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I like statistics and financial data, so I will be posting a variety of information that I hope will be equally useful to others, even though perhaps not as exciting...

Which areas of the Costa del Sol have seen a REAL rise in property prices?
02 December 2017 @ 13:48

The rise in property prices in the last 2-3 years has been showing in the government statistics and, while not anything to write home about, it has been a fact confirmed by numbers. As you know, this blogger likes cold hard number analysis before any conclusions, so I got to the task to examine at the area level whether properties prices have really risen on the Costa del Sol.

My favourite metric for prices is the Euros per metre squared (EUR/m2) that removes as much noise as possible from price data. It is the equivalent of comparing apples to apples, since no property is alike any other, therefore if we group properties at the area level we can at least assume that any other factors that affect price are very similar, and the main factor affecting price is the square metreage.

With the assumptions out of the way, let's look at the data. I have looked at the period since my last article relating to this: https://www.eyeonspain.com/blogs/spainstatistics/17172/fair-price-for-property-on-the-costa-del-sol---a-basic-reference.aspx  i.e.for the last 6 months. I have been recording the average cost of EUR/m2 for each area for each week since then - and looked at the minimum and maximum values for that period. In other words, I was looking to see if these average EUR/m2 have moved up or down since then.

Result 1: Out of 147 areas of the Costa del Sol, 75 have had their minimum EUR/m2 rise. I.e. the minimum price owners will sell their property for has risen in half of the areas. This in itself does not mean a lot, 50-50 is to be expected.

Result 2: However I counted 39 areas that have had both their minimum and maximum EUR/m2 go up, i.e. the property owners are not only unwilling to accept a low price, but are also raising their selling prices at the higher end. In one word this is called "Optimism", a very crucial element in any healthy market. Below I display the list of areas that have had property rises confirmed by statistical data (admittedly not the government's but our own anecdotal data):

Location % change of lowest EUR/m2 % change of highest EUR/m2
Alhaurin el Grande 31 20
Arroyo de la Miel 46 11
Artola 9 8
Bahia de Marbella 2 2
Bajondillo 29 29
Benamara 18 32
Calypso 14 2
Campillos 1 1
Campo Mijas 107 16
Carib Playa 1 3
Cortijo Blanco 33 10
Costabella 26 1
Costalita 51 9
Cruz Humilladero 17 16
El Faro 5 16
El Pinillo 1 4
Elviria 4 7
Fuengirola 5 10
Guadalmina Alta 18 52
Guadalmina Baja 2 1
La Carihuela 10 5
Las Brisas 2 3
Los Pacos 20 25
Malaga 30 16
Malaga Centro 5 34
Malaga Este 7 12
Manilva 14 3
Miraflores 5 0
Montemar 71 3
Nueva Andalucia 6 58
Puerto Banus 3 1
Reserva de Marbella 7 1
Riviera del Sol 13 40
San Luis de Sabinillas 35 2
San Pedro de Alcantara 25 7
Selwo 6 7
Torremolinos 2 110
Torremolinos Centro 5 6
Torremuelle 17 1

 

I hope you are an owner in one of the above areas, perhaps you could confirm or dispute the findings based on your own experience in the comments below.

If I had to draw a generic conclusion from the data, it would be that the longer established areas have not seen as much of a rise (perhaps where British people have traditionally lives, for example properties in Calahonda - Brexit effect? ), but peripheral areas like Nueva Andalucia, Campo Mijas, San Pedro etc have had most of the benefit.

Something to watch for in 6 months. If the trend continues perhaps we will see clients expanding their horizons even further to inland and more westerly/easterly Costa del Sol areas.

Thanks for reading, and have a good weekend.

 

 

 



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