Euro predictions

The EURO is getting weaker day by day AND the SPANISH ecconomy is in MELTDOWN

CAN we have some WISE predictions on WHERE it may sit in HIGH SUMMER is 1.40 possible again circa 2005

Rod

 Of course, we could be back to the predictions of last year which said it would be 1.30 or 1.40 by the summer.  Unfortunately these predictions were rather wrong.  

This site, however, is quite fascinating to watch:

Exchange Rates

I think on Euro day (1st  Feb 2002) it was 260 ptas/ 1.60 euros to the pound.

Wish it would go back to that !!!!!

remember the uk economy is reliant on european trade. I would expect 1.30 at best, if the euro implodes and the peseta returns then the peseta would be devalued and the pound would go further (eventually ). Just a thought

Nick

 It's not for me to answer for Johnxz but it's a no-brainer that anyone whose income derives from a UK or non-Euro source would like the Euro to weaken - the weaker the better. Those with assets in Euroland would see these assets devalue in relation to other currencies but this would be irrelevant unless they wanted to sell and repatriate the proceeds ouside Euroland. In the case of real estate, the horse has already bolted the stable, and currency losses from a devalued Euro are likely to be dwarfed by the overall collapse in property values of 50% plus in the unlkely event of finding a buyer. For those who want to buy more property in Spain, or improve existing property, devaluation of the Euro is desirable. Is there any significance in some words being capitalised? Yeah, bring on  €1.60!

The euro was an ill conceived idea, putting a group of countries into one big pot, history tells you it is unlikely to work. Look at Yugoslavia, look at Russia. All countries have different philosophies and mentalities, take Spain, Portugal and Greece, a chilled lifestyle ( some might say inherently lazy ). Now these countries under the diktat of Germany. Before they could adapt to market conditions, at the moment they are hamstrung by the rules and borrowing money not to grow but to service the existing debt.

These countries either suffer in silence with no growth and high employment for 5 years more I expect, yes things come round... but could easily return in another 20 years. The results of opting out would be tough on them in the short term maybe 12 months as they would need to devalue there currencies and imports cost more but eventually they would get control back. Their exports would be cheaper, holiday traffic significantly increased and the people happier.

Who knows what will happen but being someone who owns and doesnt intend to sell, I would prefer option B but may be completely misguided.

Nick

Rod

Johnzx why do you wish this to HAPPEN what positives could YOU see for YOURSELF and OTHERS

I would have around 250 Euros more per month.

 This is a useful and interesting article.......

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-1652304/Sterling-outlook-What-pound.html

I've been watching the Euro rates like a hawk for the last 14  months as I am waiting to complete.  A lot will be dependent on the Greek elections, but there  are some different scenarios. 1) Greece exits the Euro and the rest pull together, €1.35 for a short while and then  it will drop.2) The rest of the PIIGS follow Greece and it will go to €1.60 until the speculators realise that it will be a harder currency without them and it will stiffen rapidly. 3)Greece's election go the way of the TROIKA, (which they probably will) and the Euro survives, €1.15.  4)Europe erupts in turmoil and civil war and WW3 develops and then we can sit in Spanish concentration camps sipping a cheeky wee Rioja.

klaussailing, I agree and think that many of us are feeling like rabbits caught in car headlights. Which is probably why I see the dark humour in DonLochnagar's 4th prediction:

"Europe erupts in turmoil and civil war and WW3 develops and then we can sit in Spanish concentration camps sipping a cheeky wee Rioja."

HI

I ALSO HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE EURO CURRENCY FOR SEVERAL YEARS AND MY ESTIMATE IS THAT THE EURO WILL HOVER AROUND THE 1.25 EUROS TO THE POUND FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS TO THE BAILOUTS.FOR ONE REASON ALONE IF THE EURO IS DEEMMED TO HIGH IT WILL AFFECT EXPORTS BADLY AND THE GOVERNMENT AND BANKS WILL ACT SWIFTLY WITH CURRENCY SELL OFF. IF THE POUND GOES DOWN AGAINST EURO  U LOOSE TWICE , ONCE FOR GETTING LESS FOR YOUR CURRENCY AND SECONDLY U HAVE TO PUT UP WITH THE LOCAL INFLATION. BASICALLY U CANT WIN.

HERBY