04 Apr 2019 8:37 AM:
Ads
Thanks for the report, very interesting.
We already have experiential experience of the poor forecasting done before major changes - as mentioned in the report. For example pre ERM (that we later had to leave) and pre-Euro. There is a lot of information on here also well researched but if I may highlight page 13+ and the 12 points (non quantified) ..... and page 17+ the positive overall (and quantified) effect of a WTO-deal Brexit.
Also the fears we were advised of after the referendum havent happened. No recession, no punishment budget, no 500,000 loss of jobs in the financial sector, no increase in unemployment (the opposite in fact) etc. Etc.
Poor forecasting is one huge problem, but MISINFORMATION is a scary problem. When Nick Clegg was interviewed last year on the BBC and asked about his HUGE support of the UK entering the Eurozone and how he got it wrong .. He agreed that he had wrongly supported it, in hindsight, but laughed and brushed it off, and said that the EU (quote) 'fiddled' the information. This was a senior politician, influential, deeply involved with this on an EU level, admitting that be was lied to!! I wasn't laughing when I heard that.
Most people would agree that uncertainty is bad for business and the economy. This started when the Conservatives won in 2015, on a manifesto commitment for an in/out referendum. Then we were waiting for the date to be announced (in 2016... ) Then of course the referendum, the result and A50. Years of uncertainty in fact.
I suggest that this is far worse than 'normal uncertainty' . We have seen a vicious referendum campaign on both sides, families and friends split, political and constitutional crises, the country split, both sides losing respect for the political class, rising support for extreme right/left etc etc Uncertainty-times-100!
Yet we have not fallen into recession etc in this horrible time, over many years. Yesterdays vote was very disappointing to me potentially dragging this mess on ....and on .... And on! It won by ONE vote in 300+, a far smaller difference than the 52:48 for Brexit.
Obviously I am pro Brexit, with no satisfactory deal, I want a WTO-deal next week and bring this to an end. Then we can stop discussing about forecasts and fears, and get on with dealing with the ACTUAL problems that will probably arise. As we have somehow dealt with after years of extreme uncertainty.
With my personal circumstances I have also been affected financially and practically .. and I don't expect to recover soon. So before anyone makes a blanket accusation that I am self serving, understand that that is wrong.
Thanks again Ads for a great report.
Jon
This message was last edited by Jon on 04/04/2019.
This message was last edited by Jon on 04/04/2019.
This message was last edited by Jon on 04/04/2019.
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