Just my take on the current property market...

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23 May 2008 12:00 AM by shar Star rating in Campo in Albatera, C.... 36 posts Send private message

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The property market has slowed down and many property agents, on the coast, especially, have closed their doors. Maybe it’s the change in people’s views and that some people are now happier to move inland away from areas where there are so many ex pats an holiday makers, as for some it’s not like living in Spain in some areas?? More than likely we can blame the rate of the euro for much of this! However there are many factors and whatever they are some people are still coming to Spain to live despite this. 

There are families that have planned this move for a long time and are so far down the line that is that cliché or is it a TV programme, there really is no going back! So their budget is possibly lower, but they are still coming!  I remember when we were planning our move nearly 6 years ago, we were quite close at one stage and I suddenly stopped in my tracks, I was petrified, I thought Oh my god! What are we doing! The thing that got me through this stage was that the alternative…staying put in a country and in a business where we were unhappy, was in fact, so much worse than the apprehension of stepping into the unknown new life that lay ahead of us…. So here we are.

 What is really happening though with the property market now in 2008 and what effect it is having on some of us ex pats a few years down the line from when we bought here? 

In my opinion and this is just an opinion! Before I get an ear bashing off someone who knows better! I think some of the reasons (forgetting not least all the obvious overbuilding) is that some people who bought a few years ago when prices were much higher are now finding themselves when having to sell on for whatever reason.  That they are struggling to obtain a price they have been expecting and that’s if they can get any offers! add to this the state of the euro and it is looking a bit bleak for many. It’s this demand rather than the actual value that sets a price and what someone will pay for a property when demand is high is more often than not a higher price than the actual market value. Because of the demand a few years ago people have too high an expectation of what they can get for their property now. I am not saying it’s the property owners that are at fault as sometimes it’s others who have given them this false hope in the first place. Lets face it if we were told this year we can expect 50,000euros less for example than we could have expected last year, we then feel we have lost it somehow, even if we never really had it in the first place. It happened to us in the UK…twice, we lost once in the property market and we won the next so it’s not something confined to Spain!
 Look at statistics. Perhaps it would be wiser to get a proper valuation from a bank, and not always rely on a valuation by a sometimes unqualified person; many people that are giving valuations or opinions, which is what they so often, are, are not often qualified to do so. 

A valuation is often only one person's opinion (of course there is a strategy, with a bank valuation, a price on land and buildings but this often alters due to economical climate as well) The true value is what someone will actually pay for your property at that particular time, this is the demand and value theory.

You cannot really say what someone will pay for a property at anytime in the future as there are so many situations that change and alter peoples ideas. The price which can be agreed at the time depends on the way the market is, the individual situation and that of course can change in the course of time depending on many factors not least being the mortgage rates and again the economical climate and in addition the need or wish to sell and at what point and how desperate the need, again to buy or sell? 

Many properties that are on the market in this particular area, I cannot speak for other places, have been so for maybe two years or more. Is this because demand is not as high or are they overpriced, or is it a bit of both? Whatever it is prices are coming down! Is it enough? A proper bank valuation to ascertain a more realistic value could stop sellers and buyers from being too disappointed in the long term, when for example, they have an offer or accept and offer, only to then be told by the bank that the valuation is not enough for the mortgage the buyers need! The then potential sale falls down leaving everyone very disheartened. Banks are getting much tighter now, in fairness to them they have to… they don’t really want the properties that owners cannot afford to keep so they reduce their risk and lend less. Low valuations by the bank are especially common with country properties on rustic land.

In addition many people also apply for mortgages with proof of income from their country of origin, so what happens if they move here without that earning potential, what if their current situation changes, what then!!  

One of the main reasons people move to Spain is the climate and the cheaper cost of living, there is still a gap between the cost of living here in Spain and that of the UK, but nothing like the gap of the past, and most people especially if they still need to work need to get some equity out of the property that they are selling in their home country to live on here, and so may take a bigger mortgage to cover themselves. This nest egg is still needed whether they are retired or working to be honest as it takes time and a lot of money to set up home in a new country more than your average pension so if you are retired you need to have some savings too.

It is quite upsetting, when I hear some stories and see some results of the effects of families moving over here, just not prepared. It is by no means easy to relocate here but if you have the means and are sensible it really does reap rewards. Whether you live in Spain or the UK or wherever! It doesn’t make a difference where you are, you still need to live your life and for this you need an income. It may be warm and sunny here but it’s not a permanent holiday when you live here and if you treat it as such and are not realistic, you may get a shock sooner than you thought, like many people who aren’t prepared they then find they have nowhere to turn for help. It is so important to be realistic and honest to yourselves because if you are not when the money runs out and you have no means to pay the increasing mortgage payments and then, the really unlucky ones who have to return to their country of origin, because this is the only place they can get help to live. There is no support here like there is in the UK, I often get emails asking can I get this or that benefit, or can I transfer my benefits from the UK to here. Well the short answer is NO under normal circumstances you can’t, if you are not self sufficient then you will have to work very hard unless you are careful in fact even if you are careful, I have never worked so hard in my life as I do here! Plan well ahead and do your research thoroughly. 

It has to be a while until the confidence in the property market is restored, helped along by all the bad press and the horror stories it’s not really surprising! If I were setting out now? I would certainly be doing my homework and using the experiences of others who have done the same. Ultimately I help people relocate and I wouldn’t have a job if it weren’t for people still coming and buying property here, so I am not trying to put anyone off, but knowing I had helped people arm themselves the best they can and make them more aware of the pitfalls gives me great satisfaction.  Take heart, its not all doom and gloom, look around though and there are hundreds of people here, having a good life, earning a living or retired and happy.  It’s a pity though with regards to the bad press but, funny how they never seem to sensationalize the happy stories. With the exception of the euro the turndown has to have started in the heart of the country that first caused the problem, people ex pats and wannabe ex pats have to see evidence of some of the bigger problems being sorted, that make people very nervous of buying here, these problems also effect the market and the amount of people taking the plunge including the massive subject of illegal properties being sold to unsuspecting ex pats. (I feel another topic coming on here). We have brought millions of euros into a country that is now benefiting greatly from all the spending that we do here. Surely this is plain to see to all who live and work here we have created jobs we have made a lot of people in many industries very wealthy and if it is to continue there are many problems to be solved.  There are promises that have been made but it will be a while now before many have the confidence to take the plunge and before we see an upturn in the market again. Getting back to the euro for a minute, anyone who is selling and leaving Spain should realize if they hadn’t already that they will get more pounds for their euros at the current rate and so could in fact reassess their situation they may be surprised! 

Its a worrying time for many...


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Shar www.livespainforlife.com



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23 May 2008 8:58 AM by EOS Team Star rating in In Spain of course!. 4015 posts Send private message

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Hi Shar

Great summary of the situation.  We have seen so many people come and go.  They were just totally unprepared for what life is really like in Spain, especially when it comes to earning money.

We (I) planned everything very badly and ran out of money after just 4 months when we first moved out here.  It was an absolute nightmare but there really was no going back for us (we'd sold everything and spent everything) so I had to dig my heals in and find a way out.  Which I did, although it was really tough.  If I'd known how hard it was going to be I would probably never have done it.

I think that it's important that people don't look to Spain as a solultion to their problems/ life.  We know many couples that have broken up through the stress of moving and working here.  Many people we knew who came over to sell property have since vanished having lost a lot of money and time.  It really ISN'T one big holiday here.

Some friends of ours who are agents here, and highly recommendable ones too, are having a really tough time of it at the moment.  Even the good ones are struggling.  

Saying that, they tell me that there is still interest, they are still getting buyers through the doors but they are losing a lot of sales because the banks keep pulling mortgages off the market and valuations are lower too.  Some agents we know are now moving to the higher end of the market as these buyers, although there are fewer, tend to not have the same issues as the "run of the mill" ones, and obviously the returns are better.

Tough times all round.

We have a great life here but I have worked harder to achieve it than I ever worked back home.  Setting up a business in the UK is MUCH easier than doing the same in Spain.  For most it's not an easy life in Spain unless you have buckets full of money. Work hours are "odd" and salaries can be very low, whilst the cost of living, particularly along the coasts, is nowhere near as low as it used to be.  

Justin



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23 May 2008 12:12 PM by sharonw Star rating in Coin, Malaga. 281 posts Send private message

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We moved here 7 years ago and after a settling in period and allowing for the novelty to wear off(!) were both, my hubby and me  very fortunate to find well paid (although not UK standard) employment with a well known real estate agent (which has long since closed its doors). Athough my background from year dot has been in finance, I welcomed the change in career, managing the administration dept. and thought it had to be less stressful than what I was used to in the UK.  I loved my job, it was very enjoyable and very challenging and I have to concur with Justin that because of the sheer volume of work (back then it was phenomenal!) and pressure on deadlines I had never worked in a more stressful environment and found I was working harder than ever!

So everthing was rosy, both in employment, with a permanent contact and getting paid, added to that no mortgage to pay, life could not be better!   Then hubby was 'laid off' he was one of the first casualties and needless to say when the company some months later closed its doors I too was out of employment and found we were back living off our savings!  Our so rosy life suddenly had a cloud hanging over it!   Finding further employment was not very successful as by then other large companies were making job cuts and office based jobs were like gold dust!  There was never a time that we considered going back to the UK, and in any case, where and what would we go back to!  I knew through dogged determination that there would be a job opportunity for me and eventually fate brought me back to the world of finance, where I remain to this day.  The downside was that we had to up sticks from the coast in Manilva, sell our house and move to another area, and it felt like we were starting all over again! My husband on the other hand never has been able to find further employment and of course times have changed and options are even more limited.     Coming here 7 years ago there were plenty of jobs in the real estate business particularly in the sales sector and even back then for people relocating here that or bar work held the only employment opportunity.

In this current climate I would say both these options are now non existant, we know the real estate business is suffering and we know there are less tourists because of the excahnge rate making Spain a more expensive place to holiday and the knock on effect will be bars and restaurants suffering in the downturn.   

The business I am in is also obviously suffering, with nigh on all banks changing their lending criteria, all round and my heart goes out to everyone who bought off plan, looking to complete and finding that the mortgage products are now drastically different to what was available, even up until the end of last year. Because many LTVs have decresaed coupled with lower valuations it is neccessary to find further funds to complete and of course not everyone is in a position to do this.   

Spain is a great place to live, and a great environment to bring children up in and I would say for anyone now thinking of relocating here to help make it a smoother transition be realistic in your expectations and have as much money as possible behind you!

I remain positive and know there is a waiting game ahead, until confidence is restored and I am sure we will find it will be for the better in that with all the bad press Spain has experienced with regards to mayors, developers, lawyers etc. a more ethical approach can be reached.


_______________________

Regards

Sharon

sharon@tmasspain.com

 www.themortgageservicegroup.com

 




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24 May 2008 10:37 AM by pknott Star rating in Costa Blanca. 142 posts Send private message

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Its good to see so many comments about the reality of life rather than the usual tosh. I think the moral of the story is that with the world economy as it is cash is king and it needs to be combined with a good job.

Moving to spain is not the panacea for some that it used to be. All of us that have been driven by the plethora of programmes on TV to start a new life are all finding that the capital we had wrapped up in our homes that we wanted to sell is disappearing fast. I think the tough times are going to be around for some time to come as the world economies self-correct

Prices of houses in all European countries are on the way down, none more than Ireland, but also the UK and Spain. When I was in spain in early I spoke to an agent who still described the market as good, I think its time that everyone was honest, buyers, sellers and agents. I will be moving in August with I hope my job intact and also money from my house sale, but unless I get both it won't happen. The time to take a risk has gone, safety for my family and I is now paramount....but dreams...are and have always been free!! So until I get my contract signed and agreement on my job....I'll keep dreaming


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26 May 2008 9:49 AM by EOS Team Star rating in In Spain of course!. 4015 posts Send private message

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Very wise words pknott.  I wish I'd read your post moving over, it could have saved me a lot of heartache.

Justin

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26 May 2008 4:27 PM by Rixxy Star rating in San Pedro. 2010 posts Send private message

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Yes but Justin - you only live once. The experiences you have captured are priceless. I doubt anyone found it easy moving here, either with or without money. People come and go for various reasons not just because they run out of money

I love it here - there is nowhere else I would consider living and I feel it is my home. Hard graft a lot of the time, but the lifestyle makes it up for me. And I dont mean partying etc. Im a stay at home person really and love nothing more than to sit at a beach bar having a coffee or three and watching the sea move.

Its not everyones cup of tea but then nowhere is.

You made it past a challenge and that gives huge satisfaction. You didnt give up but got through it. What an example to set your kids and fair play to you.



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26 May 2008 7:46 PM by Acapulco Star rating in Costa Blanca South.. 342 posts Send private message

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Rixxy,yes- " you only live once"- I keep trying to explain that to my daughter who does not understand why we want to move to Spain. ( she is 40 and has 4 kids) I try to explain that now we are both retired we want to change our life style,try a new challenge  and enjoy the warmer weather that should be good for my back problem. It's hard work though.


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26 May 2008 9:00 PM by pknott Star rating in Costa Blanca. 142 posts Send private message

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And on the dream aspect....my wife looked at the picture I took from a house we are renting on CB (Its on our home PC desktop) and called me to say how much she wants to move and live in Spain. (She is just finishing "Spanish Lessons" by Derek Lambert)

I am working hard to make it all come true...roll on August....(of course it could all go pear shaped)

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27 May 2008 12:39 PM by Rixxy Star rating in San Pedro. 2010 posts Send private message

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Hi Acapulco - yes it is scary and if I were older who knows.

Im now looking at my two kids on the eve of their start in life and just hoping I have prepared them as best I can. Reason is they are out more than they are in and one weekend it really got to me.

Then I sat down and realised that now is my time in life, whats left of it Im going to experience, enjoy and live. Grab everything that comes along - you can always let go, but you may regret not grabbing it!

Once you are out here she will love it - come and see you in this fab weather, the kids will love it as well.

My parents were the other way around, didnt want to leave me behind when they were going to first move out about 20 years ago. I told my dad I would rather see them for 2 weeks relaxed, happy and healthy, than for a few minutes on a wednesday evening when they were too tired from work to speak to me!

They didnt move out until 2 weeks after I made the move! Go for it

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29 May 2008 11:46 AM by georgia Star rating in Algorfa (As seen on .... 1835 posts Send private message

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Hi All,
Right,i am going to buck the trend and run the risk of being shot down by giving my views on the market at the moment.
Yes the pound is weak,the credit crunch is biting and prices are falling if not slightly across the world.
I know distressed property has been discussed before and it can be a misleading tag for some owners that have knocked a few quid off so i am going to stick my neck out and give some real facts.
I have been in negotiation with 2 of Spains largest banks over the last 2 weeks and have further meetings planned through my connections within the sector.
You can now buy GENUINE stock from the bank where people have defaulted on their payments.
This is not a myth,not a sales ploy,it is real..........
Example; 2 bed 1 bath,fully airconned,fully furnished,underground parking,beautiful communal gardens and pagoda,fantastic views great location in Algorfa village,walk to the square,shops bars etc and on and on.....
Price from the builder 2 years ago 138,000€ price from the bank today 88,000€!!!!!! 
These are real!!!!!!!!
2 bed 2 bath townhouse in Dona pepa built by Euromarina and still being sold by them today at 175,000€
From the bank 118,000€!!!!!!!
I could go on and on and will probably get shot down by some for blatant advertising but this is really a case in point to prove that these deals are not myths and do exist.
I will leave it to your imaginations to see what this will do for the market as these begin to become avaliable,this will literally turn the clock back to when prices were more attractive.
There is quite an easy way to find oput whether agents advertising real bank disposal are trying it on with desperate vendors or if they are real.
I wanted to do this post as people may be missing out or being over chasrged for similar properties
sorry if this has broken the rules but it was really done to prove a point
Some of the properties that i have seen in the last few days have even suprised me.................

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29 May 2008 11:57 AM by morerosado Star rating. 6927 posts Send private message

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Your 1,000th post here Georgia. Well done.



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29 May 2008 12:37 PM by georgia Star rating in Algorfa (As seen on .... 1835 posts Send private message

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oh yeah, blimey,still a little behind you though,and an extra star!,just like Mcdonalds!!

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29 May 2008 2:33 PM by san miguel Star rating. 288 posts Send private message

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What a great thread, facts, heartfelt personal experiences and excellent overviews.

We bought two years ago, at a price I was happy with. No wish to sell at the present time and enjoying our 'double life' in Spain and UK.

Yes, it was scary buying into a different country, and having to become realistic about cost of living, property prices, crime, and the fact that it's not sunny all the time (although it is when we are out there!) But we accept all that in the UK so why have such unrealistic expectations of Spain?

Just like the UK we have high hopes of the house prices rising in Spain over a 5-10 year period so we can sit back and enjoy the life we have worked so hard for.

Brian      

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29 May 2008 2:37 PM by chelseadel Star rating in Welling kent & Las .... 155 posts Send private message

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I agree georgia I had a meeting with a bank manager of a Spanish bank in London a couple of weeks ago and he had a list as long as your arm of repossessed property, thousands of euro lower than the sale price.


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29 May 2008 4:40 PM by rowlandsbb Star rating in Gloucestershire &Hue.... 779 posts Send private message

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Tend to agree with San Miguel....long term in most locations and with a decent spec everything should be OK

I have been in business during the last 3 major property recessions and on average it seems to take 2 years for the market ' to start' moving again
So that takes us to 2010 
So if you are a life style buyer then provided you hold I suspect that you will look back in say 8/10 years and think you have made a good buy...even if you buy now
ar a reasonable price.....not all developers are forced sellers!!

But make sure that you maintain your property and that the community is well run

Provided the western economies recover [ which they always do as there are a lot of vested interests at stake] the demand for the Spanish Costa's will just keep on growing
As more and more of the EU get more and more wealth , then there will be more and more who want Spain 
Then there are the emerging economies of EU

So over the next 2 years or so there will be some sorting out to do and some distressed sales Some builders will not survive 

Very soon I think we will hear about problems in Bulgaria etc Egypt Dubai and other countries where people have [ would you beleive it!!] taken more risks than in Spain

Some developments will be mothballed to be restarted later and the well financed developers [ and some dealers] will cherry pick  in the market and do very well , thank you 
This activity will itself be part of the initial stages of the recovery

So if you can hold on.....do so......... and only sell if you really have to



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29 May 2008 8:16 PM by bobaol Star rating. 2253 posts Send private message

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The sad thing is, Georgia, those homes at those prices probably mean the end of someones dream.  They probably paid more for the houses than they are getting for them or, simply, could no longer afford the payments on them due to reasons like not being able to find work or simply the pound dropping so much against the euro.  Yes, that Euromarina house for nearly 60 K less than they are being sold new (add on security grilles, aircon, lighting, garden paving etc etc) probably means someone is 100 k out of pocket and has had to move back for some reason or other.  One couple on my new urb bought last year.  The wife died 3 months after moving across to Spain and now he wants to go back to UK but can't get anyone to buy at 50K less than he paid for it.
As I said, sad really.  However, all the new (off plan) properties have been sold with people moving in now (3rd phase) or in 18months to 2 years time (Phase 4 and 5).  Not one of the people buying new were even offered a resale (or told they existed) by the agents selling the property.  Just imagine buying a new house off plan for around 200,000 euros and then finding the exact property on the same site with aircon, gardens paved, grilles fitted, alarms fitted, tv installed etc for 50,000 less!  Maybe if some of the agents weren't so keen on whacking on the huge commission rates (I've heard as much as 18% with 12 and 13% being quoted as the norm) property prices may not be higher now in these areas than they are in UK!  No wonder people have stopped buying.  Overvalued, poorly built properties lose a lot of appeal when it costs more to buy one than you will get for your house in UK.  Even the weather there appears to be getting more Britiified. 



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29 May 2008 9:18 PM by georgia Star rating in Algorfa (As seen on .... 1835 posts Send private message

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Hi Bobaol,
I agree,it always is a sad state of affairs when a house falls into the hands of the bank,if you are on the receiving end it can be a bitter blow,although if you are someone looking to take advantageit can be very rewarding,this has happened throughout history across the board,so nothing new there.
Its all about Ying and Yang.
The large agents always hit buyers with large commissions and those that are still around continue to do so,the steady stream of clients meant this was easy pickings,add their promises to people who wanted to hear them and you will always get a percentage of properties come back to the market.
The thing that i disagree with is the weather becoming Britified???? It is a glorious 27 degrees today,i was invited to a friends birthday bash in the UK this weekend,it was an outside do and i have just received a text to say cancelled due to forecast of torrential rain.......................
ahhh,Spain,the land where you CAN plan a barbecue.......
Regards
Georgia

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29 May 2008 9:39 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

There is a saying in the stock market, "don't catch a falling knife" and "bottom picking is a nasty business". These sayings are best taken heed of. I know lots of people who were greedly buying up UK banks recently cos they were 30% off their highs and a "bargain". Unfortunately for these people these banks have dropped another 30% and there is still no bottom in sight.

People forget but property is like any other market or commodity, it tends to have a huge momentum of its own and a bit like a supertanker it takes many miles to slow down, let alone turn around, thats why the market kept going up despite all the doom merchants and the negative press. But like a tanker or a roller coaster once it turns it gains momentum in the opposite direction. Anyone silly enough to get in its way is likely to be crushed without recognition.

Property cycles tend to last a minimum of 10 yrs so its likely that it will be 5yrs from now that the market will even think of turning up. Just as prices got too high, much too  high, prices are likely to overshoot on teh downside and get much too cheap. Many many a time have I looked at stock prices in amazement in a big sell off, just wishing that I wasn't already so committed, not quite believing the prices. However simple logic tells you that its the same for everyone else, the bargains are there simply because no one has any money to buy them, everyone has already shot their bolt.

There will be blood in the streets before this is over in Spain. The pyschology of markets is well studied and goes through different well defined stages. A while back we reached the top which was characterised by "exuberance", where there is such confidence that the market will go higher people panic buy and lose all sense of reality when it comes to priceing or quality of choice. This was very clearly evidenced in Spain, this message board sadly is chock a block with real life examples, and the owners for sale section is a grim reminder of what people bought.

The current stage is denial, which comes after the top, and is a period when people begin to realise the awful truth, but hold out for "better times just around the corner" and blame the market or agent because their property won't sell. Property is not priced realistically and people still are miffed that their apartment is not worth X thousands that it was supposedly a few months/years back. Asking prices don't fall much, but selling prices are perhaps 20% below the ask.

We are rapidly moving into the anger/acceptance stage where people realise thay have been really silly and infact the press is right when it calls doom and gloom. People then tend to look around to blame someone else. People that can't sell hang on in the vain hope that things will mysteriously get better.

Finally there comes the depression stage, where people are so sick of the worrry of owning a pile of bricks that they would love dearly to see the back of, they give in and dump the property at any price, jsut to get rid of it.

THis is the blood stage and is called a capitulation. Already incredibly depressed prices suddenly drop another huge heart stopping plunge. The only buyers are now people who have seen this sort of thing before, prices are unbelievable, far less than construction, but there is so mcuh on offer and so few people with the neccesary finance. All of the speculation and excess money and debt gets washed out of the system and the bottoming and repair process can begin.

There has been a lot said about distreessed prices and bargain prices. However with such a long bull market in property its easy to get mislead about what is a bargain price. A 50% reduction might seem like a giveway, but some prices were so ridiculous its still not a bargain in realiity.

Its useful then to have a non emotional yardstick to measure value by and the best and time tested way to do this is rental yield. Take the place I'm renting currently. The rent is a rather generous ( abit high) 650 euros a month. A year this is 7800. The owners think its currently worth around 250K, its a three bedroom town house in the CT.Just on an interest only basis and ignoring all costs (in relaity perhaps 20% on the asking price and set up costs) it would cost me 12500 euros a year to "rent" it from the bank. On top of that I would have maintenance costs etc. Looking at it another way the gross yield to the owner is around 3%, nett perhaps 2%. 

Conclusion - Professional investors and property funds are looking for a min yield of atleast double this, perhaps a lot more. Historically sensible yields are in the 8 to 12 percent range. The only time it makes sense to ignore this is when property is riseing quickly in price, but then you need to know when to head for the door.

By thsi measure property around me in the CT is still 50% overvalued, despite the claims by desperate agents of "bargains". This is the sort of advice that people should have been learning on those so called "investor courses". However the courses by nature were mostly a vehicle jsut to sell property, and if they would have mentioned this important benchmark, then they would have had to advise clienst to stop buying property about 5 years ago.

My advice to anyone with a property they have to selll is to move out of denial, accept the mistake and chalk it up to experience. Everyone in property or stock investing makes mistakes. Get realistic on priceing and marketing. Stop thinking about past prices it might have sold at, or about breaking even. If you paid too much its hardly the new owners responsibility to pay that much to you. Calculate how much another year of paying the finance will cost you and knock that off the price. Ask the agent what price he/she can really shift it at.

If you want to or can tough it out. be realistic and plan for the worst. Another five years should do it.

Finanly to anyone thinking of buying, rent for 6 months and think again. Don't buy until its atleast as cheap as renting. It will get there and past it trust me on this one. And GOOD LUCK to everyone selling .


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30 May 2008 8:58 AM by georgia Star rating in Algorfa (As seen on .... 1835 posts Send private message

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Hi Tj,
A very good post and i agree with the majority of it 
As an investor you do have to make difficult decisions,some you win some you lose and its the realisation of this from day one is what makes you an investor.
On the other hand i disagree totally with the fact that you state nobody has any money being the reason that the market will drop significantly.
I have just spent the last couple of weeks with investors looking to buy up bank stock,some very wealthy,shrewd and succesful guys and very very good at what they do.
I think you do tend to concentrate on one area on the whole and can get caught out by the highly inflated prices of the CDS,you state that the apartment you are in would be worth(in the owners eyes)approx 250k,on the CB you could get a very nice detached villa with pool for that so if you head to a different area where prices were maybe not so inflated you could see a natural price correction,obviously if the prices were not inflated ridiculously then the fall will be less aparrent.
I totally agree with the fact that there will be a lot of investors who draw a line under their property and move on,that is part of the game and what they may lose here they may have made somewhere else,the good thing about this is it may give someone who wants to come here for the right reasons a chance to get a property at a better price.
Who knows where the bottom or even the top of the market is and over what period it will recover or fall?
For people moving over here to retire i find that they have a set amount of money to spend on property and a set amount to keep in the bank to give them a quality of life they deserve,if they can get the house they want within this then who is to say that they are wrong,do they wait another 5 years untill they think the prices are right? or do they do it and enjoy as much as they can while they can,its a life gain rather than financial.
I know we have differing views on property as we work within different markets,my job is not predominantly about financial gain although it is nice to get a good deal its about the quality of life it brings.
I was turned onto Spain by my dad who was always going to retire he when he left work,he absolutely loved the country and everything about it,the year before he was due to retire and come here he got terminal cancer and was dead within 9 months,he would have given every penny he had to have the last few days in the place he wanted to be,he was a man that did well on the stock market but he knew a greater value to life,i learned a very valuable lesson from him.....................
Regards
Georgia


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30 May 2008 9:46 AM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Georgia

Good post. But we have had this conversation about buying before. Your statement seems to infer that inorder to come to Spain and enjoy all the many great things that Spain has to offer, weather, lifestyle etc, means you have to buy property. Nothing could be further form the truth. I have been here since Sept07 and fortunately haven't bought a single brick! During that time I have lived in two seperate really lovely houses, both beautifully furnished, that I just had to move my family into and start paying rent. It has laso given me the flexibility to decide what sort of house we really want and to decide which part of Spain we want to live in, if atall.

Speculators aside, it still doesn't make any sense for most people to buy in Spain at the moment regardless of their reasons for moving here. Life is so uncertain and nothing more so that moving to a new country like Spain. Even in the very unlikely event that someone moves here and really is suited to living exactly where they rock up for the foreseable future, how likely is it that they, new to the country buy the right house, in the right area. Whats te betting that most people who buy here, subsequently find that they would rather have bought something else, somewhere else, or not bought atall.

For poeple who have to earn a living, Spain is a teriribly uncertain place at the mo amd likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. The one source of decent income has dried up, not to return for 5 years or more. How many people are there who have found that they love Spain but simply can't make ends meet. Bad enough that they have to leave, but much worse when they find they can't sell their house without taking a 50% hit.

For people who have retired, how many find for example that through ill health or family committments they are despite loving Spain, forced to go back home. Same scenario when trying to sell their house.

The fact is that a liquid market in most parts of Spain has simply disapeared. I would not want o buy nay house anywhere at the moment and then try and get my money back. That itself tells you what kind of market we are in.

I am sorry to hear the tale about your Dad, I too lost my Dad early in life, but feel he is watching over me! I feel sure your dad is doing the same.

Best regards Georgia

Tim


This message was last edited by TJ222 on 5/30/2008.

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