If Spain did reintroduce the peseta...

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01 Apr 2012 00:00 by Orinoco Star rating in Castilla La Mancha. 141 posts Send private message

Orinoco´s avatar

I often think it's strange that there isn't a political party here, left or right, that is even considering the option of bailing out of the EZ. (Correct me if I'm wrong).

The effects of being tied to a single currency are only too evident in the uncompleted housing developments littering the peninsular. I read yesterday that if Spanish banks and cajas took a real mark to market of their property portfolios they'd be 100 billion in the red. 100 BILLION! When Spain needed a rise in interest rates to slow the housing bubble it was neglected in favour of the German and French economy. Germany now has the lowest level of unemployment since reunification - Spain's unemployment however is off the chart.

100 Billion - That's an insane figure. The concensus is that banks are operating as bankrupt entities, the only thing that is avoiding their complete collapse is the fact that on paper, a property worth 300,000€ 5 years ago is still listed as being worth 300,000€ today, which of course is absurd.

What would be the real effects be of a return to the peseta?

In my opinion tourism would leap - suddenly a beer would cost 40 pence instead of almost a pound for the UK tourist. Hotels would fill up.

Companies exporting would see profits increase (of course those importing would be stuffed!)

Brits on a UK pension (Yes JohnZX - I'm thinking of you!) would see a tremendous increase in spending power.

Spain has been a net recipient of EU funding for decades, it has done tremendously well out of the EU - but where's this all heading?

51% youth unemployment - and those are the official figures!

Why is no-one advocating a return to the Peseta? What am I missing?

PS I understand euro denominated debt (ie, money borrowed in euros by the spanish gov) could double / triple with a massive devaluation.

 

 





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01 Apr 2012 20:40 by in_the_sun Star rating in Riveria Del Sol. 34 posts Send private message

 

 Totally Agree !

Only way spain will draw tourists back (which is the main income for spain) is to be cheaper ! only way that will happen is to de value and they can not do that in the euro !

 Who ever thought a single currency inside a mixture of countrys ie Germany , France who are manufacturing countries and countries like spain , greece , portugal who are tourist resorts needs to be hung drawn and shot just to be safe ! Totally different economies can not have a currency worth the same !! COMMON SENSE I think , but this could be Germanys pay back for the war and them taking it over

 



This message was last edited by in_the_sun on 01/04/2012.



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01 Apr 2012 21:12 by stillgoin Star rating. 161 posts Send private message

 anyone remember the flanders and swan song

german german overalls?





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01 Apr 2012 21:16 by in_the_sun Star rating in Riveria Del Sol. 34 posts Send private message

no i dont , dont think im old enough :-"

but i do remember a certain german euro mp saying "they will do as we tell them " talking about greece





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01 Apr 2012 21:31 by Orinoco Star rating in Castilla La Mancha. 141 posts Send private message

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Curious case the Germans, they have a super fear of hyper inflation, their courts are already questioning the legitimacy of "bailouts". Not sure to what extent they will stomach the inevitable 3rd Greek bailout, not to mention Portugal on the verge of asking for further assistance.

Then there's Spain.

We really do live in interesting times. I'm just grateful my Dad nor I had to face armed conflict due to political incompetence. 

I wish I could be sure my own kids won't have to face the backlash of this social experiment.





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01 Apr 2012 21:37 by in_the_sun Star rating in Riveria Del Sol. 34 posts Send private message

all i know is 60% of europe being in debt to germany is far worse than the 5am towels on the sun loungers which used to be the old german way of taking europe over





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01 Apr 2012 21:52 by mariadecastro Star rating in Algeciras (Cadiz). 9328 posts Send private message

Legal Questions? Speak to Maria Direct

 Politically incorrect as it might be I do think that Spain would do very well with the peseta back again.

We need to know who we are, and be who are, not what others are interested of us to be.



_______________________

Maria L. de Castro, JD, MA

Lawyer

Director www.costaluzlawyers.es

El blog de Maria



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01 Apr 2012 21:58 by in_the_sun Star rating in Riveria Del Sol. 34 posts Send private message

I also know there has to be a reason for shops still pricing in pesatas , and if the goverment was set on keeping the euro they would of made it illegal same as england when they banned the sale of goods being in pounds and ounces

I think spain was hoping to get as much out of the euro as they could ie grants for roads and air ports fast rail service and so on , but are waiting to actually see what happens if a country drops out which greece will ! as its all of a bit of an unknown , what actually happens do germany grab greek assets or do they get black listed etc





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01 Apr 2012 21:59 by Orinoco Star rating in Castilla La Mancha. 141 posts Send private message

Orinoco´s avatar

I think your average German feels like your average Brit right now - why oh why is all this money going into the blackhole that is the EU.

It's a result of career politicians. Brussels is peopled with Sprouts that are so out of touch with reality, that have no idea what is going on in the real world, that they're now just focussing on their own well-being.

In the UK, Nigel Farage is the exception to that. There's a man who isn't afraid to tell it like it is. His speeches are a breath of fresh air in a continent dominated with this socialist agenda of more and more and more integration. No-one wants it!

Look at Iceland, they defaulted on their debts, they reorganised, and now they're back on track. A year or two of pain but they've got their house back in order.

An exit from the euro wouldn't result in armageddon, ignore Barroso (Maoist) and his ilk. 

Spain really could go it alone, I'm just surprised no-one in the Spanish political arena is calling for it.

Enjoy this - Nige, telling it like it is!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gm9q8uabTs





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01 Apr 2012 22:05 by in_the_sun Star rating in Riveria Del Sol. 34 posts Send private message

I am sure all polliticians loose sence of relaity when they get voted in full stop ! every country should be run as "normal" people run a house , if your income drops you lower your out goings , you do not borrow for today which you can not pay back tomorrow , also the amount of politicians who blame the "goverment " for faults when actually the problem was caused by them when they was in power , labour do it to the current uk goverment , spain does it every one seems to do it ! do they think that mr and mrs normal are that thick we beleive it ? END OF RANT





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01 Apr 2012 22:35 by Orinoco Star rating in Castilla La Mancha. 141 posts Send private message

Orinoco´s avatar

There are still good men out there...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNKH1MF3qQk&feature=related

 

Harsh perhaps, but fair.

 





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02 Apr 2012 09:05 by D_B_S Star rating. 178 posts Send private message

A lot of this thread has been viewed from the retiree or from the view point of a visitor who drinks cheap beer.

What about the Spanish?

So Spain exits the Euro moves to a new currency and devalues _ the only reason to move from the euro. Say the devaluation is 20% probably not worth devaluting by less. Immediately, since the money owed is in Euros, Debit increases by 20%, that is National and Private. The mortages of the Spanish family or an expat for that matter increases by 20% including the rate at which it is to be repayed. How many people can afford an increase in repayments of 20% especially when devaluation will hit the directly with 20% spending power in their pocket. Oil will increase by 20% - priced in USD - and all those businesses would need to increase their prices to cover the increase in their loans again in Euros USD or Sterling.

It's not easy to move out of the Euro there are consequences which only the brave wouldl consider.

David


 



This message was last edited by D_B_S on 02/04/2012.

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02 Apr 2012 20:43 by in_the_sun Star rating in Riveria Del Sol. 34 posts Send private message

No one is saying it would be easy , but spain can not afford the payments now never mind in 2 yrs after another few 100 billion has been lent to it , devaluing would affect all imports and the people who wanted to move the money out of spain , the rest of house owners would be affected but not in a major way long term !

 No one actually knows what would happen if spain or greece or portugal or even italy drops out , theres lots of examples ie would the country actually have to pay the loan/debt back ? example say greece says it does not want the next bail out and the eu kicks it out of europe because of its fiscal statues well greece could argue the eu parliment caused the problem and forced the debt , or if the country went banrupt would it be the same as company bankrupcy ie 1 penny in a pound paid back as they had no assests , the eu can not go and grab the country even though germany probably would like to 

as i said before if greece drops out and survives which it will , as countrys after world war 1 and 2 went bankrupt basicly and all recovered , look at germany !! they was bankrupt after the war all debts where wiped and look how well they recovered ! then you watch spain follow if it didnt it would be mad ! to pay any debt back it has to have a positive cash flow and when spain is in the euro it will always be a neg cash flow ! unless the pound suddenly gets back to 1.65 euros to the pound , the british will spend less when they are here , less brits will come here and the russians are suffering now and so are the chineese so that will aftect spain as well

 





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03 Apr 2012 10:32 by guslopez Star rating in Lorca, Murcia.. 745 posts Send private message

in_the_sun

" I also know there has to be a reason for shops still pricing in pesatas , and if the goverment was set on keeping the euro they would of made it illegal same as england when they banned the sale of goods being in pounds and ounces "

 

It is illegal . Allowed to be dual-priced for the first two years , then euros only . Some places still price in both , it helps the older people & others have stock that has been there from before the changeover !!



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Todos somos Lorca.




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03 Apr 2012 12:08 by noddy Star rating. 150 posts Send private message

Historically a "union" of countries doesnt work.

Thats why the soviet union is now Russia and a dozen other countries all with independent fiscal control.

Take Yugoslavia, all the separate countries...croatia, slovenia etc are better off.

The only beneficiary to the single currency is Germany. fact

I dont think any country would have the balls to break away unless forced, if it did happen ( personally i don think it will...not in the short term anyway), Any country would be worse off in the short term for a couple of years, probably badly. but would benefit long term.

All hypothetical, I think

Nick





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07 Apr 2012 09:32 by midasgold Star rating in Mijas.. 91 posts Send private message

We are in the "calm before the storm " position at this moment.

Spain WILL exit the euro - it has no other choice, as it will be unable

 EVER to balance it's books using the euro. 

The politicians are  not able to be honest with us. Germany has

been printing the NEW  d.Mark for the past year.

 

 



_______________________
If lucky, there is another day.



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07 Apr 2012 10:35 by jontymellor Star rating in Warrington & Cabo R.... 144 posts Send private message

My knowledge on currency exchange is: you owe 100 euros,  I try and pay it in pounds or pasatos, at what ever rate it is at the time, and that is why the retreat from the euro would work, the reason many banks took a hit on greeces debt, as here currency would have gone to nothing on the curency exchange rate.

So if the pesato is worth 20% les, the debt is 20% less, the banks or loan holders would not be happy and would not lend any more, but thats my understanding, and all euro notes with the spaanish letter on it would be workth 20% less.

The other side is all prices or internal euro debt would be 20% less, those with euros mortgages would be best off, those with euros in the bank would be worst off.



_______________________
I Live in Warrington & Cabo Roig



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07 Apr 2012 10:40 by Pixie Star rating. 1 posts Send private message

Would going back to the peseta mean that mortgage interest rates would got up? I have a large(ish) Euribor-linked mortgage which has been stuck at 3%  for a long time - and very welcome it is too given the crackdown by the authorities on renting to tourists (which I intended would fund the mortgage repayments). If the rate did increase substantially I suspect that the current high rate of repossessions would turn into an avalanche.





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07 Apr 2012 10:41 by lacanau Star rating. 7 posts Send private message

Hi, I've always advocated a single currency for each currency is the best way to control any economy as it allows the country the option to de/revalue as necessary or adjust interest rates to help their own individual economies, thus getting them out of the brown sticky stuff when necessary. To work with a single currency such as the euro requires all the countries to be at a similar economic level or never-ending support  without limit from the stronger countries. With a weak global economy as at present there are more weak countries than there are strong. Having said all this with the current levels of debt in the weaker countries is it too late to revert to individual currencies without a lot of support from the stronger countries, possibly by way of loan guarantees etc.. 

There are a lot of things to be considered before a decision could be made before Spain could revert to the peseta.

The question is would the individual countries be capable of digging their way out of their current economic situation if they go it alone? I think the measures that would be necessary to do this could create more unemployment, spending cuts etc. than people would be prepared to accept.

Regards, Duncan





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07 Apr 2012 11:18 by Solysombra Star rating. 1 posts Send private message

 Best idea I've heard in a long time. Tying everyone's hands by wrapping them up in one currency has proven to be disastrous. Time for a U-turn!





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