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I like statistics and financial data, so I will be posting a variety of information that I hope will be equally useful to others, even though perhaps not as exciting...

3 graphs you need to see if you are selling your Costa del Sol property
04 March 2017 @ 09:54

Always on the lookout for possible trends! And trend changes.

I have been looking at price data for Costa del Sol properties lately to confirm or reject the rising trend of 2016. I then realised that I could get an advance hint of the possible future price behaviour by looking at the supply side. As we know, the price is a function of supply and demand. As we have seen on previous posts, the demand has been steadily rising from Scandinavia, France and Germany, even though it has clearly dropped from the UK. Overall sales have increased. By looking at how the number of properties has changed with time, we can try to identify any trends to get a feel of probable future price movement.

I will simply put the graphs and datatabes here first and analyse them below.

Number of villas on the market in Costa del Sol:

Number of villas on offer on Costa del Sol

Date   Number of villas
15-Oct-16 6702
19-Nov-16 6644
17-Dec-16 6712
14-Jan-17 6641
11-Feb-17 6536

 

Number of townhouses on the market in Costa del Sol:

Date   Number of townhouses
15-Oct-16 3068
19-Nov-16 3106
17-Dec-16 3109
14-Jan-17 3063
11-Feb-17 3048

 

Number of apartments on the market in Costa del Sol:

Number of apartments on Costa del Sol

Date   Number of villas
15-Oct-16 6702
19-Nov-16 6644
17-Dec-16 6712
14-Jan-17 6641
11-Feb-17 6536

 

I hope you can agree that there is a clear downward trend in the number of all three types of properties in the market since 2016. I would assert that, given the fact that sales have not decreased and in fact have risen, the price is likely to go up as supply of available properties in the market goes down. Obviously this would bring more properties in the market as more owners are motivated, but the point is to show that we may be witnessing the beginnings of a new dynamic in the market. Coupled with my previous post on how many of price changes are currently increases rather than decreases, this indicates to me that the probabilities of increased property prices are higher.

For more details and further confirmation you can check out our graphs on our website, the trend is similar accross the board, from Sierra Blanca villas to Marbella apartments.

Looking forward to your comments, I hope you enjoyed this post.

 

 

 



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2 Comments


GuyT said:
05 March 2017 @ 09:38

I wouldn't have thought you could put any store on graphs that only cover a few months - not even a full year. People might be withdrawing their properties from sale, or not putting them on sale, because they figure they are wasting their time trying to sell mid-winter.


hbcproperties said:
05 March 2017 @ 14:08

Yes, correct. That's why i spoke of "And trend changes" in the first paragraph. You are right that this is completely short term, I would even add that any longer term view is severely skewed by Brexit concerns. Time will tell!


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