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I like statistics and financial data, so I will be posting a variety of information that I hope will be equally useful to others, even though perhaps not as exciting...

British pound rises 2.5% in a day versus Euro
18 April 2017 @ 19:41

First things first, I would like to repeat that this is not a political speculation blog :-) However, the effects of political decisions, alongside a myriad other types of effects, do manifest themselves in currency markets - the biggest financial sector on earth. So further to my previous post on Brexit effects  , I am displaying here today's updated GBP vs EUR graph:


The green area is the change since the aforementioned blog post on the 13th of March where I stated that the area of 1.10 appears to be potentially strong support and where all the bad news had been absorbed. As it turns out the pound has bounced at that level around mid-March and has surged today to 9% higher than then. It is now sitting above its 200-day average which is normally consider as a long-term support in the financial world.

As an estate agent in Spain, I consider these to be very good news, regardless of the reason for the rise of GBP. It remains to be seen if this will translate in more interest from British buyers - I will be watching the statistics coming out of INE closely.

The point of this post is actually to put my neck out once again and state that I do not believe the British pound will have too much upside. If you were considering transferring money and the exchange rate was one of the factors delaying you, then perhaps you will want to take this opportunity to re-evaluate. Until 2018 I personally do not believe that any clear direction will develop, beyond what has already been traced. I base this on the clear commitment by the Bank of England to "print" what is required to counter-balance any strengthening of the pound, that might cause exports to drop more than what is expected as an effect of Brexit. And strong moves like today will force their hand.

In conclusion, my personal opinion as a blogger is that as far as the GBP/EUR exchange rate goes bear in mind that the high level might be very close. I will admit being wrong without hesitation if I need to! :-)

Thanks for reading.

Like 0


Spanishpunter said:
19 April 2017 @ 12:20

Tend to agree with you. UK Government does not want a strong £/€ rate until our terms of exit are settled as it keeps our exports competitive and reduces the impact of any possible WTO tariffs if we do not get a free trade deal.But we cannot control the state of the € and EU 27 can also manipulate the exchange rate!-looks to me like a range of 1.20/1.25 until March 2019 but I may be a touch too high! Whilst not a 'good rate' it is nevertheless one I think most in UK can live with and for Expats better than for many years after the recession although we would all like it at 1.40!!!!!!!!!

hbcproperties said:
19 April 2017 @ 12:31

Exactly. Thanks for commenting.

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