Catalonia Indepence Referendum

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06 Oct 2014 12:48 PM by Mickyfinn Star rating in Spain and France. 1840 posts Send private message

The debate between Spain and Catalonia over the independence issue has the potential to be severly damaging to the already weakened Spanish economy. According to Bloomberg Spains bond rates have risen in recent days as a direct concequence.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-05/catalan-standoff-to-hit-spain-economy-whoever-wins-euro-credit.html

Let us speculate for one moment the future of Catalonia if in the unlikely event the independence referendum is tolerated without intervention from Rajoy. The separatists might actually win.
 
That will bring them into direct confrontation with the rightist Rajoy and a considerable faction of the Spanish people who oppose independence.
 
The fact that a court in Madrid has declared the referendum illegal will mean little in Catalonia. Accept to give Rajoy a legal pretext to send in his army and tanks to occupy Barcelona. He will believe he has the support of the rest of Spain and the militarist old guard who have never really gone away.
 
This issue has the potential to divide Spain every bit as much as the civil war did in the thirties. I see some ominous parallels. A democratic government overthrown by military force from a rightist elite .
 
The attitude and behaviour of Rajoy’s government towards the people of Gibraltar is a clue to his intentions. Catatonia should not be under any illusion military force is waiting in the wings when all attempts at mediation fail. Rajoy will simply not allow Catalonia to break away from Spain at any price. To Spain it's unthinkable as well as catastrophic to their economy. Catalonia contributes twice as much to Madrid as Scotland does to Westminster.
 
If Rajoy thought he could take and occupy Gibraltar without a war with the British he would do it. No other state will defend Catalonia in the event he takes military action and takes over Catalonia, so he holds an effective free hand.
 


This message was last edited by Mickyfinn on 06/10/2014.

_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn Time is the fire in which we burn. Delmore Schwartz.



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06 Oct 2014 4:14 PM by scambuster Star rating. 144 posts Send private message

A very good post Mickyfinn, the Catalonians are fired up now to follow the Scottish attempt and is a much richer area I believe, and personally I think they would make a good separate State. Rajoy who has avoided his own and his Party's accusations of fraud so far would be advised not to push Catalonia too far for fear more of his dodgy dealings are broadcast to the world. I would not be surprised to see Rajoy and cronies use force on this region but unrest will surely come at some stage.

Micky you should post more often, you talk a lot of good sense, unlike some on other sites. wink





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06 Oct 2014 4:15 PM by casperruby Star rating. 165 posts Send private message

Hells bells ! Haven't we got enough strife in the world what with iSIS and the like to have this sort of thing as well countries need to pull together not split apart. The very thought of tanks on the streets of spain makes me shudder and its in the life time of most in spain when they were run under a dictatorship. Strife between ourselves will only give terrorists the fuel they need





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06 Oct 2014 4:44 PM by Mickyfinn Star rating in Spain and France. 1840 posts Send private message

The essential problem casperuby is Catalonians feel they contribute more to the Spanish state than almost any other region yet receive little recognition for their desire for self-determination in Madrid. Spain as a whole sucks up the wealth the region creates depriving it of its own development resources.

Spain is a democracy and that means governments only rule with the consent of the people. Devolved regions must and should have more control over their future. Government from the centre has had its day.

Historically Catalonia was always separate from Spain anyway. Language and culture are distinct and different.

It’s a nonsense and confrontational not even to allow a vote on self-determination. It plays into the hands of the nationalists who do use this issue for furtherance of their own careers.

David Cameron was brave enough to risk a referendum on Scotland because the UK is a mature democracy and the British trust the people to make the right decisions which directly affect them. He has now seen the nationalists off for a generation.

Rajoy should be big enough and smart enough to risk the same. If he fails this test and reverts to Putin like violence he is neither  a statesman worthy of the name or a very savvy politician.



_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn Time is the fire in which we burn. Delmore Schwartz.



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06 Oct 2014 5:05 PM by casperruby Star rating. 165 posts Send private message

I would not disagree with any of your comments but can they not go down the devo max route or is the government afraid of that as well, perhapsvim being simplistic but spains only been democratic for a few hours in deference to the uk etc. I suppose if they could have a government that sorted out corruption and very bad public service maybevtge separatist would capitulate and get on with living a life without strife. But I do agree they shoukd get more out of the pot





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07 Oct 2014 8:00 AM by Tadd1966 Star rating in Los Montesinos. 1755 posts Send private message

You could say the catalans are being very selfish in as many other large cities such as London who contribute more than any other region but what is wrong with sharing.

If the catalanas did go for independence I wonder what would happen to their economoy and how many businesses would pull out of teh region, what about EU membership many states would refuse them entry, woudl they keep teh euro  - I think they will suffer especially as the world has changed and as I have said many times we are better off together and supporting those who need help - we do not have enough fair wealth distribution as it is so I hope this never happens

What about their footbal teams I hope they would be kicked out of La Liga, no Champions league etc and a Catalan Legaue would simply not give them enough and the players would leave - again a huge hit on the economy

 

Far too many un ansewred questions and anyone making a vote based of stupid loyalty to a flag, history and media is quite simply a vitcim of brainwashing



_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”



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07 Oct 2014 8:27 AM by Tadd1966 Star rating in Los Montesinos. 1755 posts Send private message

You could say the catalans are being very selfish in as many other large cities such as London who contribute more than any other region but what is wrong with sharing.

If the catalanas did go for independence I wonder what would happen to their economoy and how many businesses would pull out of teh region, what about EU membership many states would refuse them entry, woudl they keep teh euro  - I think they will suffer especially as the world has changed and as I have said many times we are better off together and supporting those who need help - we do not have enough fair wealth distribution as it is so I hope this never happens

What about their footbal teams I hope they would be kicked out of La Liga, no Champions league etc and a Catalan Legaue would simply not give them enough and the players would leave - again a huge hit on the economy

 

Far too many un ansewred questions and anyone making a vote based of stupid loyalty to a flag, history and media is quite simply a vitcim of brainwashing



_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”



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07 Oct 2014 8:59 AM by Mickyfinn Star rating in Spain and France. 1840 posts Send private message

I may agree with some of those points Tadd, I'm not sympathetic to nationalism. However the real issue is allowing the Catalans to express their democratic choice. They are denied that by the Spanish constitution and the courts. That is wrong and unjust in a democracy.



_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn Time is the fire in which we burn. Delmore Schwartz.



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07 Oct 2014 1:36 PM by Tadd1966 Star rating in Los Montesinos. 1755 posts Send private message

mickeyfinn

fair point but if every region, state, county, city, town, village did this we would be in a huge mess. 

an interesting link showing a 42billion € debt to the EU for the catalonina govt.

http://www.debatingeurope.eu/focus/independence-catalonia/

Also wiki summary - lots of history

 

The Catalan independence movement or the Catalan separatist movement (Catalan: independentisme català)[a] is a political movement, derived from Catalan nationalism, which supports the independence of Catalonia or the Catalan countries from Spain and France. As a coastal territory of the Crown of Aragon, Catalonia has shared the monarch with the rest of Spain since the latter part of the 15th century, when Spain was born from the union[1] of the Crown of Aragon and the Crown of Castile. However, the Crown of Aragon lost distinctive rules, institutions and laws at the end of the War of Spanish Succession in 1714, when Philip V of Spain issued the Nueva Planta decrees, a centralized Spanish rule. Support for Catalan independence is based on the thesis from the 19th century that Catalonia is a nation, derived from contemporary political and cultural ideology based on the history of Catalonia, the Catalan language and Catalan traditions.[2][3]



_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”



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07 Oct 2014 3:33 PM by Mickyfinn Star rating in Spain and France. 1840 posts Send private message

Well in theory at least every election time, local and national the people do just that. In Catalonia the separatists have a large share of the popular vote.

The will of the people is clear. In the regional elections on 25 November 2012, parties supporting Catalonia's right to self-determination won 107 of the 135 seats. Polls show that 75% of the  Catalan people have given a clear mandate to their representatives to move forward with the self-determination agenda.

There can be no doubt the Catalans desire for a referendum is without question just and desirable for Spain's future stability. That does not mean they will vote for a separate nation. Scotland is an example. The SNP enjoyed good returns to the parliament in elections but when it came down to the wire the people, sensibly in my view, walked away from separation.

That strengthens democracy and the future cohesion of the UK. Spain needs to recognise that fact. and have the political courage to allow the same.



_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn Time is the fire in which we burn. Delmore Schwartz.



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