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Spain statistics

I like statistics and financial data, so I will be posting a variety of information that I hope will be equally useful to others, even though perhaps not as exciting...

British pound rises 2.5% in a day versus Euro
18 April 2017

First things first, I would like to repeat that this is not a political speculation blog :-) However, the effects of political decisions, alongside a myriad other types of effects, do manifest themselves in currency markets - the biggest financial sector on earth. So further to my previous post on Brexit effects  , I am displaying here today's updated GBP vs EUR graph:

GBP to EUR

The green area is the change since the aforementioned blog post on the 13th of March where I stated that the area of 1.10 appears to be potentially strong support and where all the bad news had been absorbed. As it turns out the pound has bounced at that level around mid-March and has surged today to 9% higher than then. It is now sitting above its 200-day average which is normally consider as a long-term support in the financial world.

As an estate agent in Spain, I consider these to be very good news, regardless of the reason for the rise of GBP. It remains to be seen if this will translate in more interest from British buyers - I will be watching the statistics coming out of INE closely.

The point of this post is actually to put my neck out once again and state that I do not believe the British pound will have too much upside. If you were considering transferring money and the exchange rate was one of the factors delaying you, then perhaps you will want to take this opportunity to re-evaluate. Until 2018 I personally do not believe that any clear direction will develop, beyond what has already been traced. I base this on the clear commitment by the Bank of England to "print" what is required to counter-balance any strengthening of the pound, that might cause exports to drop more than what is expected as an effect of Brexit. And strong moves like today will force their hand.

In conclusion, my personal opinion as a blogger is that as far as the GBP/EUR exchange rate goes bear in mind that the high level might be very close. I will admit being wrong without hesitation if I need to! :-)

Thanks for reading.



Like 0        Published at 19:41   Comments (2)


Fair price for property on the Costa del Sol - a basic reference
03 April 2017

Taking a break from Brexit related posts, here is a purely Costa del Sol property related subject: by how much do property prices per metre squared vary in a certain location? We all expect euros/m2 to vary between Marbella and San Pedro for example, but how about within San Pedro itself? This question came up when we compared euros/m2 paid by clients along the coast and we realised that some areas had massive variations, and others very close to 0 differences. So check your area of interest below to see if it might be possible to get a better deal for the same square metreage.

Let's look at an example with a graph. The image and datatable below show values for apartment prices per m2. Around the 50% mark we find:

Location: San Pedro de Alcantara

Minimum price pre m2: 1536 euros

Range: 50.7% - i.e. you might find properties with anywhere between 1,536 euros/m2 and 50% higher (3,118 euros/m2)

This might present the property buyer with some opportunities. But first the data:

Percentage variation of prices per m2 for Costa del Sol apartments

Location Minimum Maximum Difference % variation
Reserva de Marbella 1639 1837 198 10.8
Bahia de Marbella 3318 3854 536 13.9
Los Arqueros 2584 3030 446 14.7
Selwo 1517 1912 394 20.6
Calahonda 1816 2386 570 23.9
Benalmadena 1870 2482 612 24.7
Mijas 1458 1962 504 25.7
Elviria 2183 2974 791 26.6
Malaga Centro 2212 3280 1068 32.6
Fuengirola 2255 3524 1269 36.0
Puerto Banus 4367 6968 2601 37.3
Mijas Golf 1804 3022 1218 40.3
Cabopino 2435 4240 1805 42.6
Torremolinos 1980 3639 1660 45.6
Nueva Andalucia 2601 4793 2192 45.7
Malaga 1504 2958 1455 49.2
San Pedro de Alcantara 1536 3118 1582 50.7
La Alcaidesa 1735 3725 1990 53.4
San Luis de Sabinillas 856 1885 1029 54.6
Marbella 3299 7532 4233 56.2
La Duquesa 1629 3935 2306 58.6
Sotogrande Costa 1377 3565 2188 61.4
Guadalmina Baja 1564 4209 2645 62.8
Estepona 1300 4772 3472 72.8
La Quinta 1791 126559 124768 98.6
Alameda 2035 617284 615249 99.7

As you can see, for areas that are relatively small or from a handful of developers, such as Bahia de Marbella, Los Arqueros etc, the percentage variation is small, i.e. any apartment will cost as any other, the main variable being the built area - prices per square metre are very similar. What was unexpected, at least for us, is the fact that large diverse areas like Calahonda or Benalmadena also have narrow price/m2 ranges. This indicates to us that there is high competition, sellers cannot get away with setting a higher-than-average price, so as a buyer you might expect to get a "fairer" price for your property.

In contrast, equally surprisingly, we have compact areas like Sabinillas or Sotogrande with upto 60+% difference in cost per m2. As a buyer in these areas, you might be advised to shop around because it is quite possible to find a very similar property upto 60% cheaper, in the extreme cases.

(Notice that I left out of the discussion the lower and higher data points because they seem like ouliers)

For villas the data is as follows:

Price variation per square metre for Costa del Sol villas

Location Minimum Maximum Difference % variation
Alhaurin Golf 2230 2517 287 11.4
La Alcaidesa 2056 2648 592 22.4
Bahia de Marbella 3902 5200 1298 25.0
La Linea 1221 1798 577 32.1
Calahonda 2100 3333 1234 37.0
Casares Playa 1714 2987 1273 42.6
Valle Romano 1387 2453 1066 43.4
Bel Air 1775 3213 1437 44.7
Arroyo de la Miel 1777 3375 1598 47.3
Cancelada 2797 5391 2594 48.1
Nueva Andalucia 3200 6240 3040 48.7
La Duquesa 1471 2937 1467 49.9
Guadalmina Alta 1750 3568 1818 50.9
Los Arqueros 2392 5018 2626 52.3
Benahavis 2176 4639 2462 53.1
Cabopino 2483 5384 2901 53.9
El Madronal 2872 6333 3461 54.6
Benalmadena 1622 3769 2147 57.0
Los Monteros 4018 10040 6022 60.0
Selwo 1410 3583 2173 60.6
Elviria 2205 5638 3433 60.9
Monda 1000 2750 1750 63.6
San Luis de Sabinillas 934 2600 1666 64.1
New Golden Mile 1991 5827 3835 65.8
San Pedro de Alcantara 2230 6858 4628 67.5
Puerto Banus 3542 10972 7431 67.7
Sotogrande Costa 1495 4967 3472 69.9
El Paraiso 3037 11964 8926 74.6
Torremolinos 825 3661 2836 77.5
Estepona 1582 7515 5934 79.0
Fuengirola 1197 5993 4797 80.0
La Zagaleta 3277 18125 14848 81.9
Marbella 1700 25848 24148 93.4
Malaga 1729 82529 80800 97.9
Torrenueva 2244 476958 474715 99.5

Again, if you are looking for a villa in El Paraiso, or Elviria then it might be worth your while to compare prices per m2 to ensure you are getting a fair deal in the market.

I hope you find the data as thrilling as I do :-) We have many more property statistics on our website, so if you are interested either click the links on the right or send me a PM here, I can forward you the Excel data or give you some more hints depending on your Costa del Sol area of interest.

Till next time, thanks for reading.

 

 

 



Like 0        Published at 20:05   Comments (0)


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