately look elsewhere for trade deals that provide better economic incentives, and the EU will lose out?
If the EU refuse to negotiate on mutually convenient deals then savvy consumers will surely have the purchasing power to pressure EU companies (such as the car manufacturers and wine producers etc) to be more competitive when other competitively priced products become available from a global source. Wont other global companies be keen to fill the gap caused by the EUs intransigence to deal? The UKs consumer purchasing power should never be under-estimated.
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By George I think windtalker may have got it uk borders are controlled entry criteria checked and all that
Sad he has to use foul language
windtalker - Please don't compare me to you as I see nothing that could justify your comment regarding Spanish politics
You really are scraping the barrel now
This message was last edited by Tadd1966 on 14/10/2016.
_______________________ “The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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The UK faces the stark choice of either a hard Brexit or no Brexit, the president of the European council has said – the first time he has taken such a clear line on the likely outcome of the UK’s exit talks.
Just hours after the foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, had told a committee of MPs he was confident Britain could strike a better trade deal with the EU after Brexit, Donald Tusk used a speech in Brussels to scotch the idea that Britain can “have its cake and eat it”.
Speaking to an audience of policymakers in Brussels on Thursday, Tusk – who chairs EU leaders’ summits – said it was useless to speculate about a soft Brexit, in which the UK remained a member of the single market. “The only real alternative to a hard Brexit is no Brexit, even if today hardly anyone believes in such a possibility.”
Without naming Johnson, notorious in Brussels for his jokey phrase that Britain could have its cake and eat it, Tusk criticised “the proponents of the cake philosophy” who argued the UK could be part of the EU single market without bearing any of the costs.
Guardian 14th October.
_______________________ Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Britain’s trade deficit with other European Union countries is running at a record high. Goods and services coming in and going out of the UK reveal that the gap between exports and imports in the first three months of 2016 widened by £0.7bn to £23.9bn.
There is also a trade deficit of goods and services with the rest of the world of £8.9 billion.
Exports to the EU represent about 13% of Britain’s GDP. Without a single market trade deal the goods and services Britain currently enjoys will incur import tariffs of between 10 to 20% depending on the classification.
With imports attracting the same tariffs and the devaluation of Sterling everything in the country in the future will be much more expensive. That will kick off a demand for higher wages and the entire spiral pf prices and incomes conflict of the seventies will return.
_______________________ Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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rob_j1
I fortunately / unfrotunately do not run my own business, so if I have misunderstood the thread then I apologise in advance.
As I see it 44% of our exports go to the EU, this is where I am not sure, but is 44% of our exports the same as 44% of our economy?
Also I have cut and pasted a comment below, thts shows exactly why we should be thinking 'Globally' rather than 'European (EU).
Trade with the EU matters a lot, but less than it used to
About 44% of UK exports in goods and services went to other countries in the EU in 2015—£220 billion out of £510 billion total exports.
That share has been declining, because exports to other countries have been increasing at a faster rate.
The European Commission itself says that “over the next ten to 15 years, 90% of world demand will be generated outside Europe”.
53% of our imports into the UK came from other countries in the EU in 2015. That proportion hasn’t changed that much over the past 16 years.
Also on the point of immigration / emmigration, are you advocating 'controlled immigration' or 'uncontrolled immigration'?.
By the way your 'goading' of Windtalker is starting to get offensive.
This message was last edited by BigAl2015 on 14/10/2016.
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Windtalker
Obviously you have a bee in your bonnet about the immigration question, however you have completely bypassed the point about being able to sell 44% of our economy to them as well and generating enormous wealth in the process. You still havent responded to the point despite being asked multiple times now about input costs.
I'm beginning to think you have not, in fact, run two successful businesses. Otherwise you would understand more about the economic implications of doing business with people over "their"...
Why do you focus on the immigration point, yet completely ignore the wealth generated by sending 44% of our goods and services to them?
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Yes I understand now the EU is a two way street ,and it's the UK population fault for not taking advantage and emigrating to Romania/Bulgaria/Spain and the likes ,l will spread the word around maybe the population of the UK doesn't know that ,especially all the lazy bastards in the UK that have preference to claiming the dole as Tadd1966 keeps going on about maybe thay will want to migrate their and claime the dole .
This message was last edited by windtalker on 13/10/2016.
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Windtalker
The connection? The connection is that its a two way street. Freedom of movement of people both ways and freedom of capital flows / access to the single market. With one, you get the other. Its very simple; for someone who has apparently run two successful businesses, I would have thought you would understand this?
You still havent come back to us on the input costs question...
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Tadd 1966 as you have seen yourself ,uncontrolled EU migration at the UK airport border control with no background checks , (hence the big queues) .and like you I cannot comment on Spanish politics due to only owning a holiday home that I visit approximately 8 time's per year for a week at a time.
This message was last edited by windtalker on 13/10/2016.
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UNILEVER backs down setting a PRESIDENCE for the FIGHT ahead
Now lets sort those EU BAFFOONS OUT
Love Hugh xx
Power to the PEOPLE
_______________________ Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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Yes I live I spain but travel to uk on a regular basis for my business and family interests
The uk has very good border control as can be seen everytime I enter the uk big queues checking passports etc another media rag myth
Please don't tell me what I do or don't understand you know nothing about me what I do when and where
Students still pay a lot of money for fees accommodation food drink etc etc
As do workers
All contributing to the economy
_______________________ “The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Tadd1966 students are not economic migrants ,and with no border control migration into UK was and still is out of control but you would not see this as you live in Spain permanent and their for only rely on second hand misguided information from fellow expats that just do not understand what is going on in the UK.
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EU migration is not out of control most come over to either study and pay huge uni fees or to work and pay taxes
If the govt used this income to help fund the school and hospitals instead of funding the lazy benefit scrounging brits who won't get off their backside to work then that is not the EU or the EU migrants fault
_______________________ “The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Rob-ji what's your post got to do with out of control emigration and the U K governments failure to provide the services that these emigrants require to live a comfortable life in the UK ,what they got was schools closing /hospitals closing/no housing/cuts cuts more cuts ,with absolutely no provision for these migrants.
This message was last edited by windtalker on 13/10/2016.
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Tenerife
You forgot the heinous absence of Marmite. How can you possibly say everything is alright apart from the £? By the way, businesses have a technique called scenario based planning, to guide what will happen. It is as plain as day, that no one with even half a brain in government, thought to consider what might happen. And to put the icing on the cake, even with the pound dropping, the evidence of input costs (Marmite, and our own good Windtalker), and inflation that will be imported along with every single good and service that costs more due to our devalued pound, we are heading into negative territory, and yet even with this, the "powers that be" arent even remotely stopping to think, "Is this a good idea, now that we see the markets turning to custard"?
Windtalker
You havent come back to us on the discussion of input costs I see? While you're on the subject of how bad all these immigrants are, did you also forget that 44% of the British economy sells goods to the self-same market of the EU without tariffs? This competitive advantage has been instrumental in allowing the UK to become wealthy. Or did you, in your haste to demonise migrants, conveniently forget that?
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