25 May 2012 18:39:

 The Bankia bailout costs are doubling every day. On May 21 it was 4 billion.Yesterday it was 9 billion. Today it is 15 billion plus. This reflects the cash being withdrawn in the unspoken run. Let's face it, you'd have to be nuts to have any money with them.

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20 May 2012 13:33:

Apologies for contiuing to highjack the thread. A couple of points I disagree with. The problem of overbuilding is everywhere. While Russians, etc might be interested in cherrypicking a few properties on the costas, I doubt they would want to buy apartments in provincial towns on the meseta, or Madrid working class suburbs, etc......which is were the real oversupply is. 

 

There are a few differences with Dubai and the Cat D12 solution. Decisions are easer to make in countries with little democratic mandate, particularly where a handful of royal families control pretty much everything. I can't see a Spanish political party recommending the destruction of a couple of million housing units, especially as they are pretty much owned by the taxpayer  (via bank bailouts) like it or not. Perhaps govt/local authorities could gift properties to poor people for a quid pro quo, such as reduced lifetime  benefits, etc. Or give them to public sector workers in return for reduced wages. The trick will be to try and wring out some benefit for the taxpayer from all this property that nobody can afford. Nobody has the aswers as we are in unchartered waters. 

I just saw the last post about people buying repossessed properties on 100|% mortgages. This might not be a bad hedge aganist Spain leaving the euro. You would get to clear the loan in pesetas nuevas.

This message was last edited by GuyT on 20/05/2012.

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19 May 2012 21:26:

 I can't understand it when people say prices can't go much lower. Suppose Goldman Sachs tell the Spanish banks that they have to write down their housing inventory by 50%, 60%, 70% in value - how would that help? Who are the people who could buy these millions of properties even at 80% reduction, let alone 50%? The banks have to crystalise their losses. Just like when you are broke and have to sell your house/car/whatever, the Spanish banks are broke, bust, bankrupt....and will HAVE to sell these properties sooner or later, they can't just hang on to them indefinitely, they are already deteriorating. The banks will in any case all pass into liquidation and be gobbled up by some other entity that sooner or later will need to realise the cash. Who is going to buy all this stuff? The 50% unemployed Spanish youngsters - who the developers originally had in mind? The ever growing group of elderly on reduced pensions? The immigrants, many of whom have buggered off back to Romania, Morocco, etc? Who? Perhaps Greeks looking for somwhere to escape.

 

To Leonardojose in DC - if that unknown woman did open your eyes, she did you a huge service. 

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18 May 2012 08:28:

 As a matter of interest, does anyone have a rough idea of the proportion/split between the number of unsold properties built with foreign buyers in mind and those built for local buyers? I drive all over Spain and everywhere, even in the smallest village, there are blocks of unsold properties. In small towns there are entire suburbs of them. Even if foreign buyers returned, I don't think it would help the banks out that much. 

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17 May 2012 11:14:

 hi castellon: what were your commitments time and moneywise?

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