Expats to be 'rescued' from Spain and Portugal!!!!

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19 Dec 2011 1:53 PM by amatista Star rating. 440 posts Send private message

Ahh I see what you mean .. well no, frankly I can´t see them doing that either. If, however, I had any money invested in a Spanish bank account I would still be tempted to move it pretty quickly.





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19 Dec 2011 2:21 PM by Acer Star rating. 1529 posts Send private message

It's a complex situation that I imagine that none of us have experienced before, but a collapse of the Euro must surely be a potential nightmare, if the situation is not managed very very tightly indeed.  Supermarkets, shops and petrol stations wouldn't know what to do - would they still want to sell goods for a possibly worthless defunct Euro ?    Services like Iberdrola might come to a grinding halt for the same reason and bank chaos in changing dd mandates. 

This might lead to riots and looting where Expats might be targeted as we're perceived with having too much money and the cause of the problem.   With powercuts there would be no communication - to me it sounds like an excellent scenario for a disaster movie.  Whilst that's flippant and the possibility of all this happening must still be extremely remote I think the UK government are right to be concerned, particularly as the Euro area politicians seem to be suffering from a serious dose of denial.



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19 Dec 2011 2:28 PM by johnzx Star rating in Spain. 5242 posts Send private message

Acer,
 
Give us a break, it's not April 1st  is it  ???
 
If the Euros did collapse there is no reason, I think, that Spain could not just tell everyone to carry on as usual using the Euro. Then at a later date if the currency was changed the banks would do just, they did on Euro Day  2002,  change the Euros to whatever the new currency would be.
 
On a day to day basis a Euro note is just a piece of paper.
 
Like Harold Wilson said when the Pound was devalued, 'The pound is your pocket is still pound?

 

 





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19 Dec 2011 2:54 PM by Acer Star rating. 1529 posts Send private message

Johnzx,

You cannot have read my posting properly - I stated ..."the possibility of all this happening must still be extremely remote"...  But it remains a concern - why otherwise would the UK government be considering the implications ?

You also seem to forget that the Euro is not a flexible currency like the British pound.  That is the nub of the problem, the financial markets are demanding an increasing yield which the countries with weaker economies like Spain cannot afford.  But the Spanish government's hands are tied by Brussels. 

Do you see a solution ? 



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19 Dec 2011 3:16 PM by Bri Star rating in North. 591 posts Send private message

 I think it is a bit grand to think the UK government is considering anything like this.  It is a few guys behind the scenes in the foreign office who have thought this might keep them busy for a while!!!!!!!   I would be surprised if anyone of consequence actually even knew about this - though of course someone must have signed a bit of paper giving the go ahead to look at it.  I would imagine without even reading it.   I do not think that we are heading for an armegeddon  - unless of course at some point down the line we find ourselves at war.  It is an economic crisis - terrible of course, but not the end of the (even the western) world!!   Currencies have crashed before.  And in defence of the original (ridiculous) article - it says it is expecting PENNILESS expats - not people from war torn Europe.  I think there is a bit of an odd interpretation of the original  thinking, and I do not believe that anyone in the civil service  thinks expats will be unsafe in Europe!!!  



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19 Dec 2011 3:54 PM by johnzx Star rating in Spain. 5242 posts Send private message

Contingency plans are being drawn up all the time in all kinds of organisations. That they are doing so in realty does not mean anything.  For example the UK has since at least 1961 had plans for a nuclear attack which are constantly being up-dated. It does not  mean an attack is likely.

 

So let's all calm down dear !!!!!





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19 Dec 2011 4:00 PM by Acer Star rating. 1529 posts Send private message

I'm not so sure Brian and I certainly remain totally calm Johnzx. 

But you both miss the point that the Euro is very different to any usual currency and the resultant problems of a crash are unknown.

It's easy to come to the wrong conclusion without the full story.  Many years ago I recall receiving a ludicrous telex advising that Lloyds of London marine hull insurance rates in the gulf were to be dramatically increased.  It went on to give the reason as due to concerns about the PLO who were planning to sink a large tanker or two in the strait of Hormuz thus, allegedly, making entry to and from the Arabian gulf impossible. 

The increase was massive and the reason given seemed silly, so I 'phoned London to be told that the truth was that a war between Iran & Iraq was imminent, but they couldn't cite this as the true reason as the UK would then be accused of stirring up hostilities.  I still thought this was very odd as nobody locally was talking about any conflict - but several months later Saddam invaded Iran.

Other than doing an impersonation of Uncle Albert's "durin the warhh" bit, I'm just trying to make the point that there may be more to this than we know about.  It might well all blow over without a problem, but people with more beautiful brains than mine seem to have a concern.  I still don't believe that it would be vaguely possible or necessary to assist repatriation, but there is some comfort in knowing that the situation is apparently being closely watched. 

We are all entitled to our opinions.  If you wish to ridicule my thoughts feel free, but please do so with some logical reason for the item being published in the press.

 


 



This message was last edited by Acer on 19/12/2011.

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19 Dec 2011 4:16 PM by johnzx Star rating in Spain. 5242 posts Send private message

Acer

 
Logically,
 
                         newspapers write stories to sell newspapers. The complete  truth rarely interferes with that.

.





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19 Dec 2011 4:33 PM by Acer Star rating. 1529 posts Send private message

Johnzx,

It always has been the perceived right of Brits to slag off which ever government is in power - a privilege envied in some countries.  As to the press, it depends which paper you read - the ones with pretty pictures tend to do as you say, but a large portion are well informed, well connected and highly professional and it is wise to listen to their observations.  Not necessarily to follow blindly, but at least to wonder if there might be some substance to the article.



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19 Dec 2011 4:44 PM by Bri Star rating in North. 591 posts Send private message

 but if we go back to the article - which I read in the Sunday Times, it does not talk about the need to stock pile food or water, or the imminent danger to UK citizens!!   I was more puzzled as to where the penniless expats came in - it did not cross my mind, nor does it now, that anyone thinks there is actual physical danger for UK citizens abroad.  The rights and wrongs of the Murdoch empire do not really come into it.  The article does not indicate that we are heading for the type of 'conflict' that has been suggested by some people on here.  And I can only say again, with great calm, that it is not the end of the world, nor indeed (in my opinion) Europe.  The real danger is that looking back historically, whenever things get really stickey economically, along comes a major war and sorts it all out.  I simply cannot see that happening here.  I would be stock piling water if I thought otherwise.    



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19 Dec 2011 4:45 PM by westport Star rating in London & Co.Mayo Ire.... 509 posts Send private message

In 25 years time, none of this will matter. The Euro will be known as the Euro Yen, the pound will be known as the Sterling Yen and the Dollar will be known as the Dollar yen. The Eurozone will be known as the EuroChina zone, the UK will be known as the United Kingom of China and the US known as the United States of China. We are in the process of a new world order. China is like a steam roller with no brakes. While the US, UK and Eurozone pay out 10's of billions for " oil " wars, the Chinese are investing buying up our assets and loaning our countries money at the same time. The US owe them trillions. It may sound crazy now, but it might not be a bad idea for your children to learn Manderin. Maybe China could pair up with North Korea, what a partnership that would be to look forward to.

Happy Xmas :-)





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19 Dec 2011 5:06 PM by johnzx Star rating in Spain. 5242 posts Send private message

Surely ‘the penniless Brits’ would be if the banks were not open, then we could not draw our pensions nor savings.
 
 However,  the Irish banks went on strike about 30 years ago and people got by, even trading personal cheques they had received in payment from customers and using IOUs
 
I personally will not loose any sleep and will have a very Happy Christmas, and hope everyone else will too.  Lets worry about it,  if it happens,  until then, its speculation.





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19 Dec 2011 5:20 PM by Bri Star rating in North. 591 posts Send private message

 Love the posting westport!!!   But johnzx - not being able to get your hands on the money immediately is a cash flow problem.  People would simply stop the transfer from the UK to Spain - probably well in advance.  But I agree, I wont be losing sleep either, though I must admit I was cheered hugely by a trip to Madrid last month, where there was little evidence of panic and indeed, evidence of continued spending.  Though there, as here in the UK, the big queues are for lottery tickets.  I wont be joining that queue either, but I wish everyone luck who does fancy their chances.      



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19 Dec 2011 10:17 PM by wodger Star rating. 28 posts Send private message

If you look at the serial number of euro notes you will see that they all start with a letter, our family in Greece have got rid of all of their Greek euros and will only accept low value Greek euro notes in transactions.

The letters you need to know are

Y     Greece

V     Spain

M     Portugal

S     Italy

T     Ireland

U    France

The best euro notes are considered to be

N     Austria & X Germany.

Our family are not worried about receiving Spanish euros as yet.

Since the holocaust our family have always kept funds in a variety of currencies & precious stones & metals. As a child I was always taught not to keep all my eggs in one basket. I have ditched all of my euro savings in favour of US dollars which are known & accepted all over the world.

 





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20 Dec 2011 12:15 PM by D_B_S Star rating. 178 posts Send private message

Final auction of the year on Thursday for Spanish debt - that will be a good indicator of what the market thinks of Spanish debt and the ability of the country to repay. Not so good for Italy Monday.

As many of you say monies coming from UK so not worried so long as you can get access. There are 1M UK citizens in Spain not all are investors or pensioners, many ahve to make a living from the local economy.

Me I left Europe to escape the expected down turn and will enjoy my Xmas in Bardados at Sandy Lane but be back in Dubai for the 1st Test on the 17th Jan.

David



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20 Dec 2011 1:48 PM by D_B_S Star rating. 178 posts Send private message

The final auction was Tuesday so some relief until the new year.

See the following from WSJ:

Spain cleared its last funding obstacle of the year with a strong auction, selling more Treasury bills than planned and at sharply lower yields than previously, as sentiment in the euro zone's debt market has improved after the European Central Bank's move to provide three-year loans to banks.

The Spanish Treasury sold €5.64 billion ($7.33 billion) of three- and six-month Treasury, above the maximum targeted €4.5 billion. The tender echoed the Treasury's very strong bond auction last week, when it sold €6 billion of bonds, nearly twice its earlier maximum target.

"Today's Spanish T-bill auction was another illustration that the sentiment has picked up recently, definitely helped by the new measures announced by the ECB, most importantly the upcoming three-year tender," said Jan von Gerich, chief analyst at Nordea.

Spain paid an average yield of 1.735% on the three-month T-bills, down from 5.11% at the previous sale on Nov. 22, and it paid an average yield of 2.435%, down from 5.227%.

Demand was very strong, totaling €18.43 billion.

Spanish government-bond prices extended earlier gains after the tender. But analysts warned against overoptimism as Spain, along with the euro zone's other issuers, will have to sell government bonds totaling about €800 billion next year, and even more Treasury bills.

David



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20 Dec 2011 1:54 PM by Acer Star rating. 1529 posts Send private message

David,

Many thanks for your informative post.  I've never understood the strange ways of the financial markets, their U turn seems without reason and extraordinary, but it seems we can all breathe a sigh of relief for the time being.



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20 Dec 2011 2:01 PM by D_B_S Star rating. 178 posts Send private message

Acer,

having spent all my working life working in the Financial Markets believe me when I say in the present World Circumstances 'The Masters of The Universe' have far more power than Politons _ they don't have to be elected and are not elected by anyone. They have only one gole and that's to make as much money as possible for their stakeholders.

It's the market to watch not what the elected governments do - they will do what the are told to do by the guys who hold the bonds or insure the bonds.

David



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20 Dec 2011 6:28 PM by Foxilady Star rating in surrey. 277 posts Send private message

Foxilady´s avatar

Very interesting blog.  Westport, we have a couple of schools in London teaching Mandarin to their infant children, so not such a wild idea.   The reference to Ireland 30 years ago  when there was a banking strike inferred there really wasn't a problem, this was due to the fact that back then the man in the street in Eire used cash, but of course that would be a totally different scenario if that were to happen now.  It is wise not to have ones eggs all in one basket, especially now.  We keep savings in different denominations in order to try and minimise risk.  Our world is now run by Goldman Sachs and not politicians, simple as that.  IMHO I do believe the eurozone will collapse and we will all return to the way it was before, with differences of course.  I have always been a euro skeptic and thought from the get go it would never work, we shall see.  I used to live in Spain in the late 60's and i adored it, and I would like to see it return to those values.  In fact I would like to see the whole of the continent return to their "differences" and not have this homogenised version.  I dislike it intensely when I walk down a street in Prague or Spain and think am I still in the UK.  I liked having different currencies as well, like going to Italy and having loadsa money lol.  I hope we return to those days.  I did read recently that UK politicians were looking at the £14 million they pay to pensioners in Span for fuel allowances ie they were questioning the validity of making such payments in these austere times.  But I do not know if they are actually planning any changes, they're "just looking". 



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21 Dec 2011 9:57 AM by Damu Star rating. 4 posts Send private message

When did the Chinese start using the Yen? Maybe I missed the Japanese swapping with the Yuan.

The British have always had contingency plans. Wherever in the world there is a British Embassy or Consulate, there will be some form of contingency plan to evacuate the tax dodgers. I work in an Arabic country and although it is the richest country in the world, (So it must be safe yes?),  the British Embassy still have a contingency plan to evacuate all the Brits should things in the region go A over T.

We still have our Island mentality, thank God. Baden Powell was telling us for years to "Be Prepared". The guys at the Foreign Office, when not writing spy thrillers, do have a job to do and drafting contingency plans and stuff is just tickety boo right down their street, don't ya know, blimey charlie.

The FO will not accept my spanish address as being my place of abode. I have to give them a UK address and no chance of a drop off at Madrid.

Well, must go. Have to put another barrel of oil on the fire. It's a chilly 24C.

Stay Calm. Keep Smiling...

P.S.

(Whispered)..... I bet the yanks have a contingency plan to evacuate all US nationals from Spain...... via UK.





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