Climate change could bring dengue fever to Spain by the middle of the century
Monday, August 25, 2014 @ 8:41 PM
GLOBAL warming could mean tropical diseases such as dengue reach Spain within a short period of time, according to researchers from the University of East Anglia in Norwich.
Using current data from México, one of the countries where dengue fever is a risk, and comparing it with that of the 28 countries in the European Union, the investigators in the Norfolk (UK) college worked out the probability of the disease reaching the continent.
Coastal regions on the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas, the Po Valley in northern Italy, and north-eastern Italy could be at risk, say the UEA scientists.
As for Spain, the south is the most likely area to get hit by dengue, as well as the east coast.
Paul Hunter, of Norwich Medical School says the incidence of the tropical virus is likely to rise to as many as one victim per 1,000 inhabitants in the last three decades of this century.
His team studied climate and dengue fever incidence in México and in 27 EU countries over the period from 1961 to 1990, and from this were able to predict how this might increase if climate change continues its current course over the short term – from the years 2011 to 2040 – the medium term, from 2041 to 2070, and the long term from 2071 to 2100.
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