11 Jul 2012 1:09 PM:

The crisis's in Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy (with Ireland having succombed years before) IS NOT good news to any European Country, and even the UK, but as unser liebe Angela demonstrated, no-one in the EU really wants to risk the inevitable domino effect of any of the countries listed, failing and exiting Stage Left..

Angie Baby started off with the macho talk, but the repercussions of any of the "biggies" opting out were too horrendous to contemplate - hence the somewhat humiliating cave-in.

But in the end, I reckon that it will be "people power" who dictates what eventually happens - politicians are fire-proof until there's an election in the offing (as demonstrated in France) and then the people exercise ballot box decisions.         Just how much WILL the average Herman stand for?          Without the constant need to be bailing the sick countries out, Germany would again enjoy a superb standard of living, and they must yearn for this to re-happen..

France (at least the voters) has demonstrated its "French first" attitude: how long before Germany gets more "charity begins at home" mentality, and wonder why they should have their standards of living eroded to bail out inefficient Countries who put their own citizens and their quality of life first - essentially, on "free" money?..         

A Spanish economist friend of mine prophesised more than 2 years (when only the PIGS were a topic of concern) ago that Italy was also well down down the bumpety-bump route - unheard of at that time.

Give it time, and if some of these Countries don't actually revert to their previous currency, a "two tier" euro is well possible.     Germany, Austria, Holland & France possibly playing in the Premier League, and the rest in the 3rd Division.     The Premier League could possibly take Belgium & Luxembourg with them (although they may not particularliy want Belgium) and then go it alone.      The rest of the current EU would have to sort out their own affairs, and survive as best they could.

A two tier currency has happened beforee (N. & S. Ireland being just one example) and whilst not ideal, it survived for a long time.

Watch this space! 

 

This message was last edited by finkies on 11/07/2012.
Thread: Exchange rate if Euro collapses

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09 Jul 2012 6:30 PM:

Hi DonLochnagar,

Speaking to some of my German friends, Germany has also put most into the euro, and they've been paying the Piper for years.

And they DO NOT like the tunes that he's playing.

Thread: Exchange rate if Euro collapses

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07 Jul 2012 1:18 PM:

Hi all,

I'm not an economist (although even those boyos don't seem to be shining particularly brightly at the moment) just a laptop pundit.

I take on board what you all say, but from what I hear and read,it doesn't sound as though the average "Juan" or "Giorgos" have as much confidence in a seamless transition- or protection.

It would appear that euros are flooding out of both Greece & Spain "just in case".

If I remember correctly, some €65+ Billion exited Stage Left from Spain in May 2012 - as compared with around only €5 Billion on May 2011 - and how much of that went home in the pockets of tourists?

I personally reckon that Juan & Giorgos know what they're doing (or fearing) and there must now be some very thick mattresses in the rest of Europe.  

Thread: Exchange rate if Euro collapses

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03 Jul 2012 1:09 AM:

hi awasteofspace

"A good pressure washer just before dusk"

And go-faster running shoes - don't forget the running shoes.  (either them, or get the wife to to actually do the jet-washing - you direct events from 100 metres away).

 

 

 

This message was last edited by finkies on 03/07/2012.
Thread: how to get rid of wasp's nests

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02 Jul 2012 3:13 PM:

HI smiley,

Regarding how dependent Germany is on, and how much Germany is swayed by,  the rest of Europe, if you cast your mind back to the 1960's Germany had to "go it alone then".   At that time (I was a squadie in BAOR) the Army fixed its exchange rate once per year - it was lovely, us Soviet cannonfodder were getting 9 Dm for each £1, and the international rate had dropped to lss than 5.   Eventually even the mighty BAOR had to eat Humble Kuchen and transfer to calculating a monthyly rate.

The pundits were forecasting that no-one would ever buy a Beetle, least of all a Merc, ever again - and perhaps for a few months, sales did decline somewhat.       But if there is a demand, then people will pay whatever they need to.  Germany did what was best for them then, and if it comes to the crunch, they'll do it again.

And on your other point, of course there were "flippers" & opportunists: when there's money to be made, the sharks will circle.

But I've lived in Spain for 8+ years now, and of all the many dozens of people that I've met and spoken to, only one had admitted to trying to make some shekels out of the opportunity.      W ithout exception, all of the others either bought to live here at some stage, or broke open their piggy bank to enjoy a holiday home for them & their kids. Most of them were like myself - childlike in our naivete, and now sadder and wiser.

And to jono2000,  who on earth, irrespective of the current price, and having read all the sob-stories that is published here, would want to buy a holiday home in Spain?        Precies may well decrease even more: the uncertainty is mega: there's no tenants around,: the fees structure, not to mention maintenance costs, are astronomic, and the banks (as most of us know) operate a 17th century code of practice.

But jono's right, we have strayed off the point - but everything is both pertinent and relative.   All information is useful..

Thread: Mortgages and return to the peseta

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