Slowing sales in Spain, but prices will rise by 7% in 2026, according to BBVA Research
Friday, December 5, 2025 @ 5:44 PM
A new report from BBVA Research confirms the core reality of the Spanish property market: sales volumes are slowing due to a chronic lack of supply, but this same scarcity is forcing prices into a new phase of strong appreciation. The bank’s highly current "Real Estate Observatory" (November 2025) projects that while the overall number of transactions will stagnate in 2026 - forecasting a negligible -0.3% change - national housing prices are secured for another year of significant growth, projected to climb by 7.0% in 2026. This trend provides exceptional security for long-term investors: your asset value is insulated from any market fluctuation by an unstoppable structural deficit.
This trend provides exceptional security for long-term investors. Photo: Unsplash
Structural deficit & price growth in Spain
The reason behind this price acceleration is simple and structural: Spain cannot build fast enough to meet demand generated by strong employment, migration, and the appeal of buying over increasingly expensive renting.
The BBVA data confirms the severity of this fundamental imbalance:
- Cumulative housing deficit: Between 2021 and 2025, Spain accumulated a housing deficit of approximately 625,000 households whose housing needs were unmet by new construction.
- Price resilience: Despite the sharp nominal price rises, the price remains 30% below the 2007 bubble peak in real terms, confirming market recovery, not a speculative boom.
- Accelerating prices: This deficit drove prices up by a confirmed 9.7% in the first half of 2025, a momentum BBVA forecasts will lead to a 10.1% rise for the full year. This sharp growth sets the foundation for the stable 7.0% appreciation expected in 2026.
Overall number of home sales will stagnate in 2026 - forecasting a negligible 0.3% change. Source: BBVA
Sales slowing down is viewed as healthy
The projected stagnation in sales for 2026 is actually a positive signal for the market's long-term health. It is not a sign of collapsing demand, but rather a confirmation that:
- Supply is exhausted: The market has simply run out of available inventory, especially quality, affordable stock in high-demand areas.
- Marginal demand is culled: The steep rise in prices means that marginal buyers, often those highly sensitive to mortgage rates and dependent on full financing, are being priced out. This culls speculative demand and leaves the market in the hands of secure, long-term investors.
Read more at thinkSPAIN.com