Will the EX Rate ever go back up?

Hi All,

Well, we are taking the plunge and are moving to Spain around September/October this year.

We will be putting our UK house on the market ASAP (hopefully 3 or 4 weeks) in an attempt to get as much £££'s as possible before the UK housing market goes down the drain - again!!! We should be comming out with a rock-bottom amount of £250k, hopefully more like £270K if we can sell the house for it's current value.

Anyways, here is my question - will the exchange rate EVER go back up? Every day or so I take a look at the currency markets and the rate keeps going down - currently at 1.266 - which equates to 79p. When we bought our 1st property in Spain back in August 2006, we had an exchnage rate of 1.4747, which would have meant that our £250K would be worth €368,675. Now with the rate being so low we will only get €316,500 - that's a staggering €52,175 less!!!!

So, it looks like when we do sell we should keep our money in the UK in £'s and wait until the rate goes back up, but will it go back up?

If anyone answers this with either a positive or negative response and they get it right, then I'd like them to choose my lottery numbers!!!!

Irene

Irene

I was taking the approach of dusting off my crystal ball

Noreen

Lets hope so

Usually around about now member TJ222 pops up with some pearls of wisdom concerning the markets etc. There seems to be a general consensus of opinion that property prices will continue to drop in Spain. So, coupled with the lousy ex-rate, it may be advisable to rent here for the time being. Then, when prices are rock bottom and the really good buying opportunities start appearing, you better hope and pray that your £s will buy you more €s than at the moment!

Watching the news last night they were talking about buying your holiday money. The advice was to buy it now, although it supposedly will be very up and down for the next few months. It is regularly ducking and diving between 1.26 and 1.28 at the moment.

Mark

I suppose the question should have been "why has the rate dropped so drastically over the last 3 months or so and will it ever go back up".

Roberto - We already have a 2 bed, 2 bath duplex out in Duquesa so we won't need to rent. However we would like a 3 bed, 2 bath (or 3) Townhouse with a private garden sooner rather than later because of the dog and family requirements.

Irene & Alan - Maybe I should pick your lottery numbers for you, as every week I play Wednesday and Saturday Lotto and the Euromillions - and every week I win at least once - well, the small wins - but better to win small than not at all!

In that case TechNoApe, you can pick my lotto numbers too.

Roberto, I was thinking exactly the same thing, come in TJ222

The highly regarded John Percival's Currency Bulletin says
 "Myth 1): the currency markets are highly sophisticated.
WRONG! In their present form, they are a baby market, born only in 1973. There are surprisingly few full-time experts, aside from the dealers in banks and brokerages. There you'll find expertise - but it doesn't count since their time horizon is seldom longer than a day - often more like 5 minutes!
By comparison, stock and bond markets are highly sophisticated, with thousands of savvy participants and centuries of inherited wisdom.

Myth 2): the currency markets are very complex. The trade outlook points this way, inflation that way, interest rates hither and intervention thither.
WRONG! Observers are so preoccupied with these things that they tend to be already discounted in current prices. And they're not necessarily the factors that move the currencies anyway. They are usually just noise.

In truth, there is normally just one story behind the underlying trend in a currency. And all other movements are corrections of excesses in the trend. The key to almost all these movements is sentiment.

The currencies are in fact quite simple, because there are few critical factors: the trick is in knowing which they are. Which is the noise and which is the true signal? That's what anticipating market movement is about. Over the years, Currency Bulletin has developed a systematic approach, applicable to all market conditions."

Seems like you pays your money...........!

So why can't we just join the Euro??? 

I posted the following in another thread and didn't get a reply, so if TJ222 appears in this one he might just answer my question and explain.

TJ222,

As someone who works in the city and has knowledge of the financial markets, can you help someone with a simplistic view of the Euro like me.

Why doesn't the UK join the Euro, as far as I can see it would make things a lot simpler for people when travelling into Europe.  The international unit of currency as far as me and my aquaintances are concerned, is the 'Pint of Beer'.

Friends would travel far and wide and on their return the usual question from the Ladies is "What was it like" and "Was it Sunny?" and from the Blokes "How much was a Pint?"

From their response you can judge whether it was a rich or poor country they had just returned from.  Now, if everyone had the Euro, this would make the quick mental arithmetic involved to change Euros into Sterling redundant and give a far more accurate view on the state of a nations economy.

"One Euro and 39 Cents" is more meaningful than "A pint? about 2 quid."  We can always have the queens head on one side and Isambard kingdom Brunel on the other for the Euro sceptics.

Or are there wider implications?  A simple explanation please.

Kelju

So why can't we just join the Euro??? 

At what price? Join it at the wrong time and goods will be far more expensive tan they should be. Also take into account the Bank of England would not be able to set our interest rates during times of need, it would be done by the ECB. I think we as a country have given too much to Europe, currency would be the last straw! As annoying as it is, historically I believe Sterling has always bounced back providing a much better rate in the long run. Yes, it would be great to to not pay currency transfer fees to move monies across Europe, yes we could probably pay our Spanish mortgages from a UK bank account, but we are not an island for nothing .

Mark

 

At what price. Well said, Marksfish,

My sister is in Holland and I have close friend in Germany. Till now they still remember the nightmare the day their currency converted to EU. Overnight all of their earning and saving dramatically shirked. At mean time everything in shop becomes more expensive. Do we really want that? Or we just sit tight and let market economy take its cause.

I personally think it would be a great idea if the UK took the Euro.

Most of the inhabitants would be used to it anyway..........

Mark-it used to be an island,it has a nice big funnel(sorry tunnel) attached to it now linking it with the rest of europe..........

Markfish

I remember when Decimilisation came in during the 70's and it did indeed push up prices, I wasn't quite a teenager and the biggest impact on me as I can remember is that when i went to the Fair I only got 100 goes on the Penny Slots instead of the 240 I used to for a £1.

With regards to interest rates if we join the Euro, hasn't the Euribor always been lower than the Bank of England rate?

My question is regarding further implications (if there are any) rather than the Island and "...we will loose our identity..." mentality.  I don't pretend to understand why we should or should not join the Euro, I just think that it would make things simpler if we did. 

After all, why not be a part of Europe, join in fully and help to formulate its direction and policies rather than sit on the perimiter looking in and tut tutting about the shape of Bananas and having to weigh them in Kilos!

Kelju

This message was last edited by kelju on 3/31/2008.

My biggest gripe about the whole Europe argument is that we obey all the narrow minded rules (take the bananas for example) thrown at us by Brussels; and France, Germany, et al choose what they want to abide by. I'm sorry, but I am British and (currently) proud of it. I don't want to live in a watered down Britain that is a part of the United States of Europe, in fact I would prefer we left Europe altogether (but that is another discussion for another day). That said, if/ when I finally move to Spain to live I would want it to be where I can indulge in the local customs, and join in the language, a smaller version of Britain is not what I would be looking for.

I am not quite old enough to remember decimalisation, but I do know that in Spain and Italy, prices seemed to escalate greatly with the Euros introduction. Do we really want the price rise here as well?

Mark

I have a theory that Gordon Brown is waiting for the pound and the Euro to acheive par and then he will rush the UK into the Euro by taking advantage of some small clause in one of the 3000+ laws introduced by new labour over the last 10 years.  There will be no consultation or consideration of what the British might think about it. 

I'm proud to be British - Welsh by the grace of God

However, I must say that this country is going down 'the tubes'. And I think even more so since GB got into No. 10.

Since starting this thread I've looked at the historical data on the ex rate and as soon as GB got in - the rate shot down - I mean the same way as a birck doesn't float when you throw it in at the deep end of the pool!!! We are talking greased poo of a shovel slide here.

I'm not going to start talking politics, but GB in No.10 is the worst thing since sliced bread and that's why I'm glad we're off to Spain - because the way things are going with the amount of immigrants FLOODING into the UK, the economy on the worst slow down ever, way to much cheap Euorpean imports, the housing market due for a small crash, an inflation rate about to get way higher than they can control and the world wide credit crunch comming our way thanks to the US of A.

By the way, the paragraph above IS why the ex rate is so bad - I've done a lot of research over the last few days - not that I needed to as the research only bore the truth that I had expected all along.

Oh, and lets not forget the crisis in the middle east which has been going on for over a quater of a century even BEFORE the travesties of Afghanistan and Iraq, which is and has been driving the oil prices ever skyward, whilst oil and coal reserves start to dwindle within which could start the next global conflict as superpowers try and 'safeguard' their own requirements.

Hmm. seems 'them thar hills' Spanish wise are a good move after all.

 

This message was last edited by TechNoApe on 4/1/2008.

I remember Gordon Brown stating that if the Euro ever levelled at 1.31 then he would seriously consider joining.

It seems like the Euro is going to sit around this rate for some time as the world wide economic doom spreads like a fog throughout the modern world.

I was listening to an analyst at the weekend state that the UK will be the last to pull itself from any recession,the reasons being that the USA dependency levels ie the percentage of taxes it has to pay to support its healthcare sytsem and hangers on is 9% where as the UK perncentage is 42%.

Also that the figures released on immigration in the UK has actually had a detremental effect on the economy rather that what was previously stated estimating that all the new foreign workers were actually having a positive effect on the country.

I too was very patriotic and to a point still am very proud of a couple of things,i think the armed forces are something to be proud of and i still get goose bumps when i hear "god save the queen".

Without running the risk of starting a full scale war and purely out of interest only what are British people still patriotic about and proud of?

I think people will find it very difficult without harking back to the past to find something to wave the flag about,i hope i am wrong but it seems that in the last 10-15 years the decline has hastened at such a rate i fear for the next ten.

I personally think it would be a good idea to introduce the euro to bring a level playing field to Europe, the days when the UK was an Island race dissapeared as borders fell throughout the World.

Without running the risk of starting a full scale war and purely out of interest only what are British people still patriotic about and proud of?

Time for a new thread methinks .

Mark

fire away.........

I am here to play devils advocate....

i am ex pat who is waiting to be proved wrong............

Just my two cents worth...

I receive three small UK company pensions all paid in £stg.
They dont amount to a lot and initially we could just about manage.
But now, with the Euro so strong against other world currencies the value of these pensions has reduced by almost 20%.
For instance, one of them is for £400 per month; initially this converted to 580 Euros, but now is worth only 508.
In August this year I am due to start receiving my UK state pension; as things stand at the moment it looks like this will just about make up the losses due to the strong Euro

Also we receive a few small US Dollar cheques each month and the exchange rate USD~Euro is now about  2:1.
By the time bank commission has been paid 250$ is worth about 148 Euros.

Should Britain join the Euro? From my point of view yes; it should be a requirement for the joining the EU.

Should we ever have joined the EU? debateable...

What am I proud of about the UK?  Not a lot I can think of these days.  Like others I am proud of our forces and support them to the hilt, I am proud of the Nations acheivements over the centuries and I think that the breathtaking scenic diversity cannot be beaten anywhere in the world, I am proud that we developed the finest system of Parliamentry democracy on the planet, now so debased by corrupt politicians.  I also think that the ideal of the EU is great, but debased once again by self serving politicians.  I simply cannot support a system where the major players and rule makers are essentially unelected.  I cannot face living in a place where the main driver for polotics is to think up new taxes to soak those who have worked hard for many decades to provide for themselves only to see the money frittered away on hopeless ideals and benefits, which in the main are paid to those who ill deserve them.  I cannot live in a place where Government policy is to destroy family stability and marriage by encouraging young women to bear illegitimate children in order to get a free roof and living at the expense of all those who labour every day to make ends meet.  I could go on, perhaps I don't fit in anywhere any more (sob,sob).

Mike

 

Mike - My sentiments exactly!

It is the reason that I am so proud means why I am leaving. I cannot bear to continue living in this country when I see every day what is happening to it.

Call it 'rats leaving a sinking ship' if you like. I just cannot stand it any longer.

I am proud of:

The best Armed Forces in the world - Army, Navy, Air Force - When you want a job done, you call in the Brits. Well done to all who serve Queen and country so well, especially those who have paid the ultimate price.

The best Parliamentary government system in the world - Which keeps this lands sovereignty intact and away from a 'Federal European State' that would sap this country and the rest of Europe dry.

The best legal system in the world - One that states you are innocent until proven guilty and are provided with 'legal aid' and unbiased representation.

The best countryside in the world - Hills, Valleys, lakes, forests and glens. A land and a history preserved that spans more than two millennia. 

What I am not proud of:

An armed forces without adequate logistical support. munitions or even basic protection from forces that are funded by other countries intent on destroying the very basic fundamentals of democracy and freedom. They need our support, every day - it doesn't matter why they are there - the fact remains they are and people in this country keep on complaining about it - I for one am proud of our armed forces protecting us from the very forces that would take our freedom away.

A government that is not spending money where it is needed. Stop giving money to the 'state spongers' who, as Mike stated, are encouraged to do so!!! Give money back to the people who are actually working, at least they are trying to feed themselves. However, supply our armed forces with what they need so at least they can do there job and protect themselves whilst they are doing it - doesn't matter whether it is right or wrong - they need our help and support, so spend my taxes on them!

A government that taxes to heavily on the basic requirements. Tax heavily on Alcohol and Cigarettes, but not on the food we eat or the fuel that goes into our vehicles so that the farmers and hauliers may bring that food to our markets.

A legal system that is FAR to lenient on criminals. Teenage and younger yobs roam our streets making one afraid to walk around during the day, leave alone at night. And if you protect yourself, you are punished far worse than those who transgress against you. The Police are left powerless to tackle this ever increasing problem.

A countryside and heritage that is wasted on the youth of today. They would rather see a video of 'happy slapping' than feel the wonder of walking through a forest on a summer’s eve. Or visit an ancient monument and wonder in awe as to its construction. Or even the way and quality of life of our ancestors - what they went through so they are here today with the freedoms that they have and take for granted - and then renege on them via their behaviour.

This is why I am leaving the UK and going to Spain - it's not just because my €'s will go much further than my £'s do. However also because you don’t see such yobs on the CDS - I saw a Spanish Policeman cuff a youngster around the ear for spitting on the sidewalk and I've never seen a group of thugs hanging around on a street corner drinking alcohol and yelling abuse at passersby.

Ok Spain isn't the best country in the world, but at least they recognise that they have problems and are trying to tackle them.

So yes, as I said before I am as proud as can be to Welsh and British - However am not proud of the state of the country and where it is leading. So I at least am doing something about it - the only thing I can - and that's get out whilst I can.

PS. I'm 40 years old and not, as some yob would call me, 'a twisted old man' - and yes! I have stood up to these yobs and won.

This message was last edited by TechNoApe on 4/5/2008.

I agree with Techno Ape and I blame it all on Maggie Thatcher and her policies of the 80's that didn't give a damm about the ordinary working man.

I live in an area where most of the adult males were employed in either the Steel works or the Mines, Maggie shut them down without a thought for the consequences of the locality or the long term energy needs of the UK, ironically there are some who now want to see the Pits opened again as an answer to rising Gas prices and to provide fuel to generate electricity.

Anyway, back to the point.  The 50 plus age group will not work in the call centres that are springing up because it is not a 'Proper Job' compared to the mines. Therefore In this area we now have pockets of 2nd & 3rd generations who have never had a job, they see their Grandparents & Parents living a comfortable life on benefits and cannot see why they should have to work.  Feral youths roam these areas with no regard for anyone because they have not had the discipline of work and as you say can be found drinking on street corners. 

Asian families move into council owned property and because no one can keep track of them, manage to occupy several houses by moving cousins around (you think I'm kidding but I regularly witness this), then a couple of years later buy the property at a knock down rate under Maggies Right to Buy.  The Council take no notice because as soon as anyone challenges them they claim "Racial Prejudice/harrassment.  Once they have several properties they rent them out to the Eastern Europeans who sleep 3 or 4 to a room paying an exhorbitant rent for the privelege.  All of this is contributing to the social decay that is blighting our country, .

If some of our overpaid elected representatives would take the time and trouble to step outside of their cosseted and priveleged world and open their eyes then they might realise that the ordinary British citizen has had enough of scroungers, being taxed to the hilt and seeing immigrants taking advantage of the systems put into place to protect the vulnerable.

Our armed forces are the best in the world and my answer to some of the problems would be to bring back National Service and put back some of the Pride and feeling of Self Worth into these youths then hopefully in 10 to 20 years time we will see the result of Maggie's reign reversed.

Phew, I'm going to have to go and cool down now  think I'll dodge the feral youth and go for a Pint, now that's something to be proud of, the British Pub, "All Hail to the Ale"

 

Kelju

I couldn't have put it better myself.

Maybe we should start a petition and get loads of people to 'electronically' sign it, take it to number 10 and say:

"We are here to present the PM with a petition, signed by 1000's of people, asking him to open his eyes and ears, take a look outside of his cotton wool world and listen to what the people of this great country are actually saying. If he want's to get the right answers, then come and take a look at this forum".

I think you can do that on the dot gov website, maybe we ought to start it off.

have to agree with most of Kelju'scomments but where are these wealthy , non working grand parents?

I have worked and paid my dues for 50 years, the last 12 in a   reasonably paid managerial position .I have just been told my pensio0n will be £131 a week.Fortunately I have a private pension that should pay for a couple of sangrias but  that  also fell 25% short of the " worst case scenario"  Maybe my mistake was working for a living

There is no doubt aout the fact that the average working brit has been screwed for years.

Some interesting comments, although getting away from the original post.  I worked for 50 years (actually I haven't stopped fully yet) and find that my pension is little better than my wife's who paid Ni contributions for about half that time.  I can't begrudge her, or any working mum a good pension, heaven knows in all they have worked hard enough over the years, but where does the "married man's" portion of my pension go because she has one in her own right.  To bringing up some agressive, uneducated layabout I bet.  Also my private pensions have lost far more than 25% of the "worst case",  which is the reason I continue to work.

Actually I have given much thought to what can be done about the situation in the UK and e-mail petitions aren't it.  They are on the gov. website as a sop to the masses, so that they feel they are having their say, but can just be ignored.  mass demonstrations and civil disobedience is the only way for us as far as I can see.  I don't want to get this into being political and will steer away from Maggie Thatcher comments, but suffice to say the New Labour Government has done more harm to the working and middle classes than Maggie ever did, but don't think I hold much truck with the Conservatives either, they are just New Labour in pin stripes!  You can't really blame all this on any one party, they are all the same trough shovellers (some exceptions I know).  I constantly have Customers and HR people saying to me "What are we going to do when you have gone, there is no replacement".  Thats because they gave up training 40 years ago and pocketed the money it saved.  When there is no training, schools stop teaching and just fill the time.  Sooner or later the kids get bored and disruptive and then having learned nothing expect the state to pay for their ignorance.  That was the last generation, many in this one never even thought that work was an option.

Hi!

My eldest son is in the RAF - I fluctuate between overwelming pride and total fear over his choice of career. The whole family, him included, have accepted that time spent in Afghanistan  or Iraq or similar will pose great risks.

What I cannot forgive is that he has been ordered, whilst he is in the Uk , not wear uniform in public - or anything that gives any indication of his affiliation.

THis is in his own homeland.....sad or what?!!??

 

 

 

It's more than sad, it's a disgrace!  When I started at my senior school in '56 most of our teachers were ex-forces, ie, people who had been somewhere, done something and had experience of life that bought them immediate respect in the classroom.  Most of us had been bought up by our mothers during the war years without much male influence (in many ways not dissimilar to today), but these teachers were real men, who had been tested, sometimes in the most awful ways and could not only teach, but command instant respect from the youngsters who could recognise heroes (real, not sporting).  Not for them school, university, teachers college and a soft teaching job.  They had come from all walks of life and unlike todays teachers, gave in good measure, self respect and integrity as well as a thoroughly practical view on the subject they taught.  Although I sometimes feel sorry for teachers in this PC, litigeous world, where a wrong word will bring the parents and the law down on their heads, they just can't compare with these guys who had fought for their country.

Since then I have worked with and had many friends with a military background and respected (and yes envied) every one of them.  Unfortunately I was never in the forces and feel that I missed not only a great experience, but the comeradeship and stature one finds in military people.  Thank god for people like your son, he is a man in the best sense of the word.  Your concern must be almost unbearable, but your pride must be limitless.