Is Now The Time to Buy or Sell ??

Just apply statistics to the UK

Sorry Roly, I have no idea about what happens in the UK, and as this is Eye on Spain. !!!!!
 

 But in the context of talking of statistics - perfectly valid.   And a lot of readers of these forums are still in the UK - so they will be following price averages there too.

This video from the FT gives a good perspective.

http://video.ft.com/v/1871043734001

My take is that spanish property prices are still falling and falling more slowly than  UK, USA and Ireland - the reason being

that spanish mortgage holders try harder to keep up their mortgage payments. 

So the threat is that house prices in Spain will continue to fall by up to another 35% in total over the next two years.

Another 35% over 2 years would certainly be challenging for the economy & expats selling out of Spain.

Hopefully, it might not be that bad !!

Harry

We've just spent over a week in our house in Pilar de la Horadada, near Murcia. One thing that struck me immediately was the much reduced number of "se vende" signs in the area. Although I don't think by any stretch of the imagination that this is indicative of a makdet turn around, I was further puzzled by the fact that Victoria Playa, a developer well known locally, from whom we boutht our property, is building a beauatiful unrbanization called "Las Artes". We also paid a visit to a local caravan site linked to a local hotel. Although they've only been in business for the last 18 months, there was clear evidence of an expansion (I was told 70 more plots were being created because of unexpected demand). The place was full of very expensive-looking motor homes owned mostly by Northern Europeans spending the long winter months in the area.

Another observation worthy of note is the increased presence of older couples in Torre de la Horadada, which was evident not only on the local beaches, but also in the restaurants. Admittedly  most of those who don't own property in the area are preferring to rent for a few months rather than to buy. But I suppose the market works both ways. The crisis didn't happen overnight and perhaps not many will notice when it's over - until it's too lalte for some to buy, I guess.

 Interesting point about the motor home site.

Near Duquesa, Manilva there was an eyesore of an abandoned caravan/motor home park by the sea front.

It looked as though it had been disused for 10 years or more.

In February 2012 it was being re-developed (as a motorhome parking site) with new toilet block, shop, etc.

It was being brought up to a high standard. So one eyesore gone.

But motor home owners probably don't rent  holiday homes so if this is a trend for lower cost touring holidays

it does not help to support property prices but it does help employment.

Taking a motorhome to Spain is by no means cheaper than renting, PMillson. For a start you need to own or rent the motorhome. Then you have to take it to your destination, which can be very costly, and pay for the plot, which, at the site that I mentioned, would be approx. 600 Euros per month for a medium-sized plot. Compare all that to how much I charge for our two-bedroom, two-bathroom villa during the winter: 450 Euros per month plus bills. I own two properties not far from the Lomonte caravan site and have always had tenants during the winter months for the last 5 years. I agree, though, that they have brought business to the area and created a few much needed jobs (and their food is very good aquality and inexpensive).

"One thing that struck me immediately was the much reduced number of "se vende" signs in the area."

Curious to know what might be behind this ie are sellers perhaps giving up or reducing prices to achieve sales ??

Cheers,

Harry

 "One thing that struck me immediately was the much reduced number of "se vende" signs in the area."

Agree totally,it is getting harder and harder to find the real cheapy bargains that we used to have.

For Example in one Residential apartment complex in the town i usually have 6 or 7 apartments for sale at any one time,in recent times i have had a selection of ground floor,second floor and penthouses at under 55,000€.

I now have one second floor at 59,995€

A client i recently sold to was looking for a penthouse in one specific blocks there and she refused to pay more than 50,000€ as they had been sold recently at that level.

I told her the only one i had was 59,995€.

She told me she would get back to me when she had found a cheaper one....i knew there wasnt a cheaper one....i had the only one for sale in the whole development.

She bought it at 59,995€,3 weeks later.

Thats a good example of the local market at the moment

Another good example is i took a property on the other day and it was a good price,i knew another agent had it on the day before me.....before i could get it on my website...it had sold!!

Does that data suggest the market in parts of Murcia has bottomed & is now rising ?

 Of course it does - as long as you are taking the looney pills and you have very big rose tinted specs.

At best it means that people are buying the very inexpensive stuff - why would they not??   There are plenty more to come onto the market from half finished developments around Murcia and other places - so that is what will happen.  To talk about prices rising is nothing short of insanity.    

Hi Roly,

"looney pills" - ha ha ha !!!

The rational for my tongue in cheek question stems from data below which appeared to imply that values had risen about 9% for the complex in question.

But as you imply, this info might be selective/misleading.

Harry

 I cant possibly comment on Murcia.

Just giving an example of a real life situation in my town.

 I was not doubting that these sales are taking place Georgia - and I have always said that people do not buy on price alone.  It is just that it is statistically insignificant.  And we are talking about such very low prices, it is not surprising that they are moving.

Georgia...I'm sure you've mentioned this before so apologies for not remembering...but who are you selling properties to?  Is it all nationalities, mostly British, Spanish, German, Scandinavian?  We are in Spain at the moment and it's heartbreaking to see the news and know that so many Spaniards are having such a hard time at the moment, with unemployment still rising.  However, it's not so noticeable along the coastline (although it IS noticeable) where there are still jobs in the many shops, bars and restaurants that remain open.  Many have closed down. The difference we're finding here, on the Costa del Sol, to when we were last here three years ago is the much-reduced prices in many of the bars and restaurants.  Competition! 

There are more beggars in the streets than there were previously but they are, kindly, tollerated by most of the bar/restaurant owners that don't seem to mind that they move from place to place holding out their cups for change where there are folks sitting outside having a drink or a meal.

Graeme13 is also a property agent in Murcia & his advice is always highly objective & balanced ie somewhat different from what we hear below !!

Harry

 Hi Maddie,

I would say it's approximately 50% Brits,20% Scandanavian,20% Belgian and French and 10% Danish,Spanish etc etc..

In our Algorfa office i suppose you could say we are selling bargain basement apartments which although are very nice are going on the market around the 50k mark.

People do not seem to afraid to part with that amount of money for their little piece of sunshine.

I have just taken on a La Finca apartment that was 200,000€ in the boom for 69,995€....amazing.....it will sell this week i have no doubt!

we are only doing well because of prices being so low,i have no illusion about this!!

I have been doing this for 25 years and in every recession i have witnessed,there are always people that pounce and prosper!

Georgia

Out of interest.

  A propery which was worth 200,000, selling for 70,000,  what is the 'price, according to the  Hacienda'  on which taxes must be paid ?

There are likely to be many reasons for the reduction in the number of "se vende" signs in some areas (e.g. Pilar/Torre de la Horadada). I know, for example, that a good number of properties (probably as many as 50%) are owned by fellow Spaniards who either inhereted them or bought them as second homes and can afford to hold on to (and enjoy) them during this crisis. Short and long-term rentability in the area is also very good for a variety of reasons: goog climate, easy accessibility, area very flat, beautiful blue-flag beaches, stunning promenades, manicured parks, proximity to the recently-opened Zenia Boulevard, etc. This, in my own experience, is a big plus, as it helps keep lenders at bay (and, consequently, resist the pressure to sell).

I'm not qualified to comment on the Spanish housing market as a whole, but if anecdotal evidence is  anything to go by, my experience of this area could be indicative of the existence of very different markets within the country. It would be interesting to hear others' perspectives on their local areas.

 john,

As long as the full purchase price is declared on the escritora i have not had an issue yet with the Hacienda,all facturas must also be in place for agents fees etc.