02 Jul 2012 5:05 PM:

GuyT:

the question is what degree of security of the asset qualifies it as an "investment" as against speculation.

I was using the term "investment" as opposed to the common use as holiday home. I'm not even slightly concerned about using the place for a solid decade.

It will be rented out until I retire, then I'll check its value, and decide whether I want to spend a few months every year in the sun....

if its made money, good, if not then hopefully the demon inflation will have whittled away the liability I tend towards the Keynes viewpoint "in the long run.... we're dead".

"who on earth.... would want a holiday home in Spain?"

Someone who didn't pay 2007 prices, that's who.....

Someone who takes the long view, who can take advantage of dumb-ass 100% mortgage offers. (ie that's my currency risk ameliorated, except for the euro-peseta thing that we're all baffled by). Anyway the banks dumping the properites on the market at any price WILL clear the market.... Yes, there's an element of speculation, as in everything from crossing the road to buying shares!

Is it an "investment" same as a building-society nope, is it the same as Shares etc, well yes, its comparable in many ways except the CajaMurcia will be fronting me. (Thanks guys, remember to thank Mrs Merkel for keeping you afloat through your previous c**k-ups, and providing you with fresh cash to push at me.)

The villa I'm looking at was (allegedly and with kites-flying) on the market for just over 250k euros 2008. Now they looking hungrily at my offers of around 90k euro, and I reckon I can turn the screw a bit more .

Thread: Mortgages and return to the peseta

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02 Jul 2012 12:08 PM:

Focus  - Mortgages and return to the peseta.... puhleeze...

Thread: Mortgages and return to the peseta

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02 Jul 2012 11:53 AM:

 I'm looking forward to my upcoming purchase (where and how much tbd), I'm coming to Murcia to look at Villas that they tried to sell for 250k euro a few years ago. Not now....

The bank, stuffed with euro funds is lending 100%, bless 'em! I look at it as a way to get my hands on euro bailout funds. (Berlin lends t Spain, Spain lends to the banks, the banks lend to me, I buy assets at 100%) This is a normal market clearing operation.

My only issue (and lets go back to the thread topic) was that Spain may introduce the peseta, but that somehow, the mortgage may remain in Euro's. 

The bottom line is the apartments are so cheap that even if this happens I think the effects would be temporary. Look at Iceland, several years after the default and devaluation they're coming out of recession, brushing themselves down and getting on with it. Because they DIDN'T stand behind their banks. The Irish stood behaind their banks, and now are on their knees, the Spanish have just received a loan so that they can stand behind their banks, and are currently going down to their knees. Can you spot the pattern?

Anyhooo.... Friday 13th(!) and I'll be in Murcia, (Mazarron) trolling round Estate Agents visiting apartments, townhouses and villas. 

The bad news for owners is that I'm a pure bargain hunter. The more distress the better. Hard maybe, but its the only way to think when the world is like it is. Mrs Merkel is making it possible for me to get a cheap, cheap loan on a once-in-a-generation investment bargain. (it could be 2020, 2025 before prices rise past their pre-bubble peaks). 

 

Thread: Mortgages and return to the peseta

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01 Jul 2012 1:13 PM:

sovereign default in a historical context:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_default#List_of_sovereign_debt_defaults_or_debt_restructuring

(i was going to post the entire list, but it would be tooooo long.....)

from this its plainly obvious it happens and life goes on.

for greece its time to bite the bullet and get it over with. for portgual i just don't know. for Ireland I think they'll squeak by. 

Italy and Spain are the giant question marks here. Again I think a negotiated settlement will be best.

Today I awoke to the news that Britain's weakest prime minister since I can remember is playing to the gallery offering referenda on EU membership. What a tool!

Sooner I buy into Europe the sooner I will avoid a sterling revaluation. (downwards..) 

Thread: Mortgages and return to the peseta

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30 Jun 2012 2:20 PM:

Yes, thats the "good" outcome, ie the mortgage gets converted to the same currency as the asset is held in.

The less good outcome is that if spain leaves the euro, but not the EU, then the mortgages remain in euro's but the asset is valued in peseta's. yikes!

People seem to be saying "but they can't do that can they...." Given the historical horse-trading around bail outs etc "they" can do what they like.

Greece is expendable for the Euro, also probably Portugal and maybe even Ireland.

But Spain and Italy are central to it. If Spain and Italy leave then to my mind the euro is toast, and the "will they convert" becomes a moot point as the they have no choice.

There's no way Greece can avoid default, now, next week, next month, it will happen, the figures are overwhelming with no escape. (Unless they get ever growing bi-annual bailouts forever and ever).

As a potential purchaser of reposession bargains (sorry, but yes I'll buy in at 1/4 the old price, sorry dude, thats how it goes) I'm more worred about the rental returns than anything else. I've got a solid 10 years before I need to sit in the sun, by which time i hope inflation and repayments have whittled the debt to very small, and by then, the economy should have picked up somewhat.

Paramount Park and Covera Airpoirt will be about to open then as well.....

Thread: Mortgages and return to the peseta

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